Simple strategy with high% accuracy

My strategy is simple. I use only Tenkan-sen (9) and my trading time is fixed at 7am (GMT+8).

Currency pair: EURUSD
TF: M15

I will long when the closing price is below Tenkan-sen, TP @ 10pips; SL @ 100pips
I will short when the closing price is above Tenkan-sen, TP @ 10pips, SL @ 100pips

I will not trade when the candlestick is a doji / short body long tail.
I only do 1 trade at a time.

Things to note is that I only backtest from 11/3/2013 to today (13/11/2013) as that’s the Maximum data I have. Total trading made: 114 trades, 109 win, 5 lose.

Another thing to note is my lot size is different everyday. Lot size = capital/2/1,000.
Example if my current capital is 5,000, my lot size will be 5,000/2/1,000 = 2.5lot

Base on the record from 11/3/2013 - 13/11/2013 with a starting capital of 1,000 and with this strategy, the amount that I will be having now will be close to 100,000.

As my data is limited, so I would like to see if there is anybody who has a longer past data to backtest for the accuracy.

Pretty sure you could buy at any random level with a 10pip TP and a 100 pip SL and still get the similar results.

0.1 : 1.0 (Reward: Risk) is very nasty looking.

However, good luck.

Why is your data limited? How do you backtest?
You don’t have MT4, or forex tester, or ninja trader?

I have MT4, I backtest manually… candlestick by candlestick

probably yes, buy at random level could get similar result. and i also understand the risk is too much compared to reward. That is why i need higher accuracy to compensate the risk

Look into how to backtest EAs on MT4. Even if you don’t use EAs, it will show you how to import years of data into MT4.

I’d also advice to google something called VHandsTrade for MT4, you may want it if you have some time to invest in manual backtests.

My personnal favorite solution for backtests is forex tester 2, but you have to pay to get the full version (legally…).

I’m pretty sure you could get more data from MT4 charts. Also, the risk:reward doesn’t leave much room for losses. You’ll have to win 10x to cover 1 full loss. Do you adjust your stop losses at any time during these trades? Thanks!

how to get more data? im still search for ways to get the data. i didnt adjust the stop losses…

Forex Tester 2 has a data service where you can download tick data / 1M data from 2010 from different brokers, but you have to pay. Pepperstone has tick data from 2009 for free but I haven’t used them yet. (https://pepperstone.com/mt4-forex-trading/mt4-tick-chart-history-data.php)

The other thing with extreme R:R ratios is that you need a much larger sample size to verify your system than if you used a more balanced R:R ratio like 1:1. With extreme R:R ratios, you’re much more sensitive to a string of bad (or good) events, which may not be detected in a small sample size.

on MT4:
Tools -> History Center
select the currency and timeframe you want, click import.

For full details:
http://forums.babypips.com/expert-advisors-automated-trading/52287-tutorial-complete-backtesting-analysis-setup-100-free.html