Did a ton of programming in Pinescript and Python over the weekend fyi. I particularly liked reading about Jon V’s algorithmic trading and machine learning platform built in Python and the Oanda API at GitHub - jonromero/forex_algotrading: My Forex algotrading platform in Python - based on my posts at http://jon.io . Good stuff I’ll be looking at more in the next few weeks.
NZDUSD Long
BUOVB formed on D1 in an uptrend. Along trendline , SR and EMA’s. So there is support and PA, and we are in and uptrend. Problem is a lot of uncertainty right now with US China trade war and US yields underperformance and fears of recession. Continued good relations is good for NZD. There is not a lot of conviction in the market in the form of volume around this PA.
The pair seems undersold on the H4 chart, but a lot of bearish volume.
My fear is that it may take several days to make that TP level - and there may be fundamental events that change the conditions of the trade before it hits.
I only risk 1% just to see if I’m right. The only doubt I have about this trade is:
-only one PA signal, the BUOVB
-a lot of questions around fundamentals
I would rate this a 2, although I’m not sure about this. Could be a better setup. It’s supported by SR(?), trendline, and EMA’s. Nothing to stop it from reaching TP at next SR zone.
My fear is that I’m trading just to trade. Also - this conforms to my trading rules, but political situaton makes it a little risky.
See NZD/USD Weekly Price Outlook: Kiwi Rally Runs into Resistance
Confirms bullish bias, not sure if that will help this trade though.
We had a bullish move last night, but price pushed down again today.
NZDJPY Long
On D1, BUOVB and a bit of a retrace right now may be a good entry. BUOVB appears on trendline, EMAs, and around SR area. See https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDJPY/mqONKmJo-NZDJPY-TREND-CONTINUATION/ Risk on in EUR last night after positive jobs report.
This trade meets my rules, I only take 1:1 RR right now because I’m still not that confident. also, there is the 79.23 SR which may prevent it from hitting my TP. Decided to take the trade with a lower RR ratio - and some worries that I may be trading too much. Also some worries that I’m taking this trade at a time when I have some high anxiety levels, it does meet my requirements though. Rating would be a 2-3 due to SR zone.
NZDJPY and NZDUSD Longs
I closed both my trades. I know i violated my trading plan. NZD seemed to be really struggling for a couple of days now, despite weakness of dollar. I didn’t like 3 pinbars in a row. I know I should’ve let it play out to its conclusion. I don’t want to be in the red again with my account.
Right now I made about $1 on my accounts. If these trades turn out to be winners in the next couple of days I’ll be kicking myself. I know I’m not sticking with my plan.
I’ve made a slight change to my Trading Plan - I’ve added this:
After I am in a trade I will not move my Stop Loss unless it is in my favor. I will manually exit a trade if I determine that it will not go in my favor - I must document my justification from exiting trades prematurely.
It turns out I was correct in exiting my trades yesterday as NZD pairs have continued to decline.
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Weekly Review - 12/16/18
Notes:
Overall I broke even this week, I made about 2 bucks after closing out my trades early.
- I did a ton of reading
- I took 2 trades - I closed them out early for a small profit after I saw they were not going to go my way and was correct.
- I did a lot of programming, and am currently writing out scripts for a couple of people on Tradingview.
Lessons Learned:
- End of the year - last 2 weeks - high volatility, low liquidity - not necessarily best time to trade.
- It’s ok to close trades early if PA indicators reverse and original basis of your trade is invalidated, be sure to document your rationale.
Plan for next week:
- Keep following news and looking at charts. Take trades if you are really convinced it’s a good decision
- Python lessons
- Start with TV indicator requests from 2 people
Weekly Review - 12/23/18
Notes:
No trades this week. I didn’t see any good ones, and was hesitant due to S&P situation and end of year. I just did some scriptin.
Lessons Learned:
1.
Plan for next week:
- Keep following news and looking at charts. Take trades if you are really convinced it’s a good decision
- Python lessons
Good on ya, keep it up. I see you grabbed some materials from my and James16 PA threads. Smart move.
Thanks for the great thread, I’ve really studied your main points but haven’t spent a lot of time yet going through all of the pages with the individual trades and questions people ask. Do you think there is value in doing that? It’s a pretty old thread so the setups would be invalid at this point.
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Weekly Review - 01/05/19
Notes:
I have not been trading, I’ve just been reading a number of books and studying some stuff on youtube. I also have been writing Tradingview indicators for other people. I’ve not been trading due to - week off for vacation, then really crazy volatility in the markets, kind of scared me off the charts for a while. I’m also sort of in a bad state due to some stuff in my personal life - I’ve learned in the past that I make bad trades when I’m not in the right frame of mind.
Lessons Learned:
1.
Plan for next week:
Keep following news and looking at charts. Take trades if you are really convinced it’s a good decision
Python lessons
The setups have long passed but the principles are timeless. You can get an idea for what setups suceeded and what failed. I almost always posted setups before I took the trade, not after it was closed, so there is some added value as well.