There have been 47 recessions in the USA the first being back the the 1700s. And there have been many stock market crashes that have happened with the first real market crash being recorded as the Tulip market crashed way back in 1637.
The point being is that history is very good at repeating itself and very good at predicting future behaviour. Governments, business and we as traders seem to never learn. Why is that?? Is it complacency?? Is it stupidity?? Is it greed or is it apathy?? My guess is a combination of them all. Coronavirus has once again caused chaos in the market place but as history has shown us, we will come out of this and life will return to normal.
Recessions and stock market crashes destroy the lives of everyday people. These people do not understand the nature of the financial markets and of the business people and government officials that are involved with creating the scenarios that see these ordinary hardworking folk lose their homes, their jobs, their financial security, their standard of living.
So what is my point?? My point is that it is crucial to understand the importance of history. Whilst we may not learn from it, although we should, knowing and understanding history helps us create a plan that brings society back to normality.
But what of todayâs society?? What we are witnessing by these marxists black lives matter rioters, is a willingness to believe that cancelling anything that is based in historical facts as a way of improving the future. Tearing down statues changing the name of buildings, ignoring and or erasing major historical people and events, is the best way to improve society and create a better standard of living for those in the future. But is it really?? Will it create a better future?? If so how?? Or will the actions of these rioters, pushing for political change, cast the world into a deeper recession or even a major depression that could see millions die. These rioters and marxists sympathisers say capitalism has failed and that the only way to really improve lives is with socialism or even communism. But again as history has shown us millions of people have perished under the rule of socialism and communism.
The upcoming election in the USA could be the most disastrous result in history. Depending on who is elected the result of the next election could seriously change the balance of power and the safety and security of western civilisation for decades even centuries to come. With China, a communist country, now pushing to become the most powerful and dominate country in the world, the election of a party that will bow to the emerging Chinese power will be disastrous for not only the standard of living for everyday Americans but the safety and security of western civilisation. Could this just be history repeating itself??
There is less than 100 days to go until we know the outcome of the election. Lets hope common sense prevails.
I agree with your assessment to a point - but the fact is we donât have capitalism.
That is something the left donât understand. They think bailing out the rich is capitalism - well it ainât itâs socialism, corporatism or crony capitalism at best.
The left are generally a good bunch - their failing is they do not understand economics. Itâs an ever growing welfare state, along with central banking and the inflation tax that are increasing the divisions between rich and poor, black and white, working class vs elite.
I donât actually see much hope until we are back on a gold standard - which isnât going to happen anytime soon.
Save a few like Ron Paul most politicians would never vote for a gold standard because they can no longer bribe the electorate.
Hey mate, Iâm not really upto date with american politics. I thought trump has done an ok job. Lol he lies too much though. But he does what he wants and is not really influenced by anyone. Is that right? Or is there someone else who is better than him?
Atleast the rioters only looted and burnt stuff. I watched LA92 on Netflix and the whole point of that time was to outline racism in America. All I remember from that documentary are innocent people being pulled out of their cars and beaten and left to die. One was even sprayed black while gasping for breath and people laughing. You can riot as much as you want but if you steal from innocent people, assault innocent people you wont get everyones support. And thatâs whatâs required to make a change.
Whilst Iâm not entirly sure about his 1637 - it doesnât matter much - His point is that recessions happen ! - In fact they are built into the monetary system - whether you are operating âGold standardâ or not !
There are other cycles like the 57 year Kondratiev Cycle and the â10 GENERATION CYCLE OF COLLAPSING CIVILISATIONSâ
The main problems seem to be the short-termism of elections - and yes as you say âFiat Currencyâ - Plus âDemocracyâ
Consider the âDemocratsâ - telling all the âDisadvantaged Groupsâ that "the Government will give you moneyâŚ"
Who in their rght mind will vote against "Weâll give you money " ? - Except perhaps those of Competence and ability - who know damn well - EXACTLY who the âmoneyâ is going to be stolen from
"You cannot go on indefinitely making war on white men without expecting some sort of kickbackâŚ"
Hwever the situation is now so dire that Interest Rates are effectively zero or negative - for teh forseeable future and the tax burden - if levied would be so high that people would just âopt-outâ of the system completely (As intelligent white boys seem to be doing as we speak)
To glean some overall understanding I commend âthe fall of Romeâ - Stefan Molyneux, as a comprehensive and predictive treatise ;
Long - yes !
Is it worth 2 1/2 hours to glean a reaL understanding ?
[edit - Riots ? - does it matter much ? - wthether President Trump can hold back the tide for another 4 years - or not ? - Does it matter in the greater scheme of things ? - when the Parasite is bigger than the dog - they Both die ! ]
Wasnât referring to boom and busts. They have happened throughout history.
But the increasing wealth gap - which causes social problems - is a direct result of the wealthy being able to capitalize on asset inflation whilst the poorer cannot.
I really canât be bothered searching for all the evidence - but you could check out some books about the Weimar republic, maybe the book âDying of moneyâ and learn a little about Austrian economics.
If the recent events in American cities arenât proof enough of social discord I donât know what is
Thatâs disappointing how can we have a conversation in which one party canât be bothered to discuss ?
or even look at my evidence it seems !
Iâm aware of the Weimar issues of hyperinflation - My mate has some of the actual Banknotes - detailing the growth of the money wrt value. - which is also brutally apparent in the âFall of Romeâ (which WAS based on the âGold Standardâ) - However itâs all a âParasite /dogâ situation - which is CAUSED by a marxist view of âCompassionâ.
My point is that it is just Too Late to âadapt the systemâ -
As Jefferson said
" The tree of liberty - must be periodically sprinkled with the Blood of Patriots and Tyrants"
however iâve been meaning to take alook at âAustrian Economicsâ - do recommend me a You tube link - or book !
Yes itâs a shame I canât prove my points with examples but Iâm on a smart phone right now and twisted my ankle and on pain killers.
Friedrich Hayek, Murray Rothbard just two of the Titans of the Austrian school.
The Keynesian school has been a major reason why the world is in the state it is.
Just like the Frankfurt school has come to dominate the University system and has led to the wokerati, the Keynesian school also infiltrated education bringing with it fraudulent money system.
No doubt, i agree with your economical analyzis that after recessions allways comes a boom ( sooner or later) and so on, but i think we are actually not in normal recession and thats the reason to be more cautious. Tulip crisis, south sea bubble, new economy crash⌠all that were typical âeconomical mattersâ.
This mess now was prompted by a medical/health problem, and we still dont know how to battle this plague.
So whereas in former recessions it was predictable, that economy will recover sooner or later, we have now aditional unknown circumstances in the health area.
To keep it short:: it might happen, that we wont experience the next boom, cause there is nobody left on that planet who will live in that boomâŚ( worst outlook).
The point i want to drive at is that we should keep in our backhead that it all may end worse than expected cause its a medical driven recession. Beside reading âMarket Wizzardsâ and so on i would recommend also to read that book:
I dont favor this development, but honestly speaking i dont exclude it as well.
Iâm curious to know how you arrive at this conclusion given that the antifa and black lives matter protesters and democrat politicians such as Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez Cory Booker Sarah Banks (leading candidate for Bidenâs running mate) and Elizabeth Warren, just to name a few, all say directly and indirectly the USA needs to dumb capitalism for socialism.
By the way I hear you are not well and have an injury so hope you get better soon.
Show me a politician that says that they donât lie and Iâll show you a liar. We all lie from time to time and politicians are no different.
What Trump does and what most people cannot see or understand is that he is very good at creating drama and then using that drama to his advantage. He is the master at pushing buttons that create fierce arguments and these arguments are then broadcasted on all forms of media both traditional and social. As a result he gets his message across very easily. During the 2016 election Tump spent 50 million dollars less on his campaign than Hillary Clinton purely because he knows how to play the media. He also undersatnds that at times bad media publicity can be just as beneficial as good publicity.
People say Trump is dumb but really those Trump haters need to take a good look at his track record. He was at one stage almost bankrupt but turned his business empire around to become one of the most successful businessmen in the world.
He then decided to go into politics and run for President. Everyone laughed. He went up against some well established Republican candidates in Marco Rubio Ted Cruz and Jedd Bush and beat them all for the Republican nomination. He was then running against Hillary Clinton a very experienced and well established politician and one time Secretary of State. The rest is history as he beat her to become President of the United States of America. This achievement is not the achievement of someone who is dumb or stupid. He won because he is a lot smarter than most people give him credit for and so as a result who is laughing now.
His Presidency so far has been nothing more than one attack after another and he is still standing. And if I was a gambler I bet that after 2020 election he will still be the President.
Under the current system not all businesses are bailed out and a lot do fail. I donât see that as socialism. There is a very different philosophy between the two systems and bailing out businesses is not really one of them and in some sense simplfiying the definintion of socialism verses capitalism.
But to keep it brief the real difference between the two is the way wealth is created and distributed. Capitalism believes in individualism and individualism in wealth creation. Everyone is the master of their own destiny with as little government interference as possible. Socialism is more about wealth creation for the collective. This involves big government with more control on the masses with government making decisions based on the theory of everything is for the greater good for everyone.
The easy way to explain this is with the pie theory. Socialists have no interest in growing the pie. They only care about how that pie is divided up. They believe in taking from the rich and redistributing that money to the poor. It sounds great in theory but it doesnât work. Capitalism on the other hand believes the best way is to grow the pie. IE grow the economy. As the pie grows it allows everyone to have a bigger piece of the pie by vurtue of the fact the the pie is now bigger. IE everyone benifits from strong economic growth. Both rich and poor.
The arguement socialist and marxists use against the pie theory is the the rich get richer and the poor SEEM to get poorer. But in reality everyone wins because the increases are relevant to the level of wealth by both the rich and the poor. What capitalism does is it gives those who are poor the ability to improve their lives and hence improve their wealth. This is frowned upon in socialism as they believe it is the governments job to supply everything an individual needs to enjoy a prosperous life.
