Hello,
It may seem very strange for me to be starting YET ANOTHER thread on the subject of risk management because there are probably DOZENS of threads on the same topic but they’re mostly limited to ‘what is risk’, ‘how do I calculate it’, and it’s usually mixed up with leverage questions and arguments (and not to mention that at THIS ‘late stage of the game’ it’s not a question that I should be asking BUT you NEVER stop learning now do you) BUT something has been bothering me for a good while now. Basically: I’m coming at this from a different angle. Just bear with me while I explain (and by the way this has nothing to do with which market you are trading i.e. it applies ‘across the board’).
We all know that the ‘generally accepted risk management rule’ is to not risk more than 2% of your total capital on any single trade. Less is better of course but for some reason 2% seems to be the ‘generally accepted standard’ (on what that is based I do not know but it’s irrelevant for the purposes of this thread). No problem there.
BUT NOW think about this:
Traders will have winning streaks and losing streaks. We know this. Most traders (and myself included here) would increase their the position size as their account grows (still risking 2% of total capital on a single trade but of course 2% of a now bigger amount of total capital assuming a good few consecutive profitable trades). The caveat using this method or logic: your trade sizes get bigger (so of course on profitable trades you’ll be more profitable i.e. you’ll make more MONEY) BUT your potential losses ALSO get bigger the more profitable you become and the more total capital has increased. Now while this may SEEM to be a ‘so what’s the problem’ type of thing read on.
Think about it: let’s say you have a winning streak and you’re using the above (let’s call it) ‘linear risk management logic’. And then, for whatever reason, you go through a losing period. Using the above ‘linear risk management logic’: ‘strictly speaking’ after every loss your risk on the next trade would be less i.e. the trade size would be have to be smaller (of course: given the same trading system or methodology). The end result of this is that every successive loss would mean smaller trades and thus take far more (in number) profitable trades just to get back to where you were before your string of losses started.
(By the way and just an observation: this is one of the reasons why these theoretical Excel Spreadsheets that show the ‘power of compounding’ mean nothing. You know the ones I’m talking about??? Where the trader starts with $1 000 and compounds, say, a 10% gain per month on average, and is a millionaire in a few short years!!! My opinion anyway.)
Now I found an interesting ‘take’ on this in a book called ‘Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets’ by John J. Murphy (yet another old book but, as always, still relevant). Not using the exact figures (they’re irrelevant) but his basic premise is to DECREASE risk after profitable trades and INCREASE risk after losing trades (of course not exceeding your 2% risk of total capital per trade). Alright there’s a lot more in his explanation but that’s the gist of it.
In addition: I’ve heard it said (I’ve no experience in the matter so I’m unsure as to how true this is but I’ve heard it more than once) that the ‘key to success’ for a professional, say, poker player, is to bank half their profits and to never touch those profits. Could this be true and, whether it is or not, could this be a ‘wealth building strategy’ in THIS business???
I’ve, previously, read a lot of other articles and books on the subject (Larry Williams for one has one VERY complicated risk management or should I say ‘wealth management’ regimen described in one of his books but I’ve never bothered with it) but up until now I have pretty much stuck to the ‘linear risk management logic’ (as noted above) i.e. increase your trade size after a profitable trade and decrease your trade size after a losing trade (in other words your AMOUNT risked, not percentage risked, but AMOUNT risked will differ after each trade) but after reading (the portion of) the book mentioned above something ‘clicked’ that made me think about this.
Anyway: I’m just interested in some other peoples ‘take’ on the subject and what they’re doing in this regard.
Regards,
Dale.