Question about Brexit

If you’re really worried, you can always hedge.

For example, if you want to hedge £15,000, you can short 15 micro lots of GBP/AUD.

Lol he doesnt trade, i dont think he would start off by hedging 15K on the forex markets haha.

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What happens if the United Kingdom wants to return to the UE?

I can imagine the day when we will wish to re-join the EU. Probably we would apply for and we would only be offered a sort of provisional or associate membership for a trial period, maybe even with periodic referendums. No doubt it would cost us an arm and a leg.

I doubt a day like that would come. That is if you leave. The way things are going May can’t win. If you leave without a deal - bad. If you leave with a deal - bad. If you make a new referendum and vote stay - bad again.
There simply isn’t an option that would let May catch a break and she can kiss her career goodbye. That’s just the way I see it.
The division is too great and whatever the decision there will always be a huge part that will be angry with it.
In anyway, I do believe that the brits are cappable of unititing and working together to dig the country/economy out of the hole in which this whole Brexit debackle has put you.


Thats pretty much true. the one good thing thats come out of it all is that now the general public know how much of a load of rubbish our members of parliment are. they are literally useless.

we wont want to apply to get back in the Eu because it will crumble. Once the Uk leaves then the knock on affect will occur. Theres too much difference in the lowest economy providers and the largest providers in europe for the euro to survive long term. it will fall, even germany who are powerhouses are starting to decline, look ad the GDP and the bank rates.
The uk are a big importer of many products across eurpoe, they wil want our business still,and new deals wil be made, mid to long term the UK will thrive.

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What is the impact of Brexit On stocks, Forex, gold?

Was just reading about this in The Economist.

They extrapolate from odds offered by Betfair on the impact of a no-deal Brexit on various prices -
UK banks - very negative
GBP - very negative, GBP to fall to 1985 levels
gold - very positive

However, a no-deal Brexit looks an unlikely option.

Avoid the market is better than hedging; basically hedging is a particular trading style and not suitable to all.

Business always wants more business, it’s the oxygen that keeps trade alive.

The EU will not crumble, nor will the UK - business will survive on both sides.

Trade deals are not easily made, there is a forest of bureaucracy and politics to navigate, e.g the plan of Liam Fox was to roll over existing EU deals with non EU countries. He said it would be easy in a no deal scenario. The plan was for 40 such deals by yesterday - he has 8 including with the Palestinian Authority and Faroe Islands.

The easiest of these should have been CHF and so it was, they are the largest of the 8.

Problem is that our astute politicians often forget that it’s business that conduct the deals and decisions on buying/selling never take account of politics.

The Swiss deal in a no deal situation is useless, if in Switzerland I buy from UK tariff free under the Liam Fox agreement, then attempt to resell to my largest market - the EU - I will face sales tariffs - country of origin rules.

Perhaps an explanation of why the PM has changed from no deal vs bad deal etc.

The chances of a no deal by default have increased quite substantially.

Edit: Uk will not be able to reapply with GBP as it’s currency so the exit will be permanent when it happens.

There is a lot of sense and truth in this post !

If you want to see some of the thought behind it look here

Sinking Ship

However, there is nothing I can argue with here either !

@peterma and I hold opposing views on the EU - basically because we are looking at different things !

He is clearly a very intelligent man with an agenda which revolves entirely around his personal wellbeing and prosperity - And who can argue with that ?

I have no such tie with the EU and have the luxury of being able to look at the Uk Membership from a somewhat detatched viewpoint

My own view is that in the longer term, the Euro is a “Dead man walking” and if we are still associated with it WHEN the “Euro Banks” collapse, Brussels will insist that we throw in a nation destroying amount of money to “Stem the collapse of the Banks” Not the same thing at all

I take a more fundamental view - as I was at something else in this thread ;

Bearish false coinage !

We now have “May’s deal” as the only option the government will countenance - and it doesn’t seem to matter whether you talk to “Remoaners” or “brexiteers” - we all seem to agree that “May’s deal” is the absolute worst - worse than “Remain” and also worse than WTO terms !

Only 14% of the population are content with “May’s deal” it seems - I guess they are the one’s who shouldn’t really be let out in the streets on their own !

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The World’s Top 10 Largest Economies
United States. Despite facing challenges at the domestic level along with a rapidly transforming global landscape, the U.S. economy is still the largest in the world with a nominal GDP forecast to exceed USD 21 trillion in 2019. …
China. …
Japan. …
Germany. …
""""_United Kingdom. …""
India. …
France. …

Read above. No matter how you trade you can’t predict, where the pound, country or business will go with our without a deal’ smooth or rough exit or remain. The only thing you can predict is how much you’re prepared to risk. Use your stops or counter measures, for newbie’s its “stops and” you can avoid any short term disastrous fluctuations cause that’s all it will be

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i gues withint he next month or so we wil find out what happens. i still stand by the fact the uk will be better off out of the EU than to stay in.

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Well it’s now in the open - ‘no deal’ seems to be off the table for the PM although no official explanation from No.10 as to why.

Robt Peston has more contacts than I would want and his analysis of why:

One point though - was this predictable from a trading POV? - I posted on Sat re the change in tack by PM - Mon cable opened 3010 - this morning is 3185.

What has happened after the referendum?

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It may be as @peterma contends that the issue is the Irish border

It seems though that not all “Irish” are favourably impressed with the EU and anti UK ! Here’s one who believes - He says that he voted “No” in the first Irish Referendum and voted “No” again when the EU made them vote again so they could come up wiith the “Right Answer” (which they did) :roll_eyes:

Brexit is such a pain man :joy:

But how bad will the short term be?

Well lets face it, the world is not going to end is it, the country isnt going to end is it. As long as were all breathing then its fine. I think it wil be ok personally

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Yea I’m done talking about it now, nobody knowas what’s going on especially those in charge