Newbie here, and someone who has never done any Forex trading before, but I have a question regarding Brexit and the effect it will have on the pound.
I’m British but I’m living in Australia at the moment. I have £15,000 tied up in a UK savings account, and am assuming that should Brexit go ahead that there will be a sharp drop in the value of the pound, given what happened the day after the vote.
Would it be advisable, therefore, to transfer the savings I have in my UK account into my Australian one shortly before March 29th, before, once there has been a sharp drop in the pound, transferring it back into my UK account?
What happens - short-term - to the GBP probably depends on the perception of the quality of the deal. If it looks like good basis for future trade, the price might not move much. Key will be ease of trade movement across borders and ease of travel. Major disruptions or delays at airports / ports / Channel Tunnel will sink the GBP.
But after a few weeks, who knows, maybe back to today’s price?
If the exit is delayed, expect a fall as uncertainty will then continue, plus a greater possibility of a change of PM before the revised exit date.
In the case of major disruptions, would it be likely that the pound would sink before the UK actually leaves (if it becomes apparent that is what will happen), or only after March 29th?
It’ll react as soon as we know what’s happening, so if a disruptive deal or a delay is confirmed today, literally in the next hour, it could happen this morning.
Its always possible a positive deal will make the GBP rise…
IMO as an (otherwise unqualified to say) Brit, I think that almost any certainty will boost the pound. Uncertainty is built into the price. Delay means it will be more or less the same (still uncertain) and any sort of deal will boost it up - I even think that a managed no deal (once the initial knee jerk reaction is over) will mean it is stable or rising - we can deal with “it” - we just don’t know what "it " is at the moment.
Slightly OT but the best description of Brexit I have heard is that - half the country voted for sweet, half the country voted for savoury. Now we have bacon trifle.
You’re right Wight, any certainty will cause the GBP to rise. How much or how far is dependent.
Certainty coming from a decision means other possible GBP-negative outcomes are eliminated - a General Election with Labour elected or further erosion of Conservative MP base or a larger Labour popular vote even if with no more MPs’ seats. These would be long-term and very negative on GBP.
To be honest I don’t think anyone will know what’s going to happen to the pound until it happens unfortunately. But if your worried then yes I would get it all over now.
@Nomad12… Left the Old World behind and embracing the New… You can get 3 - 3.5% return on cash atm from Australian Banks (ING)… which has to be an improvement on the UK…
With the drop in home loans, stamp duty and struggling retail, Australia isn’t the safe haven it once was… Just be aware that the Reserve rate outlook is flat or downward, definitely not up… ensuring a drop in the AUD as well… 1.5 - 2% could be on the cards for deposits by the EOY.
I can imagine the day when we will wish to re-join the EU. Probably we would apply for and we would only be offered a sort of provisional or associate membership for a trial period, maybe even with periodic referendums. No doubt it would cost us an arm and a leg.
I doubt a day like that would come. That is if you leave. The way things are going May can’t win. If you leave without a deal - bad. If you leave with a deal - bad. If you make a new referendum and vote stay - bad again.
There simply isn’t an option that would let May catch a break and she can kiss her career goodbye. That’s just the way I see it.
The division is too great and whatever the decision there will always be a huge part that will be angry with it.
In anyway, I do believe that the brits are cappable of unititing and working together to dig the country/economy out of the hole in which this whole Brexit debackle has put you.
Thats pretty much true. the one good thing thats come out of it all is that now the general public know how much of a load of rubbish our members of parliment are. they are literally useless.
we wont want to apply to get back in the Eu because it will crumble. Once the Uk leaves then the knock on affect will occur. Theres too much difference in the lowest economy providers and the largest providers in europe for the euro to survive long term. it will fall, even germany who are powerhouses are starting to decline, look ad the GDP and the bank rates.
The uk are a big importer of many products across eurpoe, they wil want our business still,and new deals wil be made, mid to long term the UK will thrive.
They extrapolate from odds offered by Betfair on the impact of a no-deal Brexit on various prices -
UK banks - very negative
GBP - very negative, GBP to fall to 1985 levels
gold - very positive
However, a no-deal Brexit looks an unlikely option.
