@A1lenTrader - ah the joys of young children! Well done on the wins - are you using shorter time-frames than the daily and 4 hourly? Trading the majors or other pairs as well?
I’m looking at the majors and there crosses 28 pairs in total, i started off trading all day when i first started on the 5m and 15min but utilizing the 1hr 4hr and daily as well had more spare time then. Now I’m back in my full time job after taking time off to look after my daughter so I’m looking for setups before bed and first thing in morning before work around 5:30am GMT. So I’m looking to stay in my positions for longer and looking at 1hr 4hr charts more now. I dont have alot of capital to use either and with the leverage cap makes it a lot harder to achieve what i was doing before.
Updates to potential trades 2nd Jan 2019
So there was definitely a huge amount of volatility in the market today! Hopefully not too many lost money and loads of you are looking at a huge pip gain.
Here’s a few updates to my potential trades post:
EUR/USD
The pair got beaten heavily lower today:
No significant levels broken on the daily or 4 hourly though so still a wait and see for me on this one at the moment.
NZD/CAD
Price shot down today breaking the ascending trend-line and breaking minor support on the 4 hourly:
Because RSI is currently in oversold territory I am going to wait for a retracement and then I am thinking to go short on the pair. however, I want to work out a bit more about the fundamentals driving the price to make sure its not just low liquidity driving the move.
AUD/USD
The pair dropped below that area of resistance today:
2 potential areas of resistance that price called stall at on the way down but neither give me a big enough risk to reward ratio so i am going to just follow the pair for the moment.
NZD/USD
Price also jumped below the ascending trend-line on this pair:
However, I am not ready to go short yet. With RSI on both daily and 4 hourly heading towards that oversold level I fell like there could be a retracement.
Also, interestingly on the 4 hourly chart where the descending trend-line and ascending trend-line cross looks like a possible area for price to retrace to:
I am going to hang on for the moment and see where price takes us.
EUR/JPY
A big break below that area of support today:
With RSI deep in the oversold area I’m thinking to hang on before placing a trade - perhaps look for a retracement to enter and look to go short towards previous large areas of support.
USD/JPY
Clearly the Yen was the currency taking centre stage today - the pair took another dive - I was thinking about placing a trade but then saw a significant area of resistance at around the 10800 level:
I am thinking that this could be an area that price bounces off of and then makes its second retracement - potentially confirming the down-trend - for this reason I am going to wait and see.
EUR/AUD
With weakness in both currencies a long tailed doji formed today:
Still potential for this pair to break either way…
GBP/JPY
Pair took a big bearish move today jumping below support:
However, RSI on daily chart is heavily in oversold area and so I will wait to see if a retracement to broken area of support takes place.
GBP/AUD
Again, with weakness in both currencies price was static:
Still potential for price to go either way and next 2 weeks is going to be a very interesting time for cable.
AUD/CAD
As I write this the Ozzie and pound are getting sold seriously hard!!:
However, things seem to be returning to normal - another sign perhaps that it is worth waiting til next week to enter the market?
Again with this pair a break below that ascending trend-line - waiting on a potential retracement before jumping in.
CAD/CHF
pair got bid higher today and MACD is close to crossing:
Still a chance for this pair to head higher but I would want to see confirmation from at least one of the other indicators first.
Let me know if you are in guys and how its going.
Updates to potential trades 03/01/2019
NZD/USD
Price has rebounded today and has pulled away from oversold conditions on both the daily and 4 hourly charts:
I will keep an eye on the pair at the moment but I think if we get more of a retracement for a better entry then I will look to go short on the pair.
CAD/CHF
Price has rebounded today and is starting to show some bullish momentum;
However, when looking at the 4 hourly chart price has not yet broken above a minor support and resistance level at the 7322 area;
Also, so far on the daily chart, I only have a cross on the MACD but the MA’s have yet to cross and the RSI has not yet pushed above the mid level.
Interestingly, my mind is telling me to go for it but I know that patience can be a virtue in the markets and so I will hang on for a little longer.
Trade Updates 07/01/2019
CAD/CHF
Hey all! So my indicators were pointing towards a buy signal on this pair so I went ahead and bought at 7363 on Friday.
There was a strong cross on the MACD as well as the MA’s and the RSI has pushed above that 50 level. As well as this, 3 strong bullish candles pointed towards a push up to the 7735 level which was the previous high - however, when price has rebounded off of this level before it has pushed higher but 7735 will be my target 1;
I also wanted to see price push above that 7336 level which was a rebound high 26th Dec as well as an area of support 6th September;
I have also seen a potential break out of the downtrend for oil prices on the daily chart which could give CAD some positive momentum;
Let me know if you are trading this one or have any opinions.
Happy trading!
Updates to Potential Trades 07/01/18
NZD/GBP
Price really has come down to a strong level of support and resistance on the daily chart after that breakout;
MACD and MA’s are very close to crossing and if they do we could see bullish momentum. My hesitation on this is that several hundred MP’s are due to meet Theresa May on Tuesday and if there is good news in the camp then this could be positive for the pound.
However, good news surrounding the 6th round of talks regarding the China-US taffiffs could also be positive for the NZD.
At the moment I am going to hang on and look at the middle of the week for confirmation of direction before I place any trades.
NZD/JPY
Interestingly, price jumped below that huge area if support in the flash crash, which it also did back in June 2016;
However, price has now jumped back into positive territory. All 3 indicators have yet to give a buy signal and I would suspect that China-US talks will give direction to the pair.
I’m looking to get in around the 7400 level with my target at 7800 and my stop just below 7200.
GBP/AUD
I was really looking at trading this one and have been going back and forth about whether or not to;
With a negative turn off of a retracement to that broken ascending trend-line the pair is pointing to negative territory. However, I would have to put my stop at 18196 - which is the previous high - negating the flash crash high - and with the current entry of around 17850 level this is more than my strategy allows for risk percentage.
I am also concerned that any positive news on Brexit on Tuesday or bad news surrounding US - china trade relations could knock the Ozzie for 6.
However, I have also seen on the 4 hourly chart that a possible head and shoulders pattern could be in the works;
With this I could wait for a break of the neckline and then potentially place my stop just above the broken neckline area giving a much better risk percentage.
GBP/JPY
This pair I have mainly seen a downtrend on the 4 hourly chart that is a potential trade;
Not a trade at this moment in time but if the cable-comdoll crosses don’t play out then this could end up being a better trade.
EUR/AUD
Huge break of that ascending trend-line but then price has stopped dead on that previous area of support/resistance;
Currently the logical place to put my stop would be around the 16330 area which at the current price levels is 3.5% of my capital - minimum.
However, I think a rebound off of this descending trend-line on the 4 hourly and a break of the 16000 level would allow me to place my stop either at rebound level or broken support/resistance level and give me a much better risk percentage.
USD/JPY
This pair continues it’s downward march as continuing worries over the trade war as well as the government shutdown weigh on USD and the JPY continues to provide a safe haven for investors;
Price appears to be about to rebound off of the new descending trend-line. To gain an entry point I will look to trade the pair on the 4 hourly;
A bounce off the descending trend-line could lead to MA and MACD crosses as well as RSI dipping below that 50 level.
I would look to enter around 10739 and place my stop at 10887. Aiming for target 1 at 10443.
NZD/USD
Price still flirts with broken support line of ascending trend-line;
I have to be careful with this one because my ascending trend-line is not a strong one and so this pair could just as easily carry on that bullish momentum. That previous low at 6600 could be a new low pushing to a new high for the start of a new up-trend.
Very much a wait and see which direction price takes.
AUD/USD
Pair is at a very interesting area of support which goes all the way back to 2015;
From that breakout and now to a retracement to that previous area of support around the 7040 level - price then dipped a little to the 6920 area but I think this could be a return to normality after the flash crash.
However, because ill be targeting that previous high around the 7400 area my stop will be relatively tight - therefore, looking at the 4 hourly I will wait to see if price retests that support level before getting in as I don’t want to prematurely stopped out by a re-test;
This is particularly relevant as price reached the area that price is at now the last time it rebounded off the 7040 level.
NZD/CAD
Again with this pair price broke the ascending trend-line;
A look at the 4 hourly suggests that a retest of the 9122 area might be a good place to go short on the pair;
Happy trading guys!
Trade update 08/01/2019
CAD/CHF
Hey guys! Just an update on my Canadian Swissy trade.
Price edging up at the moment - not a whole lot of movement to report as the market is likely waiting for the host of CAD data out this week.
13:30 today is the Trade balance but as a medium tier event - unlikely to move the market much unless there is a very nasty surprise.
Tomorrow is the big day with the BOC rate decision. Currently it is expected that the rate will remain at 1.75% and so, in itself, it is unlikely to move the markets unless that figure changes.
The interest rate decision and policy report later in the day, however, could bring some volatility to the markets depending on the stance adopted by the central bank.
For my trade, price could easily swing both ways - I think a more hawkish stance from the Central Bank could drive price past its current level and towards my target but dovish rhetoric could sink price back towards that area of support at 7200 - however, unless there are any particularly nasty surprises I think this level will hold and price may try again to break its current level.
Oil price continues to show positive momentum at the moment;
However, price has reached an area of previous broken support which also coincides with that 50 day moving average. A rebound and subsequent bullish momentum for oil could also drive and increase in the CAD.
Happy trading!
Potential Trade Updates 08/01/2019
NZD/GBP
Price very much staying a very tight range as yesterday;
With very little data out for the Kiwi, it seems that traders are very much waiting on Brexit developments - or lack thereof.
NZD/JPY
Similar with this pair - price has moved very little over the last day and a half;
Very likely that traders are waiting for any news or developments in trade war talks - this event is likely to bring high volatility to the pair.
GBP/AUD
Price reached a level of support and started to rebound yesterday;
I am still looking for price to move up to that 18059 level to complete the head and shoulders pattern and then short from there.
GBP/JPY
Interestingly, price has now reached that descending trend-line;
On the 4 hourly I am still waiting for the indicators to show any change in sentiment but a negative turn could open up this pair to a short trade.
EUR/AUD
This pair has bounced and headed back towards that trend-line on the 4 hourly;
Still looking to go short if price breaks that 16000 significant area of support and aim for that previous low at 15346.
USD/JPY
Price is still sticking to that trend-line at the moment;
Traders waiting patiently for trade talk developments before we are likely to get an idea of where price is heading in this pair.
With RSI in oversold territory, it suggests that that retracement might be running out of steam and negative momentum may take over. However, those macroeconomic factors may easily override that.
NZD/USD
This pair have started to show potential for some negative momentum;
A breakdown in trade talks could drive negative price action in the pair, giving the opportunity to short.
I am keeping my options open at the moment though as the daily chart is showing the possibility of bullish momentum - with the crossing of MA’s and the MACD, as well as the RSI pushing above the mid-level.
Price action is likely to become more clear as we go through those trade talks.
AUD/USD
Price continues to struggle to find direction around the 7135 area;
A strong push above this level could pave the way for bullish momentum back up the the previous high.
Happy trading guys!
Trade Updates 09\01/2019
Hey guys! here’s the latest on my trades made;
CAD/CHF
The pair pushed a little higher yesterday, but even with the continued push higher in oil prices the upside momentum on the pair is limited;
This indicates that price is all about the BOC minutes today and so the focus will likely be on the outcome of that.
Indicators all still in positive territory for the time being but on the daily chart RSI is getting to those oversold levels so there may be a small retracement before we see any upside momentum;
NZD/USD
I took this trade yesterday and got in at 6727 with my stop placed just above that previous high on the 4 hourly at 6787;
As we can see price has moved up this morning and has actually broken that previous high. I haven’t been stopped out yet but price seems to be continuing that upward momentum.
The NZD is strong against the majority of its counterparts at the moment, potentially due to the risk on sentiment due to renewed hopes for an agreement in the trade war.
USD also getting a jolt lower due to ratings agencies warning of a cut for US rating if the government shutdown continues.
However, the FOMC minutes later on today are likely to be price moving so it will be interesting to see what happens then.
Happy trading guys!
Updates to Trades 09/01/2018
NZD/USD
Well guys got stopped out by the bullish momentum on the pair;
It was a risk as the daily chart was showing bullish momentum. However, the risk was very low.
I think I didn’t realise how much the NZD would be boosted by risk on vibes as a result of the china - US trade talks as well as USD getting punched by the ratings agencies statements as well as more dovish comments from FED. All in all it may have been too much of a risk but because the risk percentage was small compared to the potential reward I still think the trade could have played out.
Any thoughts on what I could have done better?
Potential Trades
EUR/USD
Price broke above key area of resistance;
RSI showing oversold levels on 4 hourly so trading plan will look to wait for price to bounce back to broken area of resistance or new potential ascending trend-line for entry point and aim for Sep 18 highs as target 1.
GBP/CAD
Price is in tight trading range;
Currently price hasn’t reached bottom of range - more potential down-side momentum for pair maybe because of Brexit fears - must also remember that cannot trade this one if I am still in CAD/CHF trade due to conflict of interests.
NZD/USD
Stopped out on this one today on a short trade. However, the daily chart is showing bullish momentum;
Potential to wait for a retest of potential new uptrend or broken downtrend to enter trade.
EUR/JPY
Big retracement to broken area of support as well as touching 50 MA;
Look for indicators on 4 hourly chart to point to bearish momentum with target 1 at previous support.
USD/JPY
Really strong bearish signal on the 4 hourly chart for the pair today;
MACD showing return to descending trend-line as well as cross on MACD and MA’s and price bouncing off 50MA. Seriously considering entering this trade and placing stop above previous high for a risk of 1% with target back to previous low at 10460 area.
EUR/AUD
Price continues to trend sideways on the pair;
Still waiting for a break below that 16000 level to place a trade.
GBP/JPY
Price rebounded to key area of support;
However, RSI has just bounced out of oversold levels as well as MACD getting down to previous lows. Potentially a rebound in the making…
GBP/AUD
Price has broken down on daily chart;
I think this could be a really good trade because positive news on us china trade negotiations should be bullish for AUD and Brexit woes continue to weigh on cable.
4 hourly points to a strong down-trend in play with the opportunity to place my stop just above the previous high;
I am very keen to enter this trade.
Hey @A1lenTrader!
Ah yes I see - those pesky jobs can really get in the way of enjoying trading!
Unfortunately necessary to get to the amount of capital necessary to be able to trade full time.
What are your thoughts on USD/JPY?
Trade Updates 10/01/2019
GBP/AUD
So yesterday I entered the trade at 17823, placing my stop just above the previous high on the 4 hourly chart at 17965 and with a target 1 of 17600 and target 2 of 17300 area;
I feel with Brexit concerns still very much at the fore likely to put bearish pressure on the pound in conjunction with positive reports about the china us trade deal likely being bullish for AUD there is a good chance to get some pips out of this one.
There is some strong bearish momentum so far today with the MACD histogram showing increasing bearish bars and still a long way to go before the signal lines reach their previous low points. The RSI has pushed below the mid-level and continues downwards and a push below the 50MA will signal increasing bearish momentum - hopefully seeing price head all the way down to the 17300 major support area.
The 4 hourly continues to show bearish momentum;
However, the MACD histogram is showing decreased bearish momentum as well as the signal lines heading towards their lowest levels. RSI is also getting towards oversold levels.
I think a rebound off the 17600 area is likely with then a retest of the previous low - if from this retest price starts to show bearish momentum again I will look to scale in.
CAD/CHF
Price has retested that 7350 area;
The RSI on the daily remains above the mid-level and the MACD signal lines continue to push higher with the histrogram showing even bullish momentum. Price is currently meeting the 50 MA and a push above this will signal further bullish momentum.
The 4 hourly also shows price bouncing off that previous area of support;
A recross of the MA 5 and10 and the MACD signal lines could point towards further bullish momentum especially as when price last reached my target area the MACD reached the 62 level - This is also backed up by room to push up on the RSI;
There is also the possibility of a further pullback as happened in March last year before a return to bullish momentum.
But oil prices continue heading higher and yesterday Brent Crude pushed above that 50MA;
This could signal further advances in oil prices which would be bullish for CAD. The BOC minutes also showed a slightly more cautious tone but less dovish than had been expected giving bit of a positive jolt to CAD.
Anyone trading these at the moment or in any other interesting crosses?
Potential Trade Updates 10/01/2019
EUR/USD
4 hourly shows retracement in motion;
Looking for price to head back to 11460 level - RSI is high, although it has pulled back from overbought level. MACD signal lines showing potential for small bearish shift and the same with the histogram - giving more room for bullish moves on a bounce.
Daily chart MACD shows continuation of positive momentum and RSI has pushed strongly above mid-level with more room for manoeuvre ;
GBP/CAD
Price is suffering bearish action again today, continuing to head towards that supporting trend-line;
Indicators are neutral at the moment on the daily chart with room for movement in either direction.
the 4 hourly shows MACD signal lines and RSI at low levels but still with potential to fall further as they have in the past.
At the moment I would not take the trade as it would conflict with my GBP/AUD and CAD/CHF trade. However, also I would be aware of the fundamentals - with parliament still no closer to reaching an agreement on Brexit there is a possibility that GBP will suffer more bearish movement - also oil prices continue to push higher from historic lows - potentially bullish for CAD - if i was going to trade tgis one I would definitely want to see strong indications that a bounce had completed backed up by good fundamentals.
NZD/USD
A nice cross of the MA’s and the MCAD signal lines as well as the histogram starting to show increasing bullish momentum. RSI has pushed nicely above mid-level with room for bullish movement;
On the 4 hourly price has not quite retraced to the ascending trend-line - pointing to a small amount of further downside price action to come. With continued worries surrounding the state of the US economy as well as a more dovish FED and the continuation of the US government shutdown, as well as an improved outlook for china us trade relations being negative for USD and positive for NZD respectively - it is not hard to see where bullish momentum for the pair might come from.
The trick will be to enter at the right risk/reward ratio and the use of the 1 hourly chart in this case might also help;
EUR/JPY
A closer look at this pair reveals that although price has retraced to that broken area of support the MACD signal lines are still at historic lows an have just crossed, a bullish indicator, with the histogram also starting to show bullish momentum;
These signals can of course quickly turn around but are worth noting.
the 4 hourly shows very much middle of the range price action at the moment pointing to the possibility for price to push in either direction.
The progress in the China US trade talks is likely to be bearish for the JPY due to risk off vibes - potentially being positive for the pair - there was a bit of a scare round German data yesterday but this seems to have been assuaged by improved data today potentially also being bullish for the pair.
Still a wait and see on this one but cautious of shorting at current levels.
USD/JPY
Seriously thinking about going short on this pair with an automatic exit - although price has reached that area of descending trend-line resistance, the MACD signal lines are at a major support area as well as the histogram pointing to waning bearish momentum. The RSI is also flirting with oversold territory;
There may be some bearish price action still to come but I think it will be limited. I think the USD has enough bearish sentiment behind it to carry the pair lower but with risk on vibes I think there will be limited bullish momentum behind JPY to drive the pair lower.
The 4 hourly, however, shows a very nice set-up - price has bounced off the 50 MA and the MACD signal lines and MA’s have shown a nice cross with the histogram starting to show bearish momentum. RSI is relatively low, however, there is room for it to fall past that 30 line and deeper into oversold;
With no end in sight to the government shutdown and continued woes over the US economy i see a bit more bearish momentum to come.
Also entering at this level - just aiming for the 10600 level can give me a 1:2 risk reward ration.
Sorry for the late reply, really busy week hardly had time to sleep let alone look at a chart.
My thoughts on the usd/jpy are that being a usd pair the market movers will push this up a bit more as it looks to be still net long & less net short than last week, and there is a Major, major resistance level above. Then when enough are in they will pull the rug from underneath them all .But it’s a hard one to call looking back on the chart . For me any way.
Hopefully with a good system you will be in and out either way at a profit… 
USD/JPY :
- A look back to 2020,
Note the Purple Lines:
How Many Long Players in the Game.???
These aren’t Exactly to the Pip But it’s how i look at the game Before i play it and work out the best options if it went either way …
I did take a Long on this Last night could have bagged 49 pips but my TP is in the middle of those purple lines was going to check on Wednesday but had day off work today so just had a quick peep.
Took my Buy Stop and took it out just After But still in profit, moved Stop loss up now to cover that loss and still some profit.
Going to let it run and close tomorrow if it hasn’t hit SL.
Nearly there : Moved SL up to +100 pips and TP to +150 pips see if it hits by end of today, if not will close at +100 pips
…
