Trading sucks!
my name is emmanuel and i’m an actuary.
i’ve worked in FX with Barcap and Prime Brokerage with G.S.
i stumbled across this forum recently. hello guys!:27:
i’ve been developing a strategy which yields 3% effective a day, every day.
I’m greedy!
I’ve decided to stick with the tactic rather than more profitable riskier ones, but i’m working with £50k and growth is painfully slow.
i’m going to post my results weekly. (best medium?)
3% a day, compounded every day is painfully slow to you? You should project that rate of return on a spreadsheet and see what the values look like a few years in the future…I bet they don’t even fit in the box
Methinks a real actuary would’ve realised where 15% per week leads to. But here’s the timeline for you:
You start with $1,000 which turns into ~$1.5m by year one.
This then turns into $2bn by year two.
By year 2.5 you could bailout Portugal on your own thanks to your $80bn fund.
By year 3 you could purchase all of China’s US Treasury debt holdings (~$830bn) and declare it small change as you still have plenty of cash in the bank with your formidable ~$3tn reserves and are generating each week more revenue than most countries make in a year. Nobody in your country pays taxes anymore as the govt. makes so much from you alone that your country turns into a Eurocrat’s dream.
By year 4 you say screw it and buy most of the planet.
But why stop at this planet? There’s a few others, I wonder what kind of currencies they would have…
You have to laugh, an actury who doesnt understand compound interest.
Laugh or Cry, not sure which one yet!!
You know: I HATE to step in here but more and more I see threads / posts like this.
I’m going to ‘stick my neck out’ here but: is there ANYBODY on these forums that can HONESTLY say that they trade DAILY (Monday to Friday) and ALWAYS, EVERY SINGLE DAY, close out with let’s say 0.1% ROI (for now let’s forget about making 3% EVERY SINGLE DAY shall we)???
I’m just curious. I really, really, am. And I’m not talking about ‘on average’ for the week i.e. I’m talking about closing ‘up’ by just 0.1% or better EVERY SINGLE DAY. I’m also not talking about traders that will quit for the week / month once they’ve made their target because as I understand it: that is NOT what the thread starter is saying that he is doing.
It’s just that a) I’m just interested because I personally don’t see that it’s possible but then I’m not a short-term trader or scalper so I’d not know (and if this is indeed possible then I’d better ‘take my trading up a notch’ and ‘reset’ the last five or six years) and b) even if there are some traders here that are indeed achieving 0.1% or better EVERY SINGLE DAY I cannot see that there’s too many of them (they’re DARN good traders) and the perception for some reason, at least among new traders anyway, is that money is made EVERY SINGLE DAY, and I’d love to know where this perception comes from.
I mean let’s be honest (this is my opinion): the best traders in the WORLD (or should I say the traders that trade with the GREATEST ‘edge’ of all are floor traders and I think I’d be very hard pressed to find a single floor trader that makes a profit EVERY SINGLE DAY, Monday to Friday, week after week, month after month, you ‘get the picture’ I’m sure).
Regards,
Dale.
Edit:
And by the way: I’m not going to ask for proof. I’ll know who is talking ‘sh*t’ and who is trying to solicit funding for their trading account.
Dale - in a word - NO! (obviously I can’t answer for others)
Yeh well let me join you on this i.e. my answer TOO is NO!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Edit:
Let’s see how far this thread goes. I’d really be keen to know for the reasons mentioned although, I’ve a feeling, that it’s going to ‘dispel the myth’ of ‘daily profits’ once and for all.
I certainly do not make money every day.
why do you assume that because you are incompetent, then everybody else is too.
yes i am an actuary and yes i have a very good understanding of compound interest thank you. or accumulation as it’s actually known.
however one problem might be the limitations of your platform for example working with a small account balance and a high minimum lot size it is not practically possible to compound continuously. plus it is also incredible to claim there will be no variance in your average return, of course there will be. so actually depending on the limitations of your approach it is not practically feasible to compound like you suggest. 3% daily.
And it is unreasonable to assume with hubris notwithstanding how brilliant your system is that there will not be set backs, which have to be accounted for in your projections.
actually i would have thought you might take some time to think that maybe the equation is not so simple but perhaps this is beyond your capability. why do you in your capacity as a novice trader presume to school me on my area of study. this is inherently foolish.
do i come to your workplace and try to provide you with over simplified explanations of elementary concepts in your field? no.
the truth is you do not know very much about this subject matter, indeed that is why u are here to learn albeit in a very unstructured way.
don’t try and slam me for telling you about myself and what i’m looking for. if you can help with a good idea please contribute.
anyway, that’s my piece. does anyone have any knowledge or experience of setting up funds?
Hello,
Well let’s start like this:
i’ve been developing a strategy which yields 3% effective a day, every day.
Those are YOUR words. Not mine.
NOW YOU say:
plus it is also incredible to claim there will be no variance in your average return, of course there will be. so actually depending on the limitations of your approach it is not practically feasible to compound like you suggest. 3% daily.
And it is unreasonable to assume with hubris notwithstanding how brilliant your system is that there will not be set backs, which have to be accounted for in your projections.
Now under ‘normal’ circumstances i.e. after a ‘normal’ weekend (of drinking) for me: I’d be the first person to apologise because I didn’t read your post right. The thing is: I had a ‘dry’ weekend this weekend (no idea why but just wasn’t in the mood) so it’s not because I’m unable to concentrate or see straight or my imagination that YOU are contradicting YOURSELF. Either that or I don’t understand what you’re saying in plain English.
But you see this is something I don’t get (gosh darn I wish I had a hangover or SOMETHING to blame my misunderstanding on here):
the truth is you do not know very much about this subject matter, indeed that is why u are here to learn albeit in a very unstructured way.
You see. Here’s the thing. Why would ANYBODY that’s making an effective 3% per day every day on a £50 000 account be hanging around a site like this then??? Alright: that’s a bit of an unfair question I guess because if I was making that on that size account I’d still be here anyway BUT TO HELP NOT TO ASK QUESTIONS.
Now on the OTHER hand: UNFORTUNATELY the very name of this site i.e. ‘BabyPips’ sometimes seems to attract scam artists from time to time because it’s easy to assume that because there are (SUPPOSEDLY) only new traders here it’s easy to talk about HUGE returns, knowing full well that most traders that are learning are losing money, and will either offer to trade for them or sell them this 3% per day every day trading system.
So you see: your posts, thus far, are just a ‘tad’ suspicious.
As far as me ‘slamming’ you is concerned: I was not 'slamming you at all. As a matter of fact: I (personally) didn’t even bother to pull up ‘ye olde Excel’ to do the math. Personally: I think you’re talking ‘cr*p’ and trying to solicit funds for your own trading account but hey, and if I’m wrong, I man enough to apologise profusely. No problem there.
But then again: you’ve offered to post your results here so be my guest. But I’ll give you a bit of advice: don’t go posting one of those ‘equity curves’ or stuff like that. That’s not going to buy you ANY credibility. Post TRADES my friend and what they were based on. And then, of course, if they ‘check out’, I’ll apologise in REAL BIG BOLD LETTERS. How’s that for a deal???
Regards,
Dale.
Oh ok. Makes sense. i try not to be presumptuous
but I understand the source of your pessimism. In fact you are right, maybe there was no point in asking this question here i should have paid more attention to the purpose of this forum.
well a am not after your money to trade with nor am i selling you anything. i don’t want to give up my system so easily that would be foolish.
i do make steady daily returns. roughly 2-3% daily on the days i have time to trade. maybe i should post my results, but since i do not intend (it would be illegal in fact) to solicit investment there is no real point apart from perhaps to caress my ego.
i’m thinking about doing this full time and setting up an incubator fund which is usually expensive. as you might imagine this is a big risk and the main reason i want to increase my account allow for possible set backs in the event of unforeseen failures.
it would be unwise for me to assume everything will be gravy.
There might be some people out there who have great ideas on creating big funds, who may not have a reliable return behind them to implement their plans.
if you have any such ideas then i am very keen to hear what u have to say.
I have one great idea -
really - - it is not sarcasm.
Trade your plan - -at an average of 2-3% per day ; even with the smallest of accounts lets say 1000 bucks.
within a year you’ll be plenty fine. (It would probably take you a year to secure the kind of funds your looking for anyway . . so why not. . while your looking . . earn them yourself?)
here are about the last 10 days of about 200 days of trading. . . is this the kind of funds your looking for
44795.35455
45691.26164
46605.08687
47537.18861
48487.93238
49457.69103
50446.84485
[B]51455[/B].78174
Hello AGAIN.
Now THIS, Manni, is a TOTALLY different statement to be making and quite understandable and totally POSSIBLE (or should I say not totally IMPOSSIBLE):
2-3% daily on the days i have time to trade.
As a matter of fact: it’s HIGHLY possible for the simple reason that IF a trader is able to sit and wait for THE PERFECT setup (those do occur but not often enough), trade, and make 2% - 3% (or even MORE) on a single trade or two, maybe once a week or something like that, well, then, that’s a different story. Unfortunately: your initial posts (the way I understand and read them anyway) is that you have a trading system or methodology that makes 2% - 3% effectively daily ever day. There’s a big difference between the two wouldn’t you agree???
Regards,
Dale.
Dale.
every time i trade. which is most days in the morning or evening i yield 2-3 % on my account.
i don’t see y this is so difficult for you to grasp.
i don’t understand the point or reason for the implications of your message. the point is i do not want your money. whether i achieve 2-3% a day or 100% every 2 minutes is neither here nor there, it’s simply background information.
the point is, do you know of any way or have you experience 1st or second hand of raising funds and setting up your own show?
no this wont work i don’t think. don’t understand you last question. what is this supposed to be?
It simply means if you start with 1000 bucks, in about a years trading you’ll have 50k, but actually I think Perchtird has got his sums wrong, it would actually be 500k by my calculation, so you don’t need to worry about raising much money.
We would all love to see return of 2-3% every day, might you be so kind as to post your trade analysis for us.
ok,
Assuming a fixed daily ROI of 3% effective, so u = 3 and var = 0 (which is impossible) a fund of £1 would accumulate to £2,176 assuming 260 full trading days in a year, in theory.
however, consider a situation where your account balance is £1000. and the minimum lot size on your preferred platform is 500 units say on the EUR/USD.
now firstly you couldn’t employ my system with such an account balance it simply wouldn’t work. anyway assuming for a moment it could, 3% of this account is £30. you would have to trade with consecutive successful wins for 17 days before you could actually practically use your winnings to compound just the first time, given the limitations of your platform.
the number of days to compound each time would reduce naturally with time. but for that sake of simplicity let us assume 17 days in each case.
so although you have 260 assumed trading days. actually you can only compound on 15 occasions each time increasing the growth on your fixed ROI of 3% by 50% so the account would grow to roughly 200k.
However in reality, it would not be possible to compound so frequently again given the practical limitations of the system. and it is likely there will be negative growth at some point down the line.
system not based on astuteness of individual trades.
Well we (you and I Manni) are just going to go around is square circles here.
Hey: I’m a long term trader so what do I know about making a certain percentage per day daily (and when you say ‘most days’ then we’re back to the original argument so let’s not bother with that).
To answer your question: no I don’t have any idea how you could set up a fund OTHER than with a proven / proveable track record.
But I’ll give you some advice (and SOME OTHERS of you don’t come with the ‘arrows’ again i.e. once again I’m not on the ‘self-pity’ thing but giving some advice):
I don’t know how long you’ve been trading and how EXACTLY you’re working your results out or what they’re based on. But I’ll say this: don’t take other people’s money EVEN IF you have a good chunk of your own to put with it if you’ve only been trading successfully EVEN WITH your results for only a few months (and I’m not saying that you have i.e. I’m merely making a point). It’s ‘old news’ around here (and some are even tired of hearing about it) that at some point, over a six month period, I made some type of ridiculous percentage return i.e. in the THOUSANDS of percent. Put another way: I turned $700 into $15 000 in around six months (I just did the calculation myself AGAIN i.e. that’s 2042.85% in six months). So what’s the first thing that I did??? Use those results to solicit funds (or ‘create a fund’ using your terminology) THINKING that I’d finally ‘cracked this business’ (this after two years of straight losses) the logic of course being that if I could make THOSE types of returns I could guarantee 100% return to each client and still make a TOTAL WHACK over and above that for myself given the amount of additional capital that I would be trading. I could go into detail as to WHY I did so well in those six months and why ‘the wheels fell off’ very soon thereafter but I’ll not bore anyone (nor you) with the details. Suffice to say: those returns were NOT sustainable (even although obviously I thought they were at the time) and I’ll always pay for that mistake (whether it be in monetary terms or in reputation). Even although for the last two years now things have changed: I wouldn’t take anybody elses money and trade it for them if they PAID me to do so (and I reckon two years of consistency is not too bad even if I have to say so myself although the capital that I had left to start over with was minimal and, if the truth be told, compared to what I once had, still is).
All I’m saying is: only YOU know how long you’ve been at this, how sustainable your gains are, and how trading even BIGGER accounts is going to affect your trading psyche (actually the last part you DON’T and CANNOT know until you’ve been there). This business has a very bad name because of false promises and people ‘getting ahead of themselves’ and then losing. Don’t go adding to the problem is all I’m saying. And let me tell you that unless you’re a con artist (and I’m NOT saying that you are): to live with losing not only just about all of your OWN money but the money of others that had faith and trust in you is NOT easy to live with. Not easy at all.
So I shall leave you with those thoughts.
Regards,
Dale.