I would expect a couple of pullbacks before hitting 148. 142 looks like a strong candidate for one of them. So I add another buy position after it pulls back and I get confirmation with another green engulfing candle.
EMA strategy for M1, M5 on major pairs.
Channel strategy with cost averaging for D1 on all pairs with spread under 20.
Its working great.
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Cad/Nok should be 300 pips (cumulative from 2 entires) in next 2-4 days.
Usd/Jpy still looks like 450 pips per entry but could take a couple of weeks.
Not seeing any other high probability daily trades so far (other than mirror pairs (Gbp/Jpy).
***Adding positions along the way could add hundreds of additional pips.
(all long positions)
Bear in mind that this time last year, JPY had been very bearish and suddenly took a big retracement. Itās definitely weak and will probably remain so, but after such big moves, the market usually takes a breath
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The big trends create the most risk with the counter trend / cost averaging method. Has anyone experimented with hedging when it becomes clear that youāre in a tough trend?
I canāt hedge on U.S brokers.
I have been ok so far just by looking at the daily charts to see if it makes sense to continue to manage the trades. I check the daily before doing my M1 and M5 EMA strategy scalping too. It gives me more confidence, and so far, so good.
I actively daytrade, if you canāt do this then itās a tough road.
I just allowed someone access to my daytrades to follow for themselves.
Iām also in the U.S. and hedging is a no-go because of FIFO. But you could stop out and then re-enter later with the same position size. The only difference is psychological.
With a hedge:
A directional decision has to be made to open a hedge, then the loss is ālocked inā neither increasing or decreasing while the hedge is in place. Then another directional decision has to be made for when to sell the profitable side of the hedge. Now the loss is unfrozen in expectation that the trade will move in your favor.
With a stop-loss:
A directional decision has to be made to close the position, then the loss is ālocked inā neither increasing or decreasing while the position is closed. Then another directional decision has to be made for when to re-open the position. Now the loss is unfrozen in expectation that the trade will move in your favor.
I would argue that stopping-out and re-entering has the advantage of not tying up as much margin. (no need to have two positions) Iāve been doing this lately when I realize Iām in a tough trend. I close the position, then I re-enter when I see the trend running out of steam or when itās approached an SR level.
You have to keep up with where your break-even is though. I keep a horizontal line on my charts and move it accordingly. This helps me to see the individual trades (averaging, stopping out, re-entering) as a single trade that Iām managing back into profit. It helps me psychologically. I also have more confidence in this strategy, because I feel like I have better risk management.
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Oh, I agree with all of that. Even the workarounds of going the opposite direction on a pair that tends to mirror, such as euro/jpy and Gbp/Jpy.
Iām sure they will come a time and I need to do that.
I tried hedging with correlated pairs. Then one day the correlation diverged significantly and I had two losing positions and even less margin. 
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My D1 Cad/Nok long gave me 60 Pips this morning, which I closed out and then re-entered. Hope to get another 60 out by the end of the week.
My usd/jpy long has not shown much movement so far today. Could be an opportunity to add a position coming up if it drops down a little bit more.
Ha!
AUDUSD coming around like you said! Picked up a nice 45 pips on EURUSD too. Itās still moving.
Are you primarily using the 1% strategy these days?
Or still the EMA channel?
I do the 1% EMA strategy every day and doing price action on a maximum of 2 daily charts at a time so they donāt eat up my margin.
I have the channels applied to all my daily charts because I am planning on letting some of those run for weeks, maybe months (it goes completely against my nature). The daily ones are micro lots so it is stress free. $10 per entry here, $40 per entry there, another $70 per entry somewhere else, and so on. I add positions after pullbacks. What I hope to see happen is an extra thousand dollars from this by yearās end (Test mode).
If it keeps working like it has, Iāll increase to mini-lots and I expect to make an extra ten thousand + doing it next year.
I think I can now just make a quick daily check on my open daily chart trades to look for opportunities to add positions or to see if the trend is reversing. Its pretty nice because once you have 2 or more open positions, you are in profit most of the time. So if I have 1 chart that is losing money, the other one is generally making money so the stress is still gone.
Eventually, they both make money.
**Everything is in profit for now.
Oh man, good for you! Plenty of hard work went into that, so congrats!
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