Road to Ruin Experiment?

All brokers will tell you that around 75% or so of their customers lose money.
I have therefore recently been studying contrarian thinking, in all aspects of life, with a view of not doing what everyone else is doing.
Technical analysis is available to all to study, and highly recommended to beginners, so must form a major part of what the 75% are dong.
I’m not saying TA should be ignored, I suppose I mean it cannot be the whole story. It isn’t. Many of us know that.
The dividing factor must be psychology, as discussed many times. i.e. dealing with the winners, dealing with the losers. (and your emotions that go with it).
Im going to conduct an experiment.
Use minimal TA to determine trend on every major and minor FOREX pair, 4hr chart.
Action a trade with the trend.
2x ATR for s/l 3x ATR for t/p.
No clear trend, no trade….
Wish me luck! :grinning:

2 Likes

The statistics of probability are definitely with you.

What might make the difference is how you treat the minorities - the positions which go against the trend. On a minority of days, a majority of charts go counter-trend. They usually all do this on the same days.

That is a hit and miss S/L&T/P strategy. Your aim should be to draw a line where you think the order flow will change - most likely a supply and demand zone - and then place your closures away from the herd. Limit buys and sell orders could be used.

But best of luck, I think you’re on the right track.

Thanks guys for your positive comments. I really appreciate your input.
I was bracing myself for an opposite opinion. I will certainly take your advice on board.

Yeah, you are 100% right in thinking outside the box. I agree in that I suspect even an extremely profficient technical analyst (of the type who have written well respected/peer reviewed books and papers on the subject) may not make money trading.

Purely personally, I’d keep the TA as at worst I don’t think using it correctly would place you at an actual disadvatage. Look for the unknown unknowns instead i.e the factors that you don’t know about and neither does anyone else. Obviously this is easier said than done and is therefore not at all useful advice!