Question Derek…Meihua…whatever 
when u say 55% win rate… whats your risk:reward ratio? 1:1? 2:1? 3:1? 55% win is pretty good… unless of course your averge winner is 75 pips, and your average loser is 100 pips.
on the other hand, 55% win rate with a 3:1 R:R is pretty $hit hot. So what are we looking at here?
Jay
I didnt write down the pip count but i wrote down the ratio of win to loss. So i had 1.485:1 winner:loser. not that great actually. so small winners but slightly smaller losers. I would target 2:1 or greater zones but i would take 1.5 or 1 as profit. Not taking the whole move .I can do it again and see what happens but i definitely need to refine my skills for intra-day. this is my new area of focus. I would like to get it to a level where i can trade 1h charts.
So i tried to take a short term scalp, this is definitely my weakness. Going for 1:1 but the chart offered more. I was stopped out unfortunately before it returned.
Reasons to take the trade: We had a small candled that followed by a bear candle that engulfed nearly 3 bull candles. It was close to R1. Also I had coming into this week a short bias, and there was only 1 candle at the level suggesting a short period of time spent there. (H1 time frame)
Failure analysis: Price came close to the level and dropped, although they did not touch it. This allowed on smaller tfs to make higher highs. Going to 1m/5m rentry was not smooth.
Take a ways: Look at the smaller time frames to see how price is re entering the zone. adjust or cancel the trade if it is not clean. I just stayed at 1h because of my rules. Also on smaller time frames everything is in the details. Getting close to but not touching is a rule found on higher TFs that means the level is still fresh. on smaller TFs getting close may count as a retracement.
Yellow lines is my Zone. Blue Line is my TP. Pink line is my SL. the line is the candle that was forming when i made these decisions.
Derk…look at your blue line…that was the level where the 3rd time price touched it broke out… essentially, you shorted RIGHT into substantial resistance. small time frame supply, right into longer time frame demand.
that’s the problem right there 
Jay
P.S. In fact, I had a long order at 4284… didn’t like PA so i closed it BE + 2 ticks… but literally your short was ony a handful of pips away from my long entry. try to find short entries where it would make no sense for someone to have a long entry very close to your short…tahts where the money is to be made.
Do you mean the previous high wicks that touched that line?? I can see that be resistance turned support. But I don’t see where the demand is really. I am just here scratching my head. which is not a good thing.
Cable scalp
I was filled at .6357. I saw a 1hour and 30 min level there. there was a lot of ranging and it broke out. Very smooth shot from ranging conjestion to the level. I took half of that distance for my TP and made 15 pips. This trade was 1:1 and on a low time frame so i used an even smaller risk amount than my usual 1:1. But its just good to have a winner today. Because my fiber was filled but i am so close to getting stopped out. I am just going to let it ride and see what happens. the forex gods- its in your hands.
FIBER UPDATE: seriously as i pressed post for this i got stopped out. Well i stuck to my guns and did what i could. I thought it was a solid level when i did my analysis. It had level on top of level. ALthough I did take a more aggressive approach and put my entry at the bottom of the level because last week my entries were not getting triggered. Anyway. I will have to look at it more indepth another day.
Day end: 1 win 2 losses. -53 pips
Hey guys giving an update for today. I took a small scalp on Cable but something odd happened and I ran. The spread changed by .8. So i got really nervous and jumped out at +1.8 pips. I should have stayed in a ridden my move as i was supposed to to make 12pips. But i felt if there is anything going wrong with my trade get out. this could be i made a mistake, got impulsive, put in order wrong. or just feel plain uncomfortable. I will cancel the order. So I just followed protocol and out i went.
Net change today: 1 trade +1.8 pips CABLE
There are a million reasons to get into a trade, and a million reasons to get out of a trade. The trick is to start collecting data, and determine which ones are statistically valid.
If a spread widening by 0.8 pips is an indicator of a broker needing to charge more, due to the fact that there are an abundance of sell or buy orders at a certain price, well, how do you know those orders arn’t actually helping you (buy orders for your long, in other words)
and how often does a wide spread contribute to a win or a loss? unless you have validated something statistically, basing a trading decision off of it is not advisable.
hope this helps,
Jay
absolutely. I really have to get a bearing onwhat matters and what doesnt. Also i know looking back i was emotional. I was playing a shorter timeframe than normal and i was nervous. i can say that in my head i may have been looking for an excuse to get out. even though i would have profited much more by letting it sit there i couldnt psychologically let it happen. Though in hindsight i wish did would have been a pretty 14pips 1 shy of my target TP. I need to train my emotions now that i am live. This will take my learning what elements to worry about and which can just flow by. now i just worry about everything
Was wondering why were you so emotional.
You trading a live account.
Yes I am trading live
Here is my only trade of the day today I lost 20 pips. I think greed got me with my TP being too large. I was in profit for a moment but walked away from my computer on a scalp, just to elimate my emotions from before. But maybe scalps need to be babysat. I am posting a chart of my trade and the timeframe i traded from was 5 min. this is from EUR/USD. I think the candle i pointed to created some support and I should have just took profit there or moved to BE. But instead i just let it run. Thoughts and comments appreciated.
Very nicely done.
your idea seems solid.
Now try to up your TF. H1 is perfect for this.
Enlarge ur TP. SL is about 30 to 40 pips.
Give it a go, You wont have that many false signals.
And finally the secret ingredient, try to get some way to look at where prices are going for the day on the higher TF.
This way you would skip all sells if its a buy and only take buy and vice versa.
Trading journal for Aug 18th.
Cable scalp short at :1.44396. TP:1.44096 SL: 1.44708 (this is my normal 30 -30 1:1 default order)
Now price started going in my direction and i wanted to move my SL to BE+1. Now here is the stupid part. so doing mental math i put in my SL. Only to discover later that i really had lost 1 pip because i was shorting and i should have subtracted from where i thought i should be. Stupid mistake and that cost me. At least that trade was in the profit and i did want it to go in that direction.
Net: -1 pip (stupidity loss)
Fiber Long
Price: 1.44101 TP:1.44402 SL: 1.43802
The purple area is the target zone i was going for. With such a large sharp rally in price i thought it was quite good. ALso the hourly was making higher lows giving me a long bias. We were midway between Supply and Demand levels so i didn’t take a bias from that at all.
here is a 15 min chart with my zone in Purple. It was wicky but i drilled down to the 1 minute for clarity.
The 1 minute chart below shows my TP in blue and my SL in red. There was another demand level that was inside my SL zone. I was hoping if the 1st one didn’t stop it the 2nd would. There was also a 4400 figure in there as well. It still didn’t do the job
Over all I haven’t had a winner and I don’t really mind I am learning a lot I hope and this journal is making sure i have a record of everything I have done. I concentrate more on my mistakes. I haven’t posted any wins yet because i haven’t had any.
Fiber Long total: -30 pips
So my understanding of your trade is that you went long on the down trend at 1.4401 @ around 05:15 in the belief that the price would rise to its previous high because of such a quick sell off inlight on increased buying pressure in the longer term charts? I think the problem here is that you picked a position between trends for a turn around (something I personally avoid doing for this very reason) and in doing so defied the very stong short term selling momentum.
My question is why the price of 1.4401? I think your level of resistance at 1.4398 is misplace, it is actually much higher. I don’t see any strong signal that there was a correction in the imediate down trend, if anything I would expect the price to go lower for the following reason (keep in mind this is based on hindsight):
Gold lines 1 & 2 shows potential resistance levels created just prior to the breakout, this was smashed through by seller momentum on the way back down indicating a very strong seller presence. In other words line 1 could not hold a bullish uptrend and line 2 could not hold a sidewide ranging trend, as neither of these levels of support held there was a good chance the price would move lower, so if anything you should probably have gone short. The thrid line (3) I have drawn shows a very steep selling momentum you could have drawn before your entry (known resistance in gold, and further predicted in orange), even if this line was broken it is not a strong buy signal on its own as it is so steep, but the fact that it was never broken definatly indicated continued selling pressure.
Overall I can see no reason to get in on that downtrend at 1.441 other than hope that it is oversold, personally it looked to me like the only decent level of resistance would be the previous low before the move upwards, which incidentily is where it stopped. You seem to have misplaced your levels of resistance and made a decision based on a longer term trend than you were trading. Although looking at longer term charts is certainly useful for identifying key prices and direction, you must not ignore the pressure which is exists in the shorter term if you are making your trades based on short term performance.
I hope i’ve understood where you entered the trade, if not please tell me and i’ll remove this inapropriate post. I hope this helps somewhat.
I really appreciate the time and effort you put into your post. I have read it and it makes a lot of sense. I have been trying to use higher time frames in order to find influence in smaller time frames. But i may be over estimating there relevance and not taking into account the current time frames action. You are definitely correct that I should have taken the lower low. I hope you continue to post your thoughts in my thread. Thank you
I’m glad you found this useful, your trading ideas seem quite similar to mine so I’ll happily weigh in my opinion if you like.
As a little follow up, I don’t think you’re over estimating the relevance of long term trends, just that you mis-applied the information in this case.
If you can see the price trending up then use that information to pick good times to trade in the 1Min (sounds obvious I know). You are right to trade with the trend, but you cannot assume that the price will rise just because the long term trend looks upward. Instead look for areas on the 1min where you believe the price [B]must[/B] continue with the longer term trend otherwise the long term trend will have to change. For example look for resistance or pullbacks levels that will either continue the long term trend or breakout and cause the 15min chart to do something new. If your 1min chart confirms a continuation of the current trend then you can enter the trade. This should prevent you getting caught out in the middle like last time, it all depends on picking the right S&R levels.
Hope that makes sense, happy trading.
[B][I]Edit:[/I][/B] Not to hijack your thread but I have a perfect example of my above which happened this morning…
Potential ranging trend on the 15min (won’t clutter your thred with my pictures :P)
[I]http://i53.tinypic.com/161clz9.gif[/I]
Confirmed as ranging on the 1min and identified the potential resistance zone around 1.4340. Price is approaching the level, so get ready for breakout or bounce off.
[I]http://i53.tinypic.com/2ykx8nt.gif[/I]
Price reaches the resistance level, cannot break through and then the buying momentum (1min uptrend) is also broken indicating a good shorting position. Exited the position after shrinking divergence through my averages, juicy pips.
[I]http://i53.tinypic.com/256b3n8.gif[/I]
(wish I was consistantly making trades that good!)
ur links seem to say invalid.
strange… I’ve uploaded them elsewhere.
Wow that is a brilliant short term trade. Using 15 and 1 min TFs i am really impressed. And glad you like my thread. All i have to say is i now understand what you are saying. This really helps illustrate it to me. fantastically juicy pips
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