Definitely helps to remember this when you see price blow through a support or resistance, or where you expect it to go. Those lines and indicators aren’t exact and by no means guarantees. Took me longer to grasp that than I like to admit.
Well thank you marketmilk for making it super quick and easy for me to go over RSI for multiple pairs at once. That took like a minute to look through a whole bunch of pairs! I’ll need to compare it to Oanda demo to see what pairs were missed. Mainly a lot of exotics, but I don’t trade those that much, so no biggie.
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Man, this marketmilk is making it easy to spot potential trades… or spot NO potential trades. I’m feeling that my love for RSI has been lost. The strategy is too … I don’t know, simplistic maybe.
Went through all the pairs on the demo platform, nothing. Couple of exotics are getting close. We’ll have to try again tomorrow.
In the mean time, back to reading and looking for a new strategy. Any suggestions welcome.
It just dawned on me, use marketmilk to check out other overbought and oversold indicators. If it can sometimes work with just RSI, maybe I can incorporate other data into something else. Definitely something to test, as well as a couple strategies that I’ve had on my list, but hadn’t had a chance to test them out yet.
I’ve been slacking big time on my trades, but I’ve got a couple pairs that are where I need them to be so here come some much needed pairs.
I have found another system to trade yet in place of this RSI, so in the mean time, I’ll trade what I can trade. So here were are:
GBP/USD - oversold, with 4 days closed already, showing a possible reversal today.
EUR/USD - didn’t actually hit oversold, but got as close as any day in the last… 4 months. The last time it actually moved above the 70 zone was Jan, 2018. But this reversed today.
And after some more looking, it looks like JPY pairs, much like USD, are all in or near overbought territory.
Non USD or JPY pairs overbought or sold
- GBP/CHF barely overbought, but hasn’t closed above for a second day.
- GBP/CAD close
- GBP/AUD close
- EURGBP oversold, 3 days closed as such, with some really long wicks
Soo…
Let’s go GBP/USD/
Short at 1.2977
SL of 150 pips (i think that’s like 1.1 ATR)
RSI overbought at 72.74
So had a win finally using the RSI rollercoaster. That’s definitely mostly my fault because of my lack of trade recently. Fell off the wagon for sure.
But, +115 pips on the GBPUSD trade. Not nearly 1:1, which long term is bad. But price moved back up above the RSI (14) 70 mark, so maybe I can get back into this trade tomorrow, or Sunday/Monday. I’ll have to keep checking back.
Got stopped out at 1.2862. After I hit 100 pips, I got scared about losing the pips, so I updated the trade with a tighter stop (20 pips). Was that the right call here? Well, I still have my 100 pips.
Okay next trade.
USD/CAD just crossed back above the 30 mark. So…
Long @ 1.3089, 57 pip SL (110% of ATR)
Some notes to come back to during the week:
- What happens at 1.31.30 (50 pips up). Is it an area of resistance?
- What happens at 1.3151. Is it an area of resistance?
- Was the SL too tight? Price already moved 30 pips since open.
My USDCAD hasn’t moved much, so I’m back looking for another trade.
GBPUSD down, under the 70 level recently, and it could be ready for a move down. But… Fed announcement tomorrow. Best to stay away. At least we can make a mental note to see what GBPUSD does after the announcement, with the Fed looking to cut rates some more. So I’ll move on.
So my USDCAD trade moved nicely. While I was away from the charts, I hit +100 pips, so R:R of 1:2. Sadly, as I was away, I missed the pullback, but I’m still at +70 pips. I switch my SL to a trailing SL. Not too sure how tight to keep it, but I’m at least at break even with a trailing stop of 50 pips.Too wide?
As for my notes/questions, the answers are:
- Price blew right through this
- Price blew through this too, but the pull back is sitting right at/above this level
- With this trade, no.
New questions/notes:
- How should I approach the trailing stop?
- How should I approach exiting the trade?
- Should I close out now with +70 pips?
- 1.3200 looks to be resistance. What will price do as it gets closer?
- Price pulled back at the 100 MA
- RSI on the on the 4H is coming down from a peak of 75. It’s currently at 69/70. 1H is in a similar position.
Since resistance is likely around 1.3200, and we’re at 1.3161, we could tighten the stop to 10 pips. Risk 10 pips for a potential of up to 40 more pips. Let’s try that!
As for the next trade, JPY pairs look promising, especially GBPJPY, AUDJPY and EURJPY. Thanks for the visuals, Marketmilk!
Back on the wagon. Looked over my pairs, nothing much out there for this system. EURGBP is close, right at 32, but nothing below 30. That’s a hard pair to read actually. On the weekly, price is below the 200 MA. On the daily, it’s been ranging for about a month. The 50 MA crossed below the 200 MA. We’re nearing yearly lows at .8500. I think I’ll wait a bit on this.
Nothing glaring on the daily. GBPUSD is getting close to hitting the 70 mark, plus resistance between 1.2950 and 1.2985. Currently at 1.2949. The weekly is moving down. So I should look to short. The 4hr is already above the 70 mark on RSI. Best to keep an eye on this for a little bit before jumping in.
Other hopefuls.
EURGBP
GBPCAD
Anything GBP at the moment is closing in on necessary levels.
Looks like AUDNZD is the only pair outside of exotics doing anything. Barely getting to the 30 level, but still above, and I’ll need it to hit and then move back up before jumping in. So no trade at the moment.
Looks like NZD pairs are almost all at the required levels even on the dailies. AUDNZD on the daily looks promising, but so does NZDUSD on the daily, 4h or even 1hr. I haven’t traded the shortly time frames, so that would be a mistake on my part. Let me do some more digging on these two pairs.
NZDUSD
- NZDUSD on the daily, RSI is close to closing below the 70 level.
- On the 4H, we’ve come down a bit from the peak RSI level of 78, down to 73, so still waiting.
NZDCAD
- On the daily, waiting for a bit of a move below the 70 level
- ON the 4H, buyers look exhausted. Price moves are flat.
EURNZD
- Looks ready for a trade. Price has closed above the 30 level.
- The 4H also recently closed back above the 30 level.
I’ll wait a bit longer to make my move.
Don’t assume you are a sponge and will succeed by just soaking up all the knowledge that’s out there, sponges don’t have brains and can’t trade.
Thanks @tommor
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Watching some GBPUSD at the moment. Just about near crossing the 70 level. If it retraces back to the 38% level, I’m in for a 2:1 RR. Let’s see if we can get in.
NZDUSD trade. Hit some 6 month support. Oversold. Lower TF, 15m, showing buying. Let’s give it a shot.
Long at 6259 SL of 70. On the daily.
Open skies above.
Also thinking about a USDCHF long. It’s at the bottom of a new yearly low. Shorter price movements are within a range, so looks like the downward pressure is easing. Hit the 2018 low, if I pan out and look at weekly.
So, long at 9528. 53 pip SL. Daily as well. Cool.
So this trade blew up in my face. Kept dropping, past my stop, moved almost 60 pips today. Still going down. I’ll have to continue to watch that for a reversal.
Close my NZDUSD trade at 6293 for 34 pips.
And actually just closed a EURGBP short trade at 8669 that I opened at 8718. Almost 50 pips. Going to watch this for another move down.