Seems like a long journey towards live trading

Beginner Questions
1

I’ve stopped practicing on my demo account in order to better understand trading. I’ve been reading and watching a lot about the markets and how the trading industry works. In this I’ve come to see how everything has been setup for retail traders to fail. I’m now trying to figure out how I can avoid falling into the traps laid out by the industry, ie investment banks, brokers and “educators”.

I’m turning into a sceptic and find i have a hard time trusting any information at all. It seems everyone who is offering information has something to gain from you buying into what they’re saying. I’m looking to properly educate myself, but it’s difficult.

From what I’ve learned the professional traders are way ahead of retail traders in reading how the markets MAY go and with the amount of resources available to them they are more likely to take advantage. I watched a short video about how Barclays had developed a strategy around retail traders creating volatility. And this for me shows how retail traders in general are just used for the professionals to make money.

I’ve come to believe that in order to succeed I need to have a trading system that is based mostly on fundamental analysis, but also some part technical. Psychology is also important, but I find that as a separate field of study. I’m seeing myself not day trading, due to my life situation with work and family. I’m starting to believe I’d like to trade in markets and assets that aren’t on the radar of the banks and hedge funds as it seems they can manipulate it at any time. And I don’t want to be a pawn in their game. The problem I’m having is that I don’t know how I can get to where I want. Which resources and education material to i need. And how can I develop a system based on my criteria. How much of the markets and economics to I need to understand in order to gain the proper foundation of knowledge to be able to trade accordingly? And it’s it possible to do this on my own without someone to guide me through the process? For me it seems like a long road to start trading…

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I wonder if you’re seeing trading as a conflict between you personally and the banks and brokers, i.e. the rest of the world. Is this reality?

As an exercise, take a look at AUD/JPY on D1, over the last 4 years, then zoom in to the last 4 months, then the last 4 weeks. What are the factors which would have stopped you making money on this market since 2020?

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The only thing stopping you from making money in the market is YOU. Batten down the hatches. It’s gonna be a bumpy ride.

imagen

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The problem I’m having is that I don’t know how I can get to where I want.

the answer is lying under your skin= your personality.your preference will decide which path you go,before you reach the mutual goal (constantly profit),some may take years ,some take decades,i for example ,spend 14 years to figure out how to profit ,2 more years to adapt and apply and nail it.

so ask yourself ,if you have complex personality ,you better move fast .go test out as much as strategies you can ,pick out the part you like and hate for it ,try everything to get to know your preference ,and admit that you are fear of so many things ,and more important ,teach yourself how to deal with your fear,and respect your fear ,understand that your fear is merely saving your ass most of the time.

after thousands and thousands of time of trying ,maybe ,just maybe somehow you will make it .but then,you will have new problem ,how big lot size you will go to get the fortune you dream of?after all these sicken trading learning experience?it take lot of time to multiply your fund.

i wish you lucks .

5

Yes, as of this current moment this is my understanding. Is it reality? I can’t say. My understanding is formed by what I read and watch. I find being a beginner really difficult. Having practically zero former knowledge, It seems like an uphill battle to sift through the information that is available.

By looking at this chart, I see that this pair has been in an upward trend for the last 4 years. And it’s not having like big breakouts or long periods of consolidation. So it seems like a pair that kind of follows the textbook flow of the market. That to me indicates that what would have stopped me from making money is typically bad trading practices, ie entries and exits, and poor risk management. And that would lead me to say that me is the one factor.

It all goes back to me reading and watching in order to educate myself and end up with beliefs I’m not sure are serving me. Hence my post. I just want proper information so I can start to put into practice.

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6

That’s definitely right.

But some people find that the major hurdles, although they prevent the great majority of retail traders from ever becoming profitable, are actually not that difficult to circumvent.

There are a few (actually very simple) things you can do to, to avoid the deck being completely stacked against you. Obvious examples:-

  1. Don’t use Metatrader

  2. Don’t use a not-properly-regulated “broker” (they’re normally easy to spot from the high leverage they offer)

  3. Don’t try to learn mostly from videos, PDFs and forums

  4. Don’t depend mostly on indicators for trade-entry signals

  5. Truly master all you need to know about statistics and probability (from Michael Harris’s book or an equivalent - this is really very important and something very few people do!)

  6. Switch from CFDs to futures as early as you possibly can (dead easy and much more beneficial than most beginners realise)

It is. It’s terribly difficult to judge by whom to be guided. And that’s what it’s all about, really.

Sorry, but I couldn’t disagree more.

All my successful trader friends, including former institutional traders now retired/semi-retired and now trading a bit independently, would also disagree strongly with that.

Fundamentals are mostly what move prices, obviously, and prices are obviously what move technicals, of course, so the proportion of my trading that’s indirectly influenced by fundamentals is clearly high, but in spite of that fundamentals are one of the areas of trading in which a retail trader has no chance of being able to compete with the market’s big players, because they have research departments, skills, facilities and information that I can never possibly use, but when it comes to technicals not only can I do that, but I can even sometimes have certain advantages over them (e.g. leverage), if I go about it the right away.

Fundamentals are already reflected in technicals before technicals get as far as us.

The only times I look at fundamentals, myself, are to make sure I avoid scheduled news.

People vary. It is for some people, but they’re a very small minority.

No argument there.

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I love the self-awareness from your post. Yes, as @dushimes suggested, what will stop you making money on AUD/JPY is yourself. The banks won’t stop you - in fact, for 4 years they have been sign-posting the way for you to go - not out of charity - it’s just that they have reasons why they want to buy the AUD and sell the JPY and nothing was going to stop them.

I’m not convinced that the traders who study 40 hours a week make 10 times as much money as those who study 4 hours a week.

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Absolutely.

And very nicely put!

And very interesting!

I do think, though, that people with some intrinsic ability (maybe genetic and/or environmental and/or educational?) to learn what they need to know about probability and statistics - both actually really difficult subjects! - are probably WAY ahead of the crowd.

And those could actually even be the ones mostly studying 4 hours per week rather than 40?!

I also think that people who innately have that ability typically don’t even begin to understand the extent to which others lack it, or how very significant that is.

You only have to look at things like discussions of the famous “Monty Hall paradox”, and arguments about it (if you don’t mind your hair standing on end!), to be rapidly astonished and confounded by the extent to which the people who instinctively “do understand it” fail to appreciate how and why other people just “don’t understand it”. They’re two tribes. And that’s putting it really politely!

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Probability, that is the key, I would say. Probability is the engine of success in trading. Traders who accept probability will make money.

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We agree 100% (maybe partly why I always appreciate your posts so much: we have a very important shared belief/attitude, there).

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I’m not going to argue this. This is just another example of me trying to find good information and end up with a belief that is not backed up. I really appreciate the ones who have some give knowledge and are commenting. It makes me able to course correct👍

This is really interesting. I actually formulated something along the lines that if you understand probabilities and can apply it, it’s the way to go. But, I forgot about it while going further into the jungle of information. So thank you for bringing it to my attention! I’ll definitely get the recommended book :slightly_smiling_face:

And this is confirming the above, and coming from you I find it validating the perspective.

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Which of his books would you recommend?

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I meant only “Profitability and Systematic Trading: A Quantitative Approach to Profitability, Risk, and Money Management” (Wiley Trading).

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I feel your pain! Studied for a year and got all the basic/rote information with an overload of the gurus or ‘edges.’

Hard to decipher what is accurate, truthful, helpful, a rabbit hole, or only useable by someone’s specific trading style. Or all of the above. Drove me nuts! I understand that everyone finds their way but felt pretty alone while everyone was jamming on some theory or idea. Really thinking, “Am I that stupid!?!”

In my mind, I was going to start learning Wyckoff as it was the only tried and true system that had been around. This would be the start of my education that would give a complete strategy and introduction to holistic concepts. I would start there if you don’t trust anyone.

What I ended up doing is finding a guy who teaches his method that incorporates S/R, Price Action, and fundamentals. Watching him convinced me way more than the others. Straightforward, really smart, makes sense, everything is explained. It’s not a ‘proprietary’ method, just a method utilizing standard trading principles and applies them with his rules. And you can watch him for free, everyday, trading and trade with him. Watch all his YT vids for free to see if you like it. Good guy, responds to questions and comments, knows his stuff. Answers in live with usable info, not platitudes. Watch and talked to him for 3 months before joining his group. Really inexpensive.

The group is great. We all trade live together London and New York. London on Zoom daily, NY Zoom on Wednesday. And always on Discord discussing possible trades during the day. Positive people, upbeat. You can give plans for the day and Harry will analyze for you. He puts out weekly & daily analysis to follow. Oh! And there’s a weekly webinar where you can ask questions live. We’re all active on Discord and ask questions and get responses. BTW, we are scalpers.

At any rate, if you can’t tell, really love this group. Great place to start to get my trading legs and also to get feedback. Answers to questions. And you get to talk the guy. Not admin or other folks. Totally available for all questions. Daily.

You can DM and I’ll give you his YT channel. Check out for free and go from there. He has a 2024 course which will explain his style. Sorry for going on so long but I was in your shoes and very upset, This helped.

15

Mag$$$,

I respect your sentiments and observations. You’re right, it can be daunting task to learn trading and where to even begin. I do have a recommendation that I’m curious to get your observations on, if you’re willing. May I suggest Ross Cameron, Warrior Trader? He is very transparent, he is a 10-year experienced trader who has lost money and similarly, educated himself and identified those traps, even fell into some of those traps. He shares his losses too, not just the winners. He’s on YouTube and offers free classes for you to look at. Yes he has courses and simulator that you can pay for, but the majority of his material is free. There are good and honest traders out there who want you to succeed. He is one of them. Much success to you and your family.

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Hi @S_Jane_M , if it’s dead easy I must be confused. Inspired by your recommendations here about switching to futures (with thanks) I have been fishing around for info on how to go about it. I wonder if I misunderstand stuff: my favourite instrument to bet on is the DAX German stock index but what I read on the Nexusfi.com forum (as advised by our fellow BP poster @flamingoproxy :wink: ) is that required margins for DAX futures on the ‘real’ market are too large for my budget and contracts too expensive as my current risk appetite is just GBP 70 a pop. So I decide to wait until my account has grown substantially, but are we talking about the same thing? Or is what I read a bunch of BS? I don’t think I can get valid info from my current broker (=dealer) because the kind of ‘futures trading’ they offer is through their CFD or spreadbet and with horrendous spreads, obviously not the real thing. Do I make sense?