I am trying to work out how to translate the betting of Black & Red
(close to Even Money) of Roulette to an EA strategy on Forex.
A decision every minute,
Pairs in Alphabetical order,
In Roulette You bet in Units, how would I equate that?
A Unit is the same amount, $5, $25, Etc, (Example),
You are Paper betting 8 Units on Black & Paper Betting 3 Units on Red,
So the differential is that You are Physically Betting 5 Units on Black.
I realise there are sure to be other so far unforseen challenges and
My lack of knowledge of basic fundamentals is going to be a hindrance.
Thanks in advance for any insight to help Me through this quandary.
Conceptual problem: Roulette has fixed odds and no skill factor. The odds are against the player so if you play long enough you are essentially guaranteed to lose, no matter what bet size system you use.
I am trying to think with you on this, but I need to know a bit more on your point of view. Is it the idea that you want to limit your losses while making a profit (risk management) or are you thinking about a trade strategy where you want to trade two trades to have a great change to make a profit (Hedging trade strategy).
I use 2 different progressions betting on Black and the same 2 progressions betting on Red,
all 4 progressions are used on each spin, I then add both Black’s together,
then both Red’s together AND THEN bet the Differential.
This is done in units.
Part of the difference between my Roulette system and Forex is also,
to me Roulette is straight forward, you have a result, Black or Red is the winner,
then you work out the Progressions & Differential, this gives you your next bet.
I don’t know with Forex how to work it out,
do I look at which of the Pair has got 'Stronger’
since one minute earlier and ‘Call’ that the Winner?
You work that out from various statistical parameters relating to your [B][U]proven edge[/U][/B].
This highly recommended, introductory book explains in simple terms the details of how to that: [I]Profitability & Systematic Trading[/I], by Michael Harris (Wiley, 2007).
The one thing that’s an objective certainty is that if whatever method or system you’re using doesn’t already have a reliable, statistically significant, proven edge [B][U]at level stakes[/U][/B], then you certainly can’t imbue it with one by varying the stakes according to the outcome of the previous spin/trade/test/selection - and that’s equally true of both roulette and forex (or any other) trading.
In fact, I think you’re understating that, if anything: the reality is that even in order to learn to understand any of those basic fundamentals, let alone to begin to apply them successfully, you’ll need to start by giving up the beliefs currently residing in the space where you’d store, digest and interpet that understanding, otherwise it will simply conflict with what’s already there and therefore not be appropriately processed. The book I’ve mentioned above will help you to do that (among other things). Good luck.
I’ve been looking at the idea with my EA that it would use each ‘tick’ (change in price) as the ‘decision’ (spin).
Amount to invest is challenging, Do I use a lump sum at the beginning of the game and divide that up into segments (bets)?
Well, each tick might be too small to decide on which pair you want to bet. Do also consider that you have twice a spread.
I have difficulties in understanding your concept. So you want to place two trades long and two trades short. Depending on your EA your EA decides which one to bet on, what causes that the two opposite trades will be closed? Is that correct?
In Roulette etc, what I have is a system that works on
Red and Black simultaneously in exactly the same way.
I usually then have two different amounts to bet,
so I bet the difference on whichever is the largest (Red OR Black),
In Roulette etc, there is a Minimum and Maximum table limits,
so what I can do is have a set amount (A UNIT) for the duration of a SESSION.
That seems to be one of My problems,
finding A STATIC UNIT of amount to invest in the Forex.
In Roulette etc. the time frame is set by the croupier,
one decision after another, My system runs up to 30 decisions long.
For Forex, I need to work out this time frame idea as well as Stop loss and take profit.