No Scaling Into A Position EVER. I gave it one more go tonight ended up taking me down again still profitable day today but I just don’t do it well. It’s going to be one if those things I always pick a spot to enter that costs me money and I have to manage a much more complex trade especially with FIFO as I can not just close my scale in. Seriously I only do it when I am profitable but I always pick the exact point where we get a retrace I have probably lost twice as much money with scale ins as I ever made with it. Not to mention the extra spread I pay. I know it’s profitable for other people but just not me. Obviously I will still scale out though that’s a legitimate part of my strategy. Anyone else have problems with scaling in??
New trading rule: I will no longer add to positions at anytime.
Personally I think you are going about it wrong. I scale in from time to time but I only do it when my trade is far enough into profit that I have no real risk on the table. I will only scale in when the trade I am in finishes a retracement (assuming my trailing didnt get hit) and I have another entry signal. Then I will scale in another position and put my stop loss as if I was just entering that trade. Lastly for me to do it where my stop is going to be placed must be in profit mean I can not lose any of my money only risk profits from the original entry.
Yes I think i am miss applying the principle. Which is probably a profitable technique but when miss applied like most things in trading hurt you. I really hope that I will be able to add it to my arsenal when i can come up with a systematized way to use it. right now i am just using it willy nilly.
try not to look at it as scaling in but look at it as a separate trade all together. If you dont have a valid entry signal for a trade then you have no reason to scale in. If you do have a valid entry signal and your original position is far enough in profit that your stop loss would still be in profit then I dont see any reason not to scale in you not risking anything more just profits from the original position. It can be very a profitable tool when used correctly essentially no risk high reward what more can someone ask for?
[B]Due to psychological reasons and severe losses I am halting all trading until [I]NOVEMBER 1ST[/I][/B]
this is a promise I am making myself. I will not trade until the 1st of next month. I have realized that I have all the tools to be a successful trader. But I am the hinderance in this equation. I have not once blamed the market for my losses, nor have found pity in horror stories shared with friends. But I feel inside me there is something that is causing me to lose. Everynight before bed i visualize becoming a successful trader. But as ed sekoyta said ‘everyone gets what they want out of the market’ I sure as hell dont want that to be losses. So as a journey of self discovery and of personal refinement I am barring myself from trading. Please everyone here who follows and reads my thread, i never suspected it to reach so many views. I am very happy to have garnered such a good crowd of people. I really need to evaluate myself, not my system. I have found so many profitable tools from many people here in Babypips and other places. From Supply and demand, VSA, liquidity, standard techinical analysis, time/market phases, just to name a few. Each one adding to the probabilty of a trade working out. I have backtested and seen results of the systems I can impliment that would make it near impossible for me, if followed correctly to fail. But I need to reflect on myself and how I am to implement them. No i didnt go broke, I still have a majority of my account. But I know I am at the cusp of a major breakthrough in my trading. But the problem is ME. So its time to go on hiatus, back to forex temple but not to meditate on the systems I have created, or others have shown me. I really apprecaite everything eremarket (Jay) has shown me and helped me. I would never have been able to develop as quickly as I have, know i am pointed in the right direction (I know theres a party and the street and neighborhood its in, can i figure out which house?), nor have the extensive toolbox of profitable strategies. I truely appreciate everything you have done for me. Anyway this sounds all like some good bye letter or some junk. Which it is kinda but not really I am going to come back and comeback with a vengance.
[B]MEIHUA -CLOSED FOR BUSINESS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE-[/B]
ACCOUNT CAPITAL %: 84.4% of original investmant (net -15.6%)
So I haven’t opened my trading platform but this afternoon i got a message on my cellphone that I had a limit order triggered. I did take a demo trade on Friday while i was drunk and thought well maybe i put an order somewhere there, well after getting to a place where I could check it, I realized it wasnt demo at all. But a live trade, i seriously began to freakout. I may a promise to myself and to others that I wouldn’t trade at all. I closed the trade as soon as i figured it out. It was within 1 pip of BE so that was fine. I just wanted to be out and got lucky the market hadn’t moved. I looked at my activity log and this trade had been there since, last Tuesday. Now i have made sure to clear all my orders in all accounts. But unfortunately I feel bad that i broke my own promise. That really hurts me that I wasn’t disciplined enough to remember to clear limit orders. Well the overall difference caused by this was only a few cents. But the point is the principle. Anyway, I hope everyone’s trading week is going well. I also hope all those i have promised to to trade with will forgive me.
Well I was planning on waiting this week for my comeback. But with the Japanese intervention the set ups were too good. I decided to start with demo and took a long inside the range and made 198 pips. Then EJ and UJ were primed and ready for a short at the top. EJ hit a daily level and UJ was showing 4H level, with USDX correlation. So i shorted both for a total of 175 live pips. Really my best day ever. I am probably not going to trade much unless we hit fresh virgin levels, but today with that intervention the amazing set ups were well amazing. So i doubled up on that. But i really have to maintain more discipline and take only the best set ups around. But to be honest those were pretty damn good
I am still trying to study order flows / supply and demand so I cant comment on that much.
But if you are trading price action, you cant always see where the price is going. But there will be atleast two or three trades a week where you can see for sure where its going and that is where you maximize your take.
Cant expect to sit infront of the PC at any chosen hour and expect to be able to see where its going to go.
Yeah Nikita, this is something i have to take in as well. The market gives you opportunity on its schedule, wither or not your ready to take advantage. Yes my complete system is based on Supply/Demand and Orderflow. You could argue that they are one and the same or one is a sub group of the other. To be honest it makes the most sense to me as I had floor experience and it really resonates with how i know the pit works. Not that I don’t think PA is helpful, but its about where and how its developing. Order flow and Supply Demand create the candle, the candle is just the representation of that phenomenon on a chart. Everyone has their own take on it but the underlying principles behind any of the systems are the same. Here is my simplified version of the progression of orders at Supply and Demand Levels. I don’t know if it will help, but creating it really helped me. The model below only shows lower highs created out of demand, this changes if Higher highs are created after the ‘do nothing zone’. But I think the illustration very much shows what I am trying to do with my main set up, why i don’t like to take 2nd or 3rd bounces, and why stop runs occur below previously held support. Please note this is an oversimplification there are a lot of principles at work that are not included here or that are very difficult to show through images. But now people can get the idea of what I am doing, what continuously occurring market phenomenon I am utilizing to create returns.
Made a play on E/Us 50s got about 1.3:1 and netted about 45 pips with 1 scale in. Took the correlated E/J with a target just below and got an additional 35. I wish i could have posted the charts with these trades but Oanda’s MT4 is down for several days so i traded off the java and i cant post charts from there. Its really really crap. so just going to have to be believe me. I did make live calls on these trades in the chat room.
Average net: 94 pips.
Booked another 9 pips the positions PA was getting ridiculous, so i kept unloading parts of my position. Eventually it was down to 25% of my original position, but its better to reduce risk in uncertainty and make sure to lockin profit. than take a loss. So here it is, Another short fiber for 9 pips
So, given regular market conditions I can see myself entering a long at the first peak (and exiting out when it loses steam and dips).
The second peak would need a combition of a strong market bearish bias, and the fact that peak #2 cannot make a higher high (which is where i would enter a short, lowered risk, stop loss above first peak, TP at consolidation).
One thing I noticed about second peak (my super trade that rarely happens), is when you have a long bias, and price travels parabolically to the consolidation zone (at least 1 super lengthy zone or 2 medium sized ones), is indicative of price forming a new high for peak #2 (changing the rest of the picture for your scenario).
So I guess my biggest focus is how you personally read peak #2, the do nothing zone?
and for peak three, do you enter after the break of support, or do you enter at the top of peak#3?
The do nothing zone, I watch that action by looking for 2 types of criteria to determine if the orders are ‘refreshed’. The speed of the move out of the level after that touch and the distance it travels. It must make a higher high, and move out faster than the original move away (the one you got long in). These 2 factors are really the keys to seeing if there is still a large supply demand imbalance at the level. Now i believe you are talking about going short in peak #3 to take advantage of the change in bias to the down side and take the break of the support line. This play is much riskier, although profitable at time, but you have to realize there are a lot of other factors at work. I wont take that type of trade myself soley knowing that the bias has changed at that time going into a previous support level. You time support breaks or piercing of support levels for profitable trades but the concept and tactics are much more complex. I will try to come up with an image to explain the higher high phenomeon which i hope will clearify things for you.
Watching the price ladder can be helpful, but you also have to realize that its a giant game of poker. Just because there are large bids or offers on that ladder does not mean that the person behind it actually wants to be filled. They can flash size to actually drive price down or up into their actual positions. Or use other techinques to test the liquidity or go after small pockets of players. This takes a lot of practice and is much more intiuative, You have to understand the hammers in your market and what they are trying to accomplish. Not just that you see size at the 1/8ths (using stocks here) and assume we have resistance above so we should try to get short instead, but really the bids below is the same client who wants to draw you into a trap. That is only one of many tactics that the level 2, although it is quite common. If you dont understand the plays that can and do occur there you will get yourself in trouble. Now I would also consider watching the prints at the same time. I personally used to watch the board and prints in a previous job. I really do enjoy looking at it and with a price ladder it really can give you a whole nother look at whats happening. Again its subjective, you have to watch the prints for a while to get the ‘rhythem’. But then you can notice when things start to get off beat, then something is happening. Also the size being played, how fast, its it just small fills or institutional size, what price are they taking it at. A lot of information. Just watching the quote flashing on my oanda account i can tell when things are starting to go nuts. The best advice i can give you is this for watching the prints, watch the rhytem and look for times where the price is hitting inside the spread (this is for regulated instruments ie Equities) i have never seen a price ladder in OTC forex since i use Oanda. Once price has been trending in 1 direction say long, you have price hitting inside the spread, and the rhytem is starting to get ‘off beat’ you are going to have a decrease in momentum and start to look to enter in the opposite direction say short. That type of print play you dont actually need a chart at all, you can watch for that occurence, then start to put in a small test position and watch the prints as people are either hitting the bid or taking the ask. depending on what direction you want to go and see if the size is confirming the decrease in momentum and direction change. Exit once you see the same thing happening but in the other direction. These trades would be scalps but its entirely possible to trade purely through the tape, level 2 is just a plus. But level 2 can lie, the prints cant. so I always take the prints over level 2 any day.
Alright, Time for some updates. I took 2 trades today. both in the fiber. for a total of 43.45 pips. I scaled out 50% of the positions both times 1 trade ended up costing me 5.1 pips on the 2nd half but i had locked in more profit so it was a gaurenteed winner anyway which is always sweet. I made right about 1.5% profit today on just those trades alone. Trying to just increase my discipline and look for great trades. 0 losers today 2 winners. 49.1 was my biggest win for 50% of one position and my largest loss was 5.1 pips on 50% of a different trade. I hope to get more charts up as my charting package updates and hopefully becomes working again. Otherwise I am going to really have to work with some less than par stuff which is annoying. Anyway as always Cheers and Good pippin’
So this week has been pretty much amazing. I am currently in the process of revamping my trading plan and focusing on 2 types of set ups only. This week has been wildly successful. A record shattering week for me, made up of record shattering days. Friday I actually took 1 trade which i though fit my criteria but technicality didn’t, even though it would have gone to my TP and well beyond, i closed it at BE (-spread) immediately upon realization that it was wrong. I am trying to introduce a new type of discipline into myself that is what I think will really take me to the next level. Also I have been reluctant to incorporate all of my system here because I know that certain parts of my strategy are diminished with more people trading it. Which now that my charting package is back up and running, I should be continuing to post my trades with charts. I will continue to provide a good journal here that details a majority of my theories and systems as well as chart and journal as before. It all just depends on how comfortable I get with sharing all of my new found techniques. But I feel that even though i am limited to these 2 very high probability set ups, I am on a quest to master them. Really overall they produce 75%+ win rate with 1:1-3:1+ winners. But the best thing is they completely vibe with me, I understand fully the market micro structure and order flow behind these entries and why they work. I have found my continually occurring market inefficiencies, that I will use to get me my pips. I hope that I have really crossed a big thrush hold in my learning because I don’t really feel the need to go out there and hunt systems anymore. I understand what types of market activity I want to exploit and how to create entries and systems around those specific events in order to profit. I don’t know that the future will bring but for the next 6 months I will solely focus on these types of trades. I hope I can continue to share my journey here without fear or diminishing my own returns. But this community has given a lot to me, so i feel obligated to share my own knowledge. I hope as time goes on I can do that more effectively as my own knowledge increases.
[B]net win of 539.15 pips[/B] (all scale ins and scale outs have been weighted averaged)
