HI,
I’m new to elliot waves.The attachment picture is a analyse that I have done today.It’s eurusd h1 but as you can see I have counted 5 waves but what is the last wave that I have signed it with two question mark?I don’t think wave 5 has been finished because It does not take wave 4 extreme out.Please tell me what do you see and What is your idea?Does my counting is true?
Thanks
Hi,
IMO, I would extend the 3rd wave from point 2, to your 1st question mark point. That way, it is longer than the rest like it’s supposed to be, and wave 4 does not overlap back into the wave 2’s area.
The rule in this case for bypassing one of the correction sections is called the “greater in time & price” rule which simply means a section, or wave, is considered complete when a correction is greater in time (# of bars) or price (range) than any previous correction of the trend section.
Thank you for your help.
You mean for example wave 4 is completed if wave 4 correction time and price is more than wave 2 ?
No, the new wave 4 correction is greater in price range than where you had it, so we just skip over that one. This helps to keep counting simple when there seems to be more than 5 waves.
No i mean in general not my chart.
if in a impulsive wave, wave 4 is less in time and price than wave 2 it’s indicating that it’s not probably a valid wave 4 and we shouldn’t count it.Is that true?
I didn’t know about that rule. It fits in perfect.
I usually avoid too much EW on h1 because that way I loose so much before a good run. Looking at h4 timeframe, the two wave decline from 1.4160 could be wave [b] minute, pointing bullish next. Or it could be wave (i) bearish, (ii) bullish correction - it doesnt retrace 100% of [i] - and the start of wave (iii) bearish as we now think?
On h1 timeframe I’d ever be in an if-fi situation. The wave you ask about is wave i’ blue incomplete on my charts. If price completes the current minute degree bearish as a five wave i then I’d watch for a two-wave minute correction before going all-out short. If price retraces and overlaps the purple i - your point 1 - then the whole count breaks upto highest high point 1.4160, to adopt the brown bullish count where the bearish is a sort of flat to continue bullish correction past 1.4160.
Elliot Waves are overrated I’m afraid.
Those who use them will defend them with intense passion, so I’m not gonna enter a debate here.
Then what was the point of giving your opinion?
hno2005 was simply trying to broaden his education about a very interesting trading subject.
Education is very underrated I’m afraid.
In general, I believe it applies to corrective waves, not impulse waves. There could be a 2, or more, “possible” corrective waves between any larger impulse wave (waves within waves) which when counted, like in your example, resulted in some extra waves at the end. So to keep it simple, you can apply this rule to override a questionable corrective wave if it makes a better fit to a more symmetrical 5-3 wave.
I found that rule in Robert Miner’s book “High Probability Trading Strategies”. Sure, in EW world, there are waves with more or less than 5 impulse waves, but they can get complicated. Miner just wanted to keep it simple and focus on the 5-3 wave pattern and this rule I suppose resulted from that.
I did a lot of work on EWs at one point, I even charted the waves and correlated them to news events, so I know what I’m talking about, but the same simple rule applies to EWs just as anything else, if it’s obvious it’s right, the more questions you need to ask, the less valid the setup.
The answers are in waiting for the simplicity, not understanding the complex.
Lol, “this elliot pattern”.
I believe good old TA beats Elliot any day.
Elliott Waves ARE TA…
Lol, but are they “good old”?
Ok ok, I’ll refrain!
Elliot wave theory has been around a lot longer than most indicator based technical analysis.
Most successful traders will go for an indicator-based or s+r&PA-based system since it worked for them that way. I have evolved into EW I believe I can teach but do I say? You’re the one who cant tell minute from super-primary, but you dont say.
~~~~~~*
Cant stop the shining…
Up until the next surprise suprise, lol (<-??)
Most indicators are a waste of space.
I like looking for Elliot waves in daily charts and I’ve got two here that have been a long time under the microscope.
Unfortunately the first chart of GbpUsd is I believe void due to the 3rd rule stated here:
1- wave 3 can never be the shortest impulse wave
2- wave 2 can never exceed the start of wave 1
3- wave 4 can never overlap wave 1 price area
Ok so I’m hoping to do better with my next effort, this AudUsd. The rules above I think it passes, but there is, if I understand correctly, potentially a problem with depth of correction.
The long wave 3 would ideally be accompagned by a wave A landing in the same area as wave 4. In my case wave A is much lower than 4?
I would be keen to see what others have for comparison and thought sharing.
Forex doesn’t follow any rules!
Elliot Waves will always be subjective, as much as we would like to be able to use them as fixed a set of rules as possible, you can’t.
Not to dismiss their usefulness though, and as usual the longer the time frame the more they stand, but the thing is the more developed the wave is as in your image, the weaker the ‘rules’ are.
On the charts above I would say that the pattern is part of a meandering 4th wave on a larger timeframe, so that makes the patterns weaker, and also as you say I don’t think wave 3 is extended enough to make the analysis of any great use.
