Thanks for all those charts man! God this elliot wave stuff is SO confusing and hard to apply.
No it isnât, this is the trap that most traders fall into, trying too hard, when there is an obvious easy Elliot Wave you use it to trade, when it isnât donât bother, donât trade, stay out of the market, when the analysis becomes hard, trading profitably becomes hard, so stay out of the market and wait until it becomes easier more predictable, donât make it hard, wait for the market to come to you.
Forex doesnât follow any rules!
LOL⌠you have an incredible knack of stating the obvious in places it doesnât need stating
Iâm really starting to think that just thinking about EW could have a detrimental effect on my theoretical profits on virtual trades that donât existâŚ
Can we not just talk like normal like and leave the fire and brimstone stuff to the side for like a minute.
Before attempting a new wave count on a fresh chart, I make sure to checkout the prevailing count over at ActionForex. While at it be sure to download every free pdf on that site and copy-paste the â10 Lessons in EWâ html tutorial, print in A5-on-A4 MSword, boil and drink soupâŚ
From the first chart, an overlay of A$ on E$ (E$ on top), there is big corr btw the two pairs, and consequently their wave counts. The main purpose of it is to help label the A$ count in a manner consistent with the other charts in terms of wave degree.
So from the other three charts one can tell the EW count. The second chart A$_Wk is labeled cycle II and I feel it is short in distance and time than an ideal book illustration, however it ends in vicinity of 0.728/0.782% retracement of cycle I. Another thing, the higher timeframes show extreme bullish in long-term, I try to visualize the fundamentals behind these pair, and considering strong correlation with E$, I feel it might not add up.
On A$_d1 minor 3 of int(5)pri[1]cycleIII is labeled as having an extending first-wave minute[i] with [v] being the shortest - splendid fibo-extention r/ship check it out (:youâve got to know your degrees). Havenât cracked fibo-time methods still quite crude; anybody, anyone?
Taking trades, Iâm watching for a bounce off 1.9900 and/or 1.9970-75 to go short 140pmaxTP playing today. A bounce off 1.9700 is something to watch for especially if the current bearish from minute [i]â goes down and finishes as a two-step [ii]ââ, and then a break through 1.9900 & 1.9970 bullish to go all-hard long. Past 1.9535 something breaks in the count. Basically, I can help count but I cant tell you one specific side to jump now or then. But with these, any high volume situation with one eye on E$-h1 should present a dual opportunity?
Hope that helps, without trying too hard - as stated elsewhere one overthinks today for a thoughtless tomorrow - you set your count today less work thereafter. On lower than h4 youâll have to put in mobb work & still be wrong most of the time - however extensive EWT work on the h1 in backtest hindsight is necessary to horn your EW-skills, and to catch a good entry in these volatile times. For actual trades its more desirable and profitable to sort of ignore what the count is saying (or set it to say shift-up & alt-down at same time) and just take out anything h1 jumping/bouncing s+r/ikh lines in London/NY sessions.
Smart trading yâall
ps: I had made the post, then realised I posted twice, then deleted the one with the chart attachments, same way one would forget to set right stops. Here are late charts anyway
Thanks, Iâll check out that Actionforex analysis.
beautifully said