And there’s the pending order to close out half the trade.
Yeah I’m afraid you’ll have to move to something totally different. Keep up with sticking to your rules to get significant analysis.
Yup, figured as much early on, with the help of Dale and some others. Still want to give it a go a bit longer.
Just moved my stop on my EURNZD trade to lock in about 100 pips. Up another 50 pips above that. Other two trades are down 31 and 25 pips. The 25 pips is the GBPAUD trade where I just closed down half the trade per the system rules.
Closed this trade yesterday at 1.6893 for a cool 250 pips! I didn’t want to risk losing more pips, as I was up to something like 285 pips (had already locked in profits). So fear kicked in, I adjusted the stop to 30 pips, just randomly. The trade worked out in the end, but I think I need more attention on adjusting the stops.
I got stopped out of the second half of the GBPAUD trade. I think this trade was just bad trade management and entry. Was trying to do it manually, as opposed to setting a pending order to do the work for me…
Still in a EURCAD trade, that’s starting to turn to the positive, but still down 20 or so pips. Trading in a range of about 110 pips over the last month.
It looks like you are trying to catch a trend change on the daily chart for swing trading opportunities. May I suggest that you try the following to improve your probability of success.
Let’s say that the prevailing trend is downward and you are looking for the trend to change to an upward direction. There are certain price patterns that occur which will signal a possible trend change. These patterns occur on all time frames.
Since we are planning to trade the daily chart I would drop down to an 8H or perhaps even a 4H to get an early signal. Look for a short term high to be taken out. That is, price must move higher than a previous high. Once that occurs then look for price to form a higher low. Once you see that look for a S/R to enter the market as price retraces downwards or use a fib retracement to enter. Or use the RSI over 30 rule on the lower timeframe chart for entry. Your stop should be at 30 pips below the lowest low in order to evade being stop hunted.
Hope this helps with the implementation of the strategy. There are more precise ways to enter the trade using price action but it would require additional background information and explanation.
Still in this trade, at +131 pips. It’s really been moving over the last day or so. And I’ve locked in 55 pips of profit on 50% of the trade. This is one of those trades that I monitored late again (damn weekend!) but lucked out that I’m up. I wonder now if I should still lock in per the rules, or screw it and lock in higher pips.
Oh man, there’s a lot in there that I need to digest. Lots to try out. Thanks! I’ll report back with progress.
Okay, plenty of pairs to watch that are in the overbought/oversold territories or getting close. Now just to pick a couple good ones.
Potentials:
- AUDUSD
- EURJPY
- EUrGBP down
- GBPUSD
- USDJPY
- GBPCAD
- AUDCAD
- EUDCHF
- NZDCHF (getting close)
- NZDJPY (getting close)
That’s a long list. Perhaps since I already have a EUR trade open, I should pick pairs not trading the EUR.
That would leave:
- AUDUSD
- USDJPY
- GBPCAD
- AUDCAD
- NZDCHF (getting close)
- NZDJPY (getting close)
- GBPUSD (gettting close)
But the bottom two are tradeable just yet per the system. So that leaves the top 4.
- AUDUSD - current candle first to cross 30 mark
- USDJPY - current candle first to cross 30 mark
- GBPCAD - right on the 30 mark, with no candle closing above the 30 mark
- AUDCAD - right on the 30 mark, with no candle closing above the 30 mark
Actually, I need a candle to close above the 30, so really, I have to wait and see what tomorrow holds I think. Probably best to see if there is any retracement on the ones I’m already looking at.
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GBPUSD a bit out of the rules of the strategy by a day, but wondering if a long position wouldn’t be a bad idea here. Any takers?
Back to the drawing board for a better trade perhaps. But we’ll watch it to see what happens.
NZDCAD perhaps? Kind of in the same boat too.
USDZAR also oversold on the daily. Could be an opportunity to short, but still need to wait another day at least, to see where it goes.
NZDCHF meet the system parameters. I may be breaking the rules, as I’m two closed candles since the move above the 30 level, but let’s see where this goes.
Long at .6298
SL at .6208, at the recent swing low (on the wick, not the body)
Still have an open AUDJPY trade in the red at the moment.
Slim pickins on a trade.
I’ll be watching EURUSD and NZD pairs in the coming days for some movements that meet the strategy rules.
USDCZK is overbought, haven’t traded that ever. Perhaps it’s time! Actually, there a several USD paired exotics looking the same. Hmmmm, might give one a try.
Okay, I opened a NZDCAD long trade today. Price closed up above the 30 level.
I went long at .8434
My stop was 85 pips at .8349
Looks like we’re in a downtrend on the weekly and daily, and near the 12 month low of .8422. So there is room to go down. But, I’m going with the system rules.
Still in my NZDCAD trade. Current up +20 pips. Lost about 20 pips in the last hour. So the momentum up is definitely slowing down. Situations like this is where I want to close the trade down. I’ve already locked in some pips, and a win is a win is a win, but it’s not per the system.
Since that was a pretty big move, I’ll hang on a bit to see if there’s a pullback and then go from there.
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NZDCAD trade inching higher. Still green, so that great! Looks like it was a good idea to wait a bit long, and let the trade pullback happen. Will keep watching it. Now time to look at charts for some other opportunities. I think I’m learning a bit!
EURAUD looks interesting. It’s not all the way down to oversold, currently at 36.6, but the last closed candles looks to show that a reversal might be in play. The trend on the daily is also heading up. Weekly shows the same. But I’d be breaking the rules again. Ha! Maybe I’ll take it just as a test, see if what I think I’m seeing is correct. Recent swing low is far away, 180 pips.
Hmmm. I’ll give it a go!
EURAUD LONG @ 1.6099
170 SL at 1.5920
Away we go.
Oh man, up over 40 pips just to get stopped out. Bye bye EURAUD trade.
NZDCAD, was also up, but then got stopped out. At least there I was able to reduce the bleeding by closing out half the position while the trade was moving in the right direction. But still back to back losers.
So on to the next one.
Short GBPJPY looks interesting. Nearing overbought. Right at the 100 day MA. Broke above the 50 earlier in the week. But plenty of GBP news next week. Let’s see where the week starts off. I’ll wait for a move above the 70 level and go from there.
USDJPY looks similar to GBPJPY, right near the 100 MA. And today looked like price hit a ceiling. Unfortunately, we’re nowhere near breaking the 70 level. Actually haven’t broken that level is a while. So maybe this a bad pair to trade, or we need to change up the rules. Hmmm, maybe we’ll just watch this too.
Other watchlist:
GBPCAD
GBPAUD
GBPCHF
AUDNZD, actually above the 70 level, just broke through the 100 and 200 MAs on the weekly
AUDCAD
So, more watching in store on Sunday I think.
Note for myself:
Keep in mind, trading is always about probabilities, never certainty. We are in the risk and probability business.
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Thanks for the note, i need to remind myself as well. 