Sceptical

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1

Hello FX community… Great site, have been reading here for quite a few months.

I’m Andrew and have been Share Trading on and off since 2004 with some success so I thought I would give FX a go…
Tons to learn about price action and relying on indicators as little as possible but overall understand FX principles although its like trading shares on steroids…

I have been “Demoing” for over 3 months now with 65 - 75% of profitable trades overall and have just opened a small live account (ECN) using cTrader platform (which reminds me of a Keno screen).

I have been watching a lot of Youtube FX advice and cramming as much information which is possibly causing information overload, so I have a few strategies and account preserving techniques.

I am finding it hard to maintain faith in FX as I am perplexed how often a Buy becomes resistance and a Sell a support (miles away from historic support and resistance points). And how many stops have been taken out by .001 of a PIP (from 20+ pips away) only to have the price go into complete reversal after the hit… 75%… and yes I have read all the “its not the broker, its the market hunting the stops for liquidity” sermons.

I fully understand that profitable traders here put in big time research and hold tight strategies that give consistent results (same as shares). Trading 1% or less of my account per position while live so I haven’t been hurt financially as yet. Anyway RANT over, probably 1000’s of newbie traders with the same sorry tale.

Next week I’ll try rolling dice to get price direction on entry… 2 dice 5- Sell / 5+ Buy :slight_smile:

Yours Exasperatingly…

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Most commendable, I’m sure: I’ve always found that a very healthy and beneficial attitude, myself. :wink:

Well done … I think. That sounds rather a high win-rate - I’m tempted to ask whether your losing trades are each costing more than your winning trades are making (not that it’s any of my business :8: ) … anyway, I’m just trying to offer the observation, in case it’s helpful, that [B]expectancy[/B] matters [U]far[/U] more than win-rates.

Welcome to the forum, and good luck with your funded account. :cool:

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Nice post lexys - and I just have to love your shoes!

Hi Andrew - If its any consolation, I have found that all through this year, most forex trends that should have continued have stalled badly, again and again, or just gone in to ranging sideways. It has been a very poor year for me from March onwards. There is nothing objective in the forex charts I can point to, and of course, at that date Brexit and the Trump election result were not on the realistic horizon.
I am wondering if anyone else has had this experience but it seems you might have too. Perplexing to say the leats.

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Thanks for the replies. not trying to be negative just objective, people that cannot afford to are losing serious money to FX.

Win rate is correct, not here to “bullsheet”, even had an 81% week in there back in October (Demo)… some sessions a lot of TP’s are $3 - $5 if I get the entry wrong and get stuck waiting for a flash reversal back into profit or losses of similar proportions waiting to exit at the best possible loss… can be time consuming…problem 1

My simple strategy is a scalping system: I trade the 5min/15min charts with 40k (1:400) positions with an -11 pip TSL and a +TP of 4.5 pips giving me ~ AUD$30.00 each successful trade. I try to complete 5 (at screen) trades during the Asian session and walk away for hours and then complete another 5 trades in the mid to late European session which on average nets between $220 - $280 per day. I average about 4-6 hours a day screen time and some days it can take up to 18 - 20 trades to achieve my target of $250… over-trading has been noted.

I use either EMA 10 - 16 crossover on trends (with EMA 50) or the CCI +95 breakout (or down) indicator to signal entry and exit points. I have a mental SL at 4 pips if it looks like I have got the entry way wrong… yes, yes, yes…doing it the hard way I know, but its profitable. I am trying clean charts and price action on the Demo but the results, well…

Problem 2, To make a real profit out of FX you need to go to bigger positions and longer time frames.
I am trying to move to the higher time frames (away from screen) but I am really struggling to get anymore than 15 - 20 pips before winning trades transform into losing trades, including intraday charts.

Anyway, I hope this helps other newbies to build up some kind of “trading float” so they can keep their startup funds “off the table”.

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Indeed …

Thanks for a very interesting post! (And somewhat unexpected: I didn’t realise your original post was going to turn out to be a prelude to such an interesting conversation.)

I agree with much you say, anyway.

[I]In a sense[/I], the way you’re trading has a couple of rather fundamental things in common with the way I’m trading.

I don’t trade spot forex, don’t use indicators and typically take only about 8 trades per day. [I][U]Apart from that[/U][/I] (as in “Apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, what did you think of the play?!”), we’re doing something similar: trading little and often with our high win-rate set-ups, doing hard work, finding it profitable, and so on.

Same here.

I don’t mind that. I don’t go out much, like my own company, like to spend endless hours online, and so on. It doesn’t suit everyone, of course.

Here’s where I perhaps don’t quite agree with you …

I’m not so sure. I think I’d say “To make a real profit out of forex you need to go to bigger positions [B][U]or[/U][/B] to longer time-frames”; the different conjunction is significant. You can build up gradually (especially with forex - actually more easily and smoothly with forex than with the futures I trade).

Fair enough. (That actually suits me much better, but I know it’s an enormous learning-curve).

Anyway, you’ve found something that’s working for you, and working well by the sound of it.

I appreciate your frustrations (or some of them, anyway), but you’re very clearly doing [I]far, far[/I] better than an enormous proportion of aspiring forex traders. And long may it last (and build).

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Thanks Lexys, your post is appreciated…

The first time I saw an FX Demo my eyes lit up… after trading the snail like ASX, Forex was a revelation.

I had a business for 20 years which cost $150k to setup with staff and overheads and an ever fluctuating market place…entry into FX in comparison is a bargain… Account Funds $2000 (less than a rent bond) $1000 for 49’ screen and 4k PC to push it, a FREE Demo, no account setup costs… Biggest plus for me was that if the market isn’t right to trade, switch off and go do something else…no overheads… sure you may blow up a small account every now and then but in Oz it is tax deductible (as is each commission) against your profits…

You just have to set a plan and stick at it. I found the first couple of months very stressful as the Demo results were crap… But there is so much free advice on the internet (some great some not) that with a Demo and a lot of perseverance you can improve your results dramatically. The best advice I found was only trade amounts you are comfortable with so I started trading 1000k lots (-15 pips =$1.60) and was no longer petrified to enter the trade… getting my psychology under control has been far the greatest hurdle.

FX is very much a lifestyle and my goal is to be geographically “unhinged”… retire to a quiet part of Oz and not have to worry about the lack of employment. But I also don’t want to be stuck at a PC screen 6 hours a day either, hence the future requirement of away from screen “safe” trades.