Hi there,
I hope you’re doing fantastic. I just joined yesterday and came across your strategy. I have to say I’m impressed. I haven’t tested it yet though.
Before I start testing it I wanted to know if there is any changes that you made to settings. I went through all messages but it’s quite confusing.
Can you be so kind and list all changes or add-ons.
Thank you in advance
Lionel
I’ve been a member of Babypips for over a year now but this is my first post.
I’ll start by saying this is a really interesting thread hence the reason I felt compelled to respond.
First Off, A Bit About Me.
I’ve been ‘trading’ the financial markets on and off for about five years now. I use inverted commas when I say trading because I’m technically spread betting.
Same party, different invite.
A bettor’s gambling profits are essentially tax-free here in the UK and so it makes more sense to use a spread betting platform as opposed to a more conventional trading platform.
Most UK-based spread betting platforms are also a whole lot easier to use than conventional trading platforms.
There are some limitations and drawbacks, of course, but you can’t win ‘em all, which kind of brings me to my first point.
The Secret Of Profitable Trading
Most newbies that I speak to think that successful trading is about learning to predict which way the market will turn, whether that is by studying price action, using certain indicators or formulating entirely new strategies.
They seem to think if they learn one more candlestick pattern, or discover the perfect indicator, the floodgates will be open and the money will just start rolling in. They will finally be on Easy Street and able to truly call themselves ‘profitable traders’.
It’s the traders’ dream but it’s the trading equivalent of Eldorado. It simply doesn’t exist.
Price action will not help you accurately predict which way the market will turn next.
No single indicator is accurate enough to turn a consistent profit in the markets, despite what those selling them would have you believe.
And, of course, trading is a zero sum game and so no single strategy will remain profitable forever. The more people adopt it, the less profitable it will become over time.
Now, before your impulses get the better of you all and you start disagree with me, hear me out.
Your First Priority Should Be To Learn How To Get An Edge
Successful trading, by which I mean profitable trading, comes down to one thing: having an edge.
There are a lot of other factors involved, of course, such as general education, money management and psychology but without a true certified edge, you will never make consistent profits as a trader.
That’s a hard truth to take, especially for some of those who have been on the hamster wheel of trying to learn just one more thing so that they can join the small percentage of profitable traders out there.
Lucky for you guys, I’m going to share with you exactly how you can become a profitable trader.
The way to get an edge in the market is to carefully balance your estimated win rate with your reward to risk ratio.
That’s it!
Trading is as simple as that. Anyone who tries to make it seem more complicated is probably trying to sell you something!
Now, please notice, I said ‘estimated win rate’ because going back to what I was saying earlier, none of us can predict the future and your win rate will inevitably fluctuate.
That is where a trading plan comes into it.
You need certain rules in place for when that variance does start to bite you in the backside and you do start experiencing significant drawdowns.
They will happen.
Every trader experiences them.
That Brings Me To My Second Point.
Bear with me, I’ve been silently observing these forums for a year, I’ve got a lot to say!
There are some comments in this thread about possibly trying to automate this strategy.
Automated strategies generally do not work.
Again, it’s no doubt another hard pill to swallow but it’s true.
There’s a guy whose ad springs up on virtually every trading-related video on YouTube. You all know who I am talking about. Apparently, his automated trading system will help you reach Eldorado.
A lot of people must buy his courses and software because he has been an almost permanent fixture on YouTube ads for years.
If he could truly automate his trading profits, why bother running a business selling courses and software? Why waste capital investing in businesses when he could put that moolah straight into the markets and compound his returns even further?
It’s perhaps worth remembering that the people who made the real money during the California Gold Rush weren’t the people who came in search of riches. They were the people selling clothing and supplies to those people seeking riches.
The reason I don’t believe automated trading systems work is because profitable traders have to think for themselves. Sorry, it’s hard work sometimes but it’s the truth.
For example, a successful trader might spot a particular setup that is usually handsomely profitable but hold back on entering because he knows something is about to happen news-wise perhaps that will affect the probability of the set-up being successful. The automated system would just go right ahead and carry on regardless unless someone had programmed it otherwise and you can’t factor in every possible variable. Not unless you have some kind of Quantum super-computer perhaps.
As Kenny Rogers once sung, you gotta know when to hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em.
I don’t believe any automated software out there can do that even nearly as effectively as the best traders out there.
Just for clarification here, I’m not talking about the phenomenon of automated high-frequency trading that some professional traders employ, I’m talking about supposedly automated trading systems that have made my YouTube pal and his cronies very rich over the years, not from using that software but from selling it.
That Brings Me To My Third And Final Point
I was intrigued by the strategy proposed on this thread by American Trader. Impressed with the claimed strike rate and having glanced over the EUR/USD price chart, I decided to give it a go. Since I’m not overly enamoured with demo trading, I put a small amount into one of my spread betting accounts and gave it a try.
I only used what American Trader refers to as the ‘base strategy’.
Drumroll please . . . .
I made around twelve pips profit, bearing in mind I was on the chart for less than an hour and didn’t have time to follow the strategy throughout the day.
As I look back over the chart, I estimate the recent win rate to be around sixty to seventy percent of trades that I would have actually taken.
There are times I know I would definitely not have entered and so my estimated win rate reflects those occasions.
There seemed to be a lot of debate about exit strategies so I modified things a little.
I was using a set 8 pips stop loss and, just to squeeze a bit more profit out of things, a 10 pips take profit.
My reasoning behind this is simple: If my win rate is anywhere near my estimated sixty to seventy percent, I’ll smash it. If, however, it’s lower than expected, say fifty percent, I should still turn a modest profit.
I agree with American Trader that there are seemingly enough opportunities each day to simply keep going until you do make a profit. That said, of course, don’t start chasing losses. If it’s just not happening one day for some reason, just rest up and give it another go the next day. The market’s not going anywhere. It will still be there tomorrow.
I’ll keep you all posted on my results and I’m quite happy to share my Google Sheet with you all detailing my results.
Let’s see how it goes!!!
If anything I have said here makes sense and you would like to learn more about spread betting and sports betting, feel free to subscribe to my new YouTube channel which I’ll be launching at some point in January: @SmartValueBets.
Welcome.
The settings I change are all optional and you will be successful just sticking with the original.
I will always, from time to time try to offer other settings to try to accommodate making it easier for newer traders and for experienced traders who are like me and are always looking for enhancements.
Here’s an example of something experienced traders see that I will now share.
My charts are at GMT-5 (Eastern USA time zone). If you look at the bottom of this chart you will see when the London, New York, and Sydney trading sessions open and close. Unfortunately, they are in GMT-0 so they are shifted 5 hours. So where it shows London, its actually New York, etc. But regardless. They do show what happens at the beginning of each session.
Do you see a valuable trend?
Fixed
My charts are at GMT-5 and the session indicators at the bottom of the chart are at GMT-0.
I have text where the sessions really begin.
Fantastic post!
I consider it added value to the forum.
I will only add that I am suggesting the tighter stop losses because I believe any newer trader’s first experience may be a loss and it should be small if that happens. I suggest taking the small loss and reentering when price returns in desired direction. (This is only opinion and everyone will have their own preference) I am pleased to have your input absolutely any time. You appear to be a prime example of where we wish to be in our trading careers.
I’m replying to myself here. Just wanted to Pat myself on the back for my prediction on those PSAR settings for yesterday and the traders who used them. Looks like there was a hundred pips there.
I still don’t see what to look at with the PSAR, but I am trying. Other thing, I also would consider one basic rule mentioned by many traders placing my trade - trade with trend. There are for sure many pips against the trend, but since I am newbie in trading, probably it will reduce loss probabilities.
It was unclear, I thought about trend of the channel.
The beauty of the system. Placing the proper stop loss in the suggested place eliminates any big losses. When you feel ready and have seen many missed opportunities because of fear when trading against the trend, I bet you will decide to trade both with and against it. Yesterday we saw big money to be made both ways during an uptrend.
There’s nothing wrong with playing it safe for now, though, and sticking with the trend until you feel ready. Obviously, you never need to do anything you think is risky. Its your money and It sounds like you are doing the right thing.
As for the PSAR, it can be a Plan B alternative, or you can use it like I do, as a combo-strategy.
If you are sitting in your house trading, you will be using the EMAs. If you are out and about during the day, you may want to use the PSAR to send signals to your phone. You then pull up the chart and see if there is also a crossover signal coming.
Once you have a good account balance and you can have bigger stop losses, you can trade on just the PSAR and let it run until it sends you the next signal. You should have a win/loss ratio over 60% which most traders would kill for. Days like yesterday you would have had zero losses and be 100 pips happier.
What do you mean PSAR sending signals? Sending when there is a major change in PSAR? How laggy is PSAR?
P.S.
The next opportunity I get to be on the forum all morning I will be posting places for probable earlier entries. These will have extremely tight stop losses and they either win big or lose a couple of pips.
I wish I could tell you what day that will be but as long as I’m still working, I am always being begged to go out and take on jobs my clients can’t get anyone else to do.
Thats something people are paying for, you already helped the babypips community a lot 
I hope so, my friend. If others here are losing than you know I am too.
Had enough of that. It won’t be long before I’m jealous because others are passing me by. One day, we’ll decide which Mexican oceanfront resort we should all meet at and shake hands and raise a glass.
You have to use a free PSAR indicator that is capable of sending push signals. You are on Tradingview, right? I am on MT4 so I am not familiar with the indicators available for you. I think you have plenty, if not more though.
The one I use is called “PSAR with trendline and signals”, I think.
Lagging is not a problem because you may want to wait for an additional candle after the signal anyway.
I am trading on MT5, but since that time I am working in office I can only watch tradingview on PC and open positions on mobile.
It is difficult to trade while in an office at work. Are you just keeping trades open for 10 - 15 minutes?
** I get up early to trade whenever I can.
second edit: With scalping, we can be done with a few trades before you leave for work.
As I live in Hungary, Europe, main trading hours are just when I have to work, so alerts would be just nice for me. I try to make some success in trading so I can quit this job.
And yes, not leaving trades open too long, but with proper tp and sl there is no need to watch them.
Excellent!
Seeing if we get any bounce off 15M chart resistance. Trying for 5 pips.
50/50 odds.
