That’s true, I didn’t read the whole thing. I scanned through it for 5 minutes and realised it was irrelivant, so I didn’t read it.
Your document is 13 years out of date and does not address the modern forex market.
The modern retail forex market is VERY different from the futures market of 13 years ago. In 1996 the trading of pork bellies was mostly confined to the USA and done during business hours on a trading floor or over the telephone. We are now trading currency in a global marketplace over a 24/5 worldwide, instant computer network.
90% of brokers guarantee instant transactions for anything under 50 lots, so liquidity is a non-issue. Low volume is also, for the most part, a non-issue on [B]D1 and above[/B] charts. A simple volume indicator on your charts will prove it.
And you don’t sound like an ass at all, we’re just disagreeing. There’s nothing wrong with that.
Well, I have looked at the paper and discussed it with with a finance professor friend of mine. My own conclusion is that the paper has ZERO to do with retail traders aside from suggesting that their costs don’t change based on market volatility or volume. The profitability studies were done on market makers, not retail traders. They were also done on floor traded non-electronic markets, not the nearly 100% electronic systems we operate in now. So to agree with phil, the conclusions are completely irrelevant to the discussion of retail forex trading - and never were, unless one is a market maker.
On top of that, my prof friend made the following comment on the analysis:
“… most of his regression equations have very weak statistical significance (not unexpected becuase the model is linear and being tested on a nonlinear activity).”
In other words, even back in 1996 when the study was done it wasn’t a very good piece of analysis.
I had too many hours of philosophy classes in college to fall for that one.
You’re the one making the claim, and I am refuting your claim, therefore the burden of proof is on you, not me.
If you claim the moon is made of cheese, and I say you’re wrong, then it’s your job to prove the moon is made of cheese. I don’t have to prove it’s not, you have to prove it is.
LOL I posted my proof … you disagreed with it, and sorry for that… but you fall into the 98%?
Anyways, it looks like i’m not at 50 posts yet so they took the link down… to bad because a lot of traders could have learnt from that … once i have 50 posts, i’ll post the link again
heheh yup its become proof to me , but you are 100% correct, its evidence… i got a lot of evidence and can post some more links when i get home next week… I have yet to see anyone else with counter evidence …
Since there is no aggregate volume for the spot market I’d be very curious to know what evidence you have to support that statement. I’m not saying that I disagree with the basic theory, just questioning what stats you have to back it up.
Now, what I do have is stats indicating that Mondays (which includes Sunday) and Fridays are by far the most likely day for the market to set its high/low for the week. They are in my book, which I don’t have at hand right now, but the numbers were over 50% for both across the pairs.
By that I mean better than 50% of the time Monday sees either the high or low of the week, and likewise with Friday. The middle days of the week are more like 25%, meaning the market tends to trend through the week rather than put in its turning points. (Notice I said high or low, so the %s will actually add up to 200%, which is how Mon and Fri can both be above 50%).
Are you suggesting that you think volume is just as heavy on Sundays/Mondays as it is on a Wednesday? I just want to clarify this … that when austrilia and APAC is open, you believe that because europe is not yet started their trading week and north america is not open, that volume is just as heavy? Please clarify and then i’ll post my evidence if you do think thats the case…
I don’t know you, or how you trade, but I think it’s very rude of you to say I’m a failed trader just because I don’t agree with you.
Sorry, but I’m not one of the 98% of traders that fail. I’ve been trading for years and have proved my trading ability on these forums many time over. One of my systems (the Sunday Breakout System) has made 40%+ this year, and my live results are posted on this forum in an excel spreadsheet. 5 months worth of those results are live calls that are posted before the trade take place, so the results cannot be hypothetical backtesting. This alone proves I’m one of the 2% that are making money. As you are so fond of saying… “Where is your proof?”
No offense, but it’s obvious you don’t understand what you are taking about. Daily volatility has little bearing on people trading D1 charts, and absolutely zero effect on people trading weekly charts. If you require proof of this then you need to go back and read the Babypip’s school again, because you do not have a clear understanding of how the market works.
I’m adding you to my ignore list and won’t be responding to you any more. It’s obvious you are just trying to stir up trouble and are not interested in a serious conversation.
I don’t really want to get involved with this (so why did I…lol) but even babypips school supports fxgroundworks…
When to Trade if You Want to Lose Money
Here at BabyPips.com, we don�t like to force our opinions on you. Instead, we want you to make your own decisions when it comes to your own trading. If you really do not want to trade during the busier times of the market when trade volume and pip movement is highest and where you will make money easier, then by all means, feel free to trade on these times mentioned below. We guarantee you�ll have a more difficult time trading!
Fridays: Fridays are very unpredictable. This is a good day to trade if you want to lose all the profit you made during the rest of the week.
Sundays: There is very little movement on these days. Trade this day if you want to start off your week with NEGATIVE pips.
But I’d hate to see yet another ego battle between those who claim to “know better” turn out the way they always turn out…:rolleyes:
DOn’t worry, im done… Everyone is allowed their own opinion and nobody will ever know who is right or what is best… so we can leave it at that … at the end of the day what works for me works, and what works for him might work too… couldn’t careless…
Just like you can short the euro right now and I can go long and we can both make money…
My point is all my trading is based on probability, statistics and the science of nature… I was just trying to shed light on a different way of looking at things, and hopefully trying to point out a few facts to the new ones around here…
THere are a lot of people that just talk about forex without showing their own research. I don’t care if people believe me or not, but everyone should be researching not just reading these forms … question things… it will get you further.
I didn’t say anything like that and have no idea where you got it from out of my comment - the first paragraph of which was the only one dealing with volume at all. I actually said I basically agreed that Sunday night and Friday afternoon tend to be relatively low volume periods.
