Rat Race to Financial Freedom

[monkeymonkeyman]

Updates for Potential Trades Week Commencing 12/11/2018

NZD/GBP

Price has pushed passed resistance and has risen to the descending trend-line:

With Theresa May struggling to convince her cabinet of the benefits of her Brexit plan it looks more likely that this pair may stage a breakout, especially with very little to move the pair on the NZD side due to a lack of economic announcements this week.

AUD/CAD

The pair has taken a slight turn to the negative side today:

I am still looking for a descent to the ascending trend-line to try and get in on the potential breakout. With a few high impact economic announcements schedules for the Ozzie on Thursday we might see this giving direction to the pair.

GBP/AUD

It seems to have been a good decision for me to wait on this one has price has continued to head lower than the previous low. With all the negativity surrounding the cable at the beginning of this week I will have to wait for a change in sentiment until we might see some bullish momentum in the pair.

[monkeymonkeyman]

Updates

USD/JPY

Hey all, so loads of movement in the markets today - unfortunately, but not surprisingly, very little for this pair:

As price hasn’t yet managed to break above the 2018 high it looks like the ascending triangle is being maintained - because of the high amount of resistance round the level that price is at currently, if we do see a breakout we could be looking at some really strong bullish price action.

Here’s hoping, so we can rake in some major pips!

EUR/CHF

So I closed this trade today due to quite a significant bounce off of previous support and also the broken descending trend-line:

I got out for a loss of 25 pips, which is pretty much break even, but with this bounce and the MACD and MA’s on the 4 hourly confirming bullish price action I thought that it was a good time to get out.

More than this though, I am thinking that whilst I am in this trade I may be missing trades on other Euro or swissy crosses that I cant trade because of the potential conflict in crossovers. My thought process is to cut, what looks like becoming, a very uncertain trade to try and get into a potentially much more profitable trade.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on these guys

[monkeymonkeyman]

Updates for potential trades 14/11/2018

NZD/GBP

A very exciting day for cable with anything being possible - if an agreement is bashed out in parliament regarding the Brexit proposal then we could see the bearish momentum needed to enter this trade:

Price has certainly stalled right on the descending trend-line and around a previous strong area of resistance - MACD and MA’s look likely to cross with RSI pointing to bearish momentum - however, everything depends on the outcome of today.

I would like to see a bit more price action before I set my target entry and exit levels.

AUD/CAD

With the Ozzie holding out against mixed Chinese data and the CAD suffering from the continued fall in oil prices:

It is difficult to see where the bearish pressure might come from to bring price back down so I have an opportunity to get in and trade. However, the markets do have a way of surprising so it is a case of wait and see with this pair!

GBP/AUD

This pair could be a great trade very soon - with a lack of direction in the Ozzie (although that could change with Thursdays announcements) it is all down to the pound to give the bullish momentum.

With the MACD and the MA’s just about to cross and RSI suggesting bullish momentum it looks like this could be a good trade.

On the 4 hourly, price has broken that descending trend-line and and then bounced nicely off of broken trend-line support:

My target entry will be around the 18070 - 18080 level, just above previous resistance on the 4 hourly chart, putting my stop loss around the 17790 level.

This is certainly more than my normal risk level at around 300 pips, however, the upside could be the previous high around 18700 - giving a 600 pip upside and a nice 2:1 R/R ratio.

AUD/CHF

This pair has reached a very nice descending trend-line and looks poised to make a move in either direction:

It looks like we might be about to get the cross on the MACD and MA’s on the daily chart along with bearish suggestions from the RSI, just coming back in from that overbought level.

With nothing out for the Swissy this week but employment figures for the Ozzie coming out on Thursday it is most likely that this will drive price action.

I’ll look for an entry level around the 7150 mark with a stop loss around the 7350 - just above previous highs and a target at 6850 - just below previous lows.

Let me know thoughts guys - anyone trading or thinking about trading these?

[monkeymonkeyman]

Updates

USD/JPY

Hey all,

Apologies for the delay in updates - I am currently in search of a new job and that has been taking up a bit of my time.

So, interestingly, my psychology has been trying to get the better of me with a little voice in my head telling me to either raise my stop loss or get out of this trade as soon as we heard the more hawkish comments coming from so FED execs.

However, I think what I have to remember is that when I placed the trade and my stop loss it was all pre-determined when I was thinking logically and clearly and, therefore, I believe that my stop-loss should, for the time being, stay where it is.

So, some selling seen on Friday in USD - bringing price down to the ascending trend-line. However, it then broke through that 11276 level which offered some previous support/resistance:

and it looks like the next level may be around the 11200 level. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a small uplift in price through to the middle of this week as RSI is deep into oversold territory, but I think this may be limited as the daily chart still shows some room on the RSI until it reached oversold.

A look at the hourly chart for more clarity:

…shows that price would need to break out of this descending trend-line to have a chance of showing bullish momentum on the 4 hourly and daily time-frames.

With little in the way of liquidity for the USD due to national holidays at the end of the week there may be little this week to give much direction to the currency.

I’ll keep updating on this trade - let me know if you are currently trading this one and what you are currently thinking.

[monkeymonkeyman]

updates 20/11/18

usd/jpy

Price rebounded a little today - potentially due to risk aversion:

With the sell-off in equities and riskier assets like the AUD this may have been due to the nature of the USD as a traditional safe haven currency.

With my SL still around the 11119 level I’m happy to hold and and see if the pair can drive back above the ascending trendline.

It’s an anything can happen week with so many factors that could potentially influence price - but as always, a trader can only follow and react to price action!

[monkeymonkeyman]

Potential Trade

AUD/CHF

So seen this trade set up today and seriously considering taking it later on this evening:

With some heavy negative momentum, a cross on the MACD and the RSI dipping below 50 a shirt trade looks hopefully.

Price seems to be being driven mostly by negative sentiment around AUD - negative comments coming out of the RBA today surrounding the fact that any rate hikes are not going to be soon plus fears of a reesculation in trade wars and general risk aversion.

The amount of risk aversion due to worrying international factors could signal near term bearish momentum in the AUD as well as positive momentum in the CHF for the same reason -

Anyone thinking about trading this pair?

[jafooly]

Good to see a fellow UK trader on here @monkeymonkeyman.

Some interesting info regarding sentiment and all that stuff. I’ll admit I never look at any of that, but I’ve joined you in going short, if you’ve taken yours that is.

From a top down analysis, looks like a good short.

Update:

Very nice call from yourself. Nice little earner right there, but will possibly hold for a little longer.

[monkeymonkeyman]

Great to meet a fellow trader too!

I did take the trade at around the 7180 level - SL just above previous high and targeting 6843.

Interesting you said about the sentiment - to be honest I find it useful to have a reason why I think the pair might go in the direction I am trading, especially as I am trading medium-long term time frames.

However, the .markets do seem to have a habit of turning on a dime and I know a few traders that think that everything they need to know is already in the price.

Which time frame are you trading on?

[monkeymonkeyman]

AUD/CHF

Hey all, took this trade yesterday.

At the moment I am expecting a little upside momentum as 4 hourly chart was showing oversold levels on RSI.

I am expecting price to either push back up to previous support at 7248 level or back up to previous high at 7300 before we see any more bearish momentum on the daily chart.

I could have waited a little longer to get in at a better price, however, there is always a chance that the markets will do completely the opposite to what you think they will do and that would eat into my risk/reward ratio.

It’s going to be a very interesting 2 weeks for this pair!

[jafooly]

Indeed, always good to have as many solid, positive reasons to enter the trade.

I trade weekly or monthly usually, lately just trading the daily and holding for 2-3 days.

[monkeymonkeyman]

Ok, fair. What are you targeting for your aud/chf trade?

[monkeymonkeyman]

updates 22/11/18

usd/jpy

So price bounced back inside the ascending trendline yesterday:

With markets closed in US today and tomorrow there may not be much movement to close out the trading week.

4 hourly time frame shows that price has only just made it inside that trendline:

So there is still a chance that price could dip lower again on negative sentiment.

Whilst FED rhetoric surrounding a possible pullback in the number and consistency of rate hike raises next year might give bearish pressure to the pair, the trade war with China has been largely positive for the USD. With that in mind, and the fact that it doesn’t look like the 2 sides will agree at the end of this month we may get more upside.

AUD/CHF

Price moved up a little yesterday and appears to be hovering and waiting for direction:

Overall, risk appetite seemed to improve a little yesterday and could be the reason for an uptick in AUD. However, with so many macroeconomic factors that could, depending on their outcome, away sentiment to risk averse, I am still overall bearish on AUD.

[jafooly]

No real pinpoint targets really.

I look for the price to go into an area of value, not just for myself in terms of realistic profit I’m happy with but also where buyers might step in and hit the gas so its a good time to get out anyway.

[monkeymonkeyman]

yea good points - your target area is also where I have set my sights - I have never scaled in before but I am thinking to try this technique out if price breaks through the target area

[monkeymonkeyman]

updates week commencing 26th nov

USD/JPY

Quite a large push on the pair today:

There seems to be some sugestion that the pair is entering a bearish cycle based on Elliot wave theory and also a divergence in the macd and RSI compared to price.

I’m learning fairly quickly to take heed from commentators, however, price can always surprise.

There are some mid tier events around the middle of the week and continuing through to the end of the week - it’s possible that these could have a larger impact if they surprise either way as they could give further clues on whether the fed will taper back their rate hikes.

However, the main drivers of price are likely to be fed speeches and minutes with clues on the future rate hike plans.

I think for me I will position myself with caution and look at upping my stop loss to just below the 11230 level if price suddenly surprises to the downside - at the moment I want to see how price acts over the next few days before making a decision.

I’m really learning that managing the trade is one of the trickiest parts - there is a lot of psychology - pulling and pushing your mindset - I am starting to understand why there is a sect of traders who feel that all you need to look at is price.

I do feel though that it is helpful to have an understanding of the underlying sentiment behind a currency and that reacting to price via intelligent positioning, through stop losses, is the best way forward.

Let me know if you are trading this and have any thoughts - update on my aud/chf short tomorrow.

Trade smart

[monkeymonkeyman]

updates 27th november

USD/JPY

the pair continued to push up today seeming to benefit from risk aversion and downward pressure on both the euro and the pound:

We have just had a cross on the MACD and ma’s and RSI continues to push higher.

On the 4 hourly, however, RSI is pointing to overbought levels suggesting we may be in for a bit of a retracement before we get any solid direction on the pair:

With fed speakers and minutes over the next few days and then the g20 meeting at the weekend, where we will likely find out whether the Donald will be slapping a load more tariffs on China, there is likely to be a whole lot of movement in USD.

AUD/CHF

The pair is continuing to struggle to find direction at the moment:

With a lack of fundamentals for both currencies this week the focus my be the g20 - as one of Australia’s biggest trading partners, impacts to the Chinese economy normally affect the Ozzie - if there is no agreement over the weekend then this may negatively impact AUD.

The 4 hourly shows quite a lot of support around the 7200 level at the moment, but a strong break below this level could lead to bearish momentum - MACD looks to be crossing signalling there my be a negative move to come:

Let me know any thoughts or trades you have made

[monkeymonkeyman]

Updates 28/11/2018

USD/JPY

A really interesting day on the pair. Price spent most of the day moving up with expectations around Jerome Powell’s speech being a bit more hawkish. However, it was more to the dovish side than markets were expecting and this seems to have driven price down:

Price then began to stabilise around the 11350 level and that’s where we are now.

On the 4 hourly we can see the MA and MACD about to cross and the RSI is heading down towards that 50 level:

These indicators are suggesting that we may see some more bearish movement towards the end of the week and with the FOMC minutes and more speeches expected this may be the case as we move towards the end of this triangle on the daily chart:

[monkeymonkeyman]

Updates 30/12/2018

USD/JPY

Hey all!! A very merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you! My apologies about the long delay in updates - I lost my internet for 2 weeks and then I quit my job and then Xmas rolled around the corner so a fairly hectic month.

Anyway, you’re probably not interested in my sob story so here’s the updates;

Unfortunately I got caught out by the change in sentiment on the USD. With the FED relatively suddenly deciding that the economy was not as strong as they thought it was and then issues with trade tensions the bears got the best of the USD.

I actually got out before where my stop loss was set as there was a large bearish move below the ascending trend-line on the 20th December - I got out with a loss of £13.39 which is 1.3% of my account:

As it turns out, I was right to get out before my stop loss hit as price proceeded down to where it was set and lower.

Analysis

I think in hindsight my entry was good - I waited until my indicators gave me the right signals and their was strong bullish price action backed up by fundamentals - however, I think after price failed to lift passed the previous high - around 8th November - I should have looked to get out at the 114 level and then got back in if price had broken above the previous high. This still would have given me 100 pips - all be it with a bit of fees.

It seems that when price starts showing a wedge formation it becomes more and more 50:50 which way price will move and, therefore, the odds of being in in the right direction decrease - it therefore seems more prudent to take profit at a sensible high/low and then take advantage of the break out. Any thoughts on this?

AUD/CHF

Unfortunately this one didn’t come off either. I was unlucky to be stopped out on the gap-up in the Ozzie when the USA and China announced they would start working together again towards a trade deal:

I ended up losing £19.71 - 1.97% of my capital

Analysis

Interestingly, there was a possibility for me to get back in as the Ozzie began to show bearish momentum again and the MA’s and MACD crossed and the RSI dipped below 50 around the 5th December - I wouldn’t have been able to get my 2:1 ratio but it would have still been 1.5:1 - I think I was weary of the warning that I have seen to not get back into a trade for revenge purposes but maybe when indicators are pointing in the right direction backed up by price action then this is a prudent strategy.

[monkeymonkeyman]

Hi @jafooly,

How did your AUD/CHF trade turn out - unfortunately I got stopped out on the Gap-up 2nd December - did you manage to take profit before then?

[A1lenTrader]

@monkeymonkeyman Think he’s been banned m8…!!!