These stats that are below are for the formalized system I have been following for the last couple of months. I have come a long way in my opinion over my thread here, from my first trade until my most recent one. From experimenting with pure PA, to trying ICTs techniques, to finding Sam Seiden’s Supply and demand then looking at Eremarket. Along with countless other methods and books. After that I really found something that gelled with me. I have studied around 1000 hours since the beginning of this journey. And as a results driven guy, this is what I have to show for it. Might not be much but its something.
Mei Hua’s Statistical Results:
Risk of Ruin:
Loss Size 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40%
Probability of Loss <0.01% <0.01% <0.01% <0.01% <0.01% <0.01% 0.04%
Consecutive Losing Trades 415 373 332 290 249 207 166
30% 20% 10%
0.46% 3.45% 20.39%
124 83 41
Winrate Overall 61%
Winrate Entry Type 1 (SnD): 65%
Winrate Entry Type 2: 57%
Longs Won: (8/22) 36%
Shorts Won: (32/51) 62%
Ratio of Entries Used: 1:1
Overall Expectancy (pips): 9.32
Expectancy Entry Type 1: 16.24
Expectancy Entry Type 2: 2.41
Best Trade Return: 1.8%+ (87.9 pips)
Worst Trade Return: -1.3% (-53.7 Pips)
Longest Win Streak: 7
Longest Losing Streak: 6
Profit Factor: 1.13
Sharpe Ratio: 0.06
Z-Score: -2.4 (99.99%)
APHR: 0.04%
GHPR: 0.01%
Average Trade Length: 6H 19M
Gain (TWR): [B]+2.65%[/B]
Absolute Gain (affected by withdraws and deposits): [B]1.01%[/B]
Take Away:
I am an Net Profitable trader, obviously not by much but from having a draw down of 20% of my account. Then turning around becoming Break even and then depositing more money in and then making additional equity on that was really nice.
My Trades are held for a significant period of time. So i don’t have to stare at the chart every minute of every trade.
Win more Shorts than Longs, but i think that’s just a product of the environment more than the bias of my trade system. Though I could be wrong, that will take further analysis to determine.
Positive Sharpe and Profit ratio are always nice. This is what gives me the most confidence knowing that I have a statistical edge over the market. Albeit a small one, but I know that when i put a trade down more likely than not I will walk away with more money than i started with.
Also My risk of ruin scenario is really good IMHO, its highly improbable that I will lose even 30% of my account as that is less than .5%. So i know I have good money management and the ability to survive this learning curve and come out the other side.
More end of year analysis and reflection to come. Also creating a plan for the new year.
Well I guess this is really my Trading ‘New Years’ Resolution. So lets put this into some quantifiable goals. I will also be upping my trading account balance to a much larger sum in order to allow me to meet these goals.
