As you all know trading with the trend is better than trading against the trend.
My question is when do you consider that the trend has changed?
When do you know it’s a reversal of trend and not just a retracement?
If it’s only a 10% retracement I think it’s only a retracement.
How about the important Fibo levels, 23,6, 38,2, 50 and 61,8?
If the price moves down, then makes a 50% retracement up, and you want to trade in the direction of trend, which trend do you choose? How about 23,6 and 38,2 retracements?
Hi str8, looking at your chart, I would now take that trend to have changed from down to up right where price took out the previous high of 1.29622 after it made a higher low on a high TF like the weekly or daily. Anything else is just a pull-back or retracement imo.
Bear in mind though, I view both up and down trends are in play at the same time, only on different TF’s. For example you could have a long term uptrend on the weekly and a short term downtrend on, say the H4 or less. So I would say whichever TF you are trading on, trade in the direction with that one when it is in the same direction as the higher TF, as you should get better results.
The fib on the chart you post is not properly place. Spread fibs over individual swings. In the chart shown the market retrace 100% and break resistance. I would consider this a “trend” change if it continues hgher.
