Started trading anew strategy with an ECN broker. So far so good with the results 87.50% success rate on trades average growth per month £1 to £3.50 tested demo and live over 2 months. So far the losses were minimal i.e. not wipe-out events.
Just done an excel sheet with 1 year projections and with my working capital apparently can make on £20m before June next year (actually much more).
Now of course this sounds way to good to be true…but the numbers and evidence make support its viability…but then as i project more than one year the outcome just gets way too ridiculous to countenance.
So I need a reality check please. I invite the naysayers to tell me all the reasons why this is unrealistic and will not happen.
Although I am a huge fan of backtesting, or rather used to be, and have been doing so for years… a true test to any system is active ongoing forward testing in a live account.
Even if you only have a dollar in the account and you risk 5 pennies of it to trade the system forward in time, you will get more verfiable and realistic results than simply relying soley off of backtested data. If you can not successfully make pennies off a dollar consistently, you can not make money off of any amount of money long term. I personally have developed several “perfect systems” in the past only to realize after a few successful trades forward tested in real time with real capital… the system was not perfect after all. Typically they would fail to work successfully after a week or less. I would research, try to eridicate the flaws, and may have even given my system a longer life span, but eventually all the predessors to my current system failed. Keep in mind I have made 100’s of original systems. I have over 2gbs of excel spreadsheet files alone.
I’m on week two of forward testing and I have made well over 500 pips profit real talk. Does that mean I have a successful system? Not so much. Even a year of forward tested data is still not enough to determine the success of a system. A truly successful system in my opion isn’t measured by potential or projected cash income. True success is measure in long term profitability even if its only 1% growth per month. Even after a year a profitable system can fail. One must understand that research and inovation are constant facters to trade successfully long term wether it be a thousand or a million dollar goal.
well said Leg0nd. !!!
I will add my 2c worth
a 350% growth rate per month sounds like a massive risk system …
… but the biggest clue - is one you stated yourself …"So far the losses were minimal i.e. not wipe-out events."
So Far … that means you have not got risk control in place and if the market moved such that you would have taken a massive loss - then all your gains gone?
So what risk management is in place in this system?
Sorry poorp communication skills on my part. Mine was all forward testing on demo an live account, I cant find a back tester to accurately model what I do,not enough data…so far have not found it anyway.
The risk management is execution based. The theoretical risk is minimal indeed and the real risk when taking slippage etc into account is the biggest problem. Of course that is out of my control
Most of the people start with a demo account and they make money in it so they think it is the same all the time and that in the live account they will also make some good money , this might be true but guys its not about 1 day performance its about dedication and hard work you have to trade on the demo for at least 6 months so you can know how the news effect the market .
Money management and assumptions of good weeks and months may show you forex balances well in the millions in a year or so, but they’re optimistic results.
It all comes down to how you handle yourself every trading week.
Sometimes having a loss or two may make you revenge trade or something and it may cause you to lose more money which may take you a coupla steps back.
If your projected earnings are achievable thru calculations, then it’s very much possible to do so!
But to get there just break it down into small targets.
Keep the millions as your goal,
Break it down into monthly and weekly objectives.
It may take 3 weeks to hit one weeks target balance but still it’ll give you a small objective to work towards while having the millions in your vision.
Always know that it’s possible, but you gotta keep yourself in check.