Rat Race to Financial Freedom

updates 20/11/18

usd/jpy

Price rebounded a little today - potentially due to risk aversion:

With the sell-off in equities and riskier assets like the AUD this may have been due to the nature of the USD as a traditional safe haven currency.

With my SL still around the 11119 level I’m happy to hold and and see if the pair can drive back above the ascending trendline.

It’s an anything can happen week with so many factors that could potentially influence price - but as always, a trader can only follow and react to price action!

Potential Trade

AUD/CHF

So seen this trade set up today and seriously considering taking it later on this evening:

With some heavy negative momentum, a cross on the MACD and the RSI dipping below 50 a shirt trade looks hopefully.

Price seems to be being driven mostly by negative sentiment around AUD - negative comments coming out of the RBA today surrounding the fact that any rate hikes are not going to be soon plus fears of a reesculation in trade wars and general risk aversion.

The amount of risk aversion due to worrying international factors could signal near term bearish momentum in the AUD as well as positive momentum in the CHF for the same reason -

Anyone thinking about trading this pair?

Good to see a fellow UK trader on here @monkeymonkeyman.

Some interesting info regarding sentiment and all that stuff. I’ll admit I never look at any of that, but I’ve joined you in going short, if you’ve taken yours that is.

From a top down analysis, looks like a good short.

Update:

Very nice call from yourself. Nice little earner right there, but will possibly hold for a little longer.

Great to meet a fellow trader too!

I did take the trade at around the 7180 level - SL just above previous high and targeting 6843.

Interesting you said about the sentiment - to be honest I find it useful to have a reason why I think the pair might go in the direction I am trading, especially as I am trading medium-long term time frames.

However, the .markets do seem to have a habit of turning on a dime and I know a few traders that think that everything they need to know is already in the price.

Which time frame are you trading on?

AUD/CHF

Hey all, took this trade yesterday.

At the moment I am expecting a little upside momentum as 4 hourly chart was showing oversold levels on RSI.

I am expecting price to either push back up to previous support at 7248 level or back up to previous high at 7300 before we see any more bearish momentum on the daily chart.

I could have waited a little longer to get in at a better price, however, there is always a chance that the markets will do completely the opposite to what you think they will do and that would eat into my risk/reward ratio.

It’s going to be a very interesting 2 weeks for this pair!

Indeed, always good to have as many solid, positive reasons to enter the trade.

I trade weekly or monthly usually, lately just trading the daily and holding for 2-3 days.

Ok, fair. What are you targeting for your aud/chf trade?

updates 22/11/18

usd/jpy

So price bounced back inside the ascending trendline yesterday:

With markets closed in US today and tomorrow there may not be much movement to close out the trading week.

4 hourly time frame shows that price has only just made it inside that trendline:

So there is still a chance that price could dip lower again on negative sentiment.

Whilst FED rhetoric surrounding a possible pullback in the number and consistency of rate hike raises next year might give bearish pressure to the pair, the trade war with China has been largely positive for the USD. With that in mind, and the fact that it doesn’t look like the 2 sides will agree at the end of this month we may get more upside.

AUD/CHF

Price moved up a little yesterday and appears to be hovering and waiting for direction:

Overall, risk appetite seemed to improve a little yesterday and could be the reason for an uptick in AUD. However, with so many macroeconomic factors that could, depending on their outcome, away sentiment to risk averse, I am still overall bearish on AUD.

No real pinpoint targets really.

I look for the price to go into an area of value, not just for myself in terms of realistic profit I’m happy with but also where buyers might step in and hit the gas so its a good time to get out anyway.

1 Like

yea good points - your target area is also where I have set my sights - I have never scaled in before but I am thinking to try this technique out if price breaks through the target area

updates week commencing 26th nov

USD/JPY

Quite a large push on the pair today:

There seems to be some sugestion that the pair is entering a bearish cycle based on Elliot wave theory and also a divergence in the macd and RSI compared to price.

I’m learning fairly quickly to take heed from commentators, however, price can always surprise.

There are some mid tier events around the middle of the week and continuing through to the end of the week - it’s possible that these could have a larger impact if they surprise either way as they could give further clues on whether the fed will taper back their rate hikes.

However, the main drivers of price are likely to be fed speeches and minutes with clues on the future rate hike plans.

I think for me I will position myself with caution and look at upping my stop loss to just below the 11230 level if price suddenly surprises to the downside - at the moment I want to see how price acts over the next few days before making a decision.

I’m really learning that managing the trade is one of the trickiest parts - there is a lot of psychology - pulling and pushing your mindset - I am starting to understand why there is a sect of traders who feel that all you need to look at is price.

I do feel though that it is helpful to have an understanding of the underlying sentiment behind a currency and that reacting to price via intelligent positioning, through stop losses, is the best way forward.

Let me know if you are trading this and have any thoughts - update on my aud/chf short tomorrow.

Trade smart

updates 27th november

USD/JPY

the pair continued to push up today seeming to benefit from risk aversion and downward pressure on both the euro and the pound:

We have just had a cross on the MACD and ma’s and RSI continues to push higher.

On the 4 hourly, however, RSI is pointing to overbought levels suggesting we may be in for a bit of a retracement before we get any solid direction on the pair:

With fed speakers and minutes over the next few days and then the g20 meeting at the weekend, where we will likely find out whether the Donald will be slapping a load more tariffs on China, there is likely to be a whole lot of movement in USD.

AUD/CHF

The pair is continuing to struggle to find direction at the moment:

With a lack of fundamentals for both currencies this week the focus my be the g20 - as one of Australia’s biggest trading partners, impacts to the Chinese economy normally affect the Ozzie - if there is no agreement over the weekend then this may negatively impact AUD.

The 4 hourly shows quite a lot of support around the 7200 level at the moment, but a strong break below this level could lead to bearish momentum - MACD looks to be crossing signalling there my be a negative move to come:

Let me know any thoughts or trades you have made

Updates 28/11/2018

USD/JPY

A really interesting day on the pair. Price spent most of the day moving up with expectations around Jerome Powell’s speech being a bit more hawkish. However, it was more to the dovish side than markets were expecting and this seems to have driven price down:

Price then began to stabilise around the 11350 level and that’s where we are now.

On the 4 hourly we can see the MA and MACD about to cross and the RSI is heading down towards that 50 level:

These indicators are suggesting that we may see some more bearish movement towards the end of the week and with the FOMC minutes and more speeches expected this may be the case as we move towards the end of this triangle on the daily chart:

Updates 30/12/2018

USD/JPY

Hey all!! A very merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you! My apologies about the long delay in updates - I lost my internet for 2 weeks and then I quit my job and then Xmas rolled around the corner so a fairly hectic month.

Anyway, you’re probably not interested in my sob story so here’s the updates;

Unfortunately I got caught out by the change in sentiment on the USD. With the FED relatively suddenly deciding that the economy was not as strong as they thought it was and then issues with trade tensions the bears got the best of the USD.

I actually got out before where my stop loss was set as there was a large bearish move below the ascending trend-line on the 20th December - I got out with a loss of £13.39 which is 1.3% of my account:

As it turns out, I was right to get out before my stop loss hit as price proceeded down to where it was set and lower.

Analysis

I think in hindsight my entry was good - I waited until my indicators gave me the right signals and their was strong bullish price action backed up by fundamentals - however, I think after price failed to lift passed the previous high - around 8th November - I should have looked to get out at the 114 level and then got back in if price had broken above the previous high. This still would have given me 100 pips - all be it with a bit of fees.

It seems that when price starts showing a wedge formation it becomes more and more 50:50 which way price will move and, therefore, the odds of being in in the right direction decrease - it therefore seems more prudent to take profit at a sensible high/low and then take advantage of the break out. Any thoughts on this?

AUD/CHF

Unfortunately this one didn’t come off either. I was unlucky to be stopped out on the gap-up in the Ozzie when the USA and China announced they would start working together again towards a trade deal:

I ended up losing £19.71 - 1.97% of my capital

Analysis

Interestingly, there was a possibility for me to get back in as the Ozzie began to show bearish momentum again and the MA’s and MACD crossed and the RSI dipped below 50 around the 5th December - I wouldn’t have been able to get my 2:1 ratio but it would have still been 1.5:1 - I think I was weary of the warning that I have seen to not get back into a trade for revenge purposes but maybe when indicators are pointing in the right direction backed up by price action then this is a prudent strategy.

Hi @jafooly,

How did your AUD/CHF trade turn out - unfortunately I got stopped out on the Gap-up 2nd December - did you manage to take profit before then?

@monkeymonkeyman Think he’s been banned m8…!!!

Potential Trades Week beginning 31/12/2018

EUR/USD

Well, nothing like kicking off the new year with a load of potential trades - have to be careful tomorrow though because with little liquidity and traders with happy go lucky trigger fingers with the New Year festivities there’s likely to be some mental price action.

EUR/USD is an interesting one - been in a lacklustre down-trend since middle of April 2018 - seems to be becoming more and more range bound - maybe this is due to the change in FED sentiment towards the rate hikes and the improvement in EUR sentiment due to possibility of a rate hike by ECB next year and the Italian government getting their act together - price is likely reflecting traders wait and see mentality.

Price has reached an area of strong support and resistance at the 11336 area;

Perhaps a chance for a rebound up to the previous high of 11821 and further up to 12522 if this level is broken

A look at the 4 hourly chart seems to suggest that a break above the 11452 area would be psychologically significant and could lead price towards the 11821 level - I would look to place my entry at 11500 and then a stop at around the 11336 area, just below that previous low;

@A1lenTrader - ah ok thanks mate - didn’ see the notification next to his name. How is your trading going - any potential trades for the upcoming week?

Might give it a week or two closed two winners on Friday which i entered on Thursday +35 and +45 pips GBP/USD , but I’m tied up with family so can’t really do alot at the moment, 4yr old stuck to me like glue from when i wake up to when i go to sleep bless her… :joy:

NZD/CAD

Could be a rebound from the ascending trend-line in store for this pair as price lols at a previous area of resistance;

A look at the 4 hour chart shows price trapped in a range;

A break above that 9241 level could give an upside target of circa 250 pips to that previous high at 9500 and then upwards of 9750 from there. possibility to place the stop at around the 9200 level just below top area of resistance if a breakout happened and that area potentially became support.

There is, of course, also the potential for price to break out and start moving down in which case target prices could be the 8701 level or the 8294 level - both previous lows.

AUD/USD

This pair forming a very interesting pattern with a break out of the descending trend and then a reversal back to that previous low around the 7059 level;

With RSI in the oversold zone there is a potential for the pair to retrace to 7400 level.

A look at the 4 hourly chart shows the pair reaching the very very end of a descending triangle - a break either way is possible;

NZD/USD

This pair looking very much like AUD/USD;

In contrast to AUD/USD price action is showing a much sharper retracement potentially pointing towards a sharper trend if price rebounds.

A look at the 4 hourly shows price having to do a bit more legwork before it breaks out of that descending trend.

EUR/JPY

This pair could be interesting - price is very much range bound but with MACD and RSI showing rising peaks there is the opportunity for price to head back up towards that 13312 level;

With the option to put a stop just below heavy area of support there could be a good risk to reward ratio to be gained.

A look at the 4 hourly shows that a push above that 12700 level may be a good entry level and give a better risk/reward ratio.

USD/JPY

Caught out on my previous long trade on this pair it now looks like a potential short - with a strong bearish move below the descending trend-line and now a small retracement, there is potential for the pair to break below that 11000 level and head towards previous lows at the 10800 and 10463 area;

A look at the 4 hourly suggests the beginning of a downtrend but a wait and see approach is prudent especially over the coming few days;

EUR/AUD

A really interesting pattern forming on this pair;

A break of the ascending trend-line followed by a massive retracement - potential for the pair to rebound and head back towards 15500 level - with the chance to garner some serious pips!!

A look at the 4 hourly shows an uptrend still in play but a strong break below that 16000 level could set the pair up for some bearish momentuum

GBP/JPY

Pair could be entering a range - RSI is showing oversold and if we get a cross of the MACD and MA’s then a move back up to the 14895 level might be possible;

A look at the 4 hourly suggests a strong move above the 14100 level could be an entry point;

Caution is prudent with this pair though as the vote on the Brexit deal will be happening on the 11th jan - expect a shed load of volatility.

GBP/AUD

As with EUR/AUD a break of the ascending trend-line followed by a large retracement to the broken area;

Again a look at the 4 hourly shows the potential for a short, potentially with an entry below the 18000 level, aiming for the previous low at 17200;

If you fancy going short on the pound due to Brexit craziness or fancy a long on the Ozzie - this could be the pair - expect a lot of volatility over the next 3 months or so especially though.

AUD/CAD

Pair has formed interesting pattern with break of descending trend-line and then retraced to 9600 psychological level - potential of rebound and then a push up to 9900 level and then 10300 level;

the 4 hourly is showing an equal triangle with the potential for a break out to either side;

CAD/CHF

Pair forming distinct range and price reaching a strong area of resistance on daily chart;

With RSI in the oversold zone there could be a rebound in store for this pair with a potential target at 7590 and 7735.