My strategy is simple. I use only Tenkan-sen (9) and my trading time is fixed at 7am (GMT+8).
Currency pair: EURUSD
TF: M15
I will long when the closing price is below Tenkan-sen, TP @ 10pips; SL @ 100pips
I will short when the closing price is above Tenkan-sen, TP @ 10pips, SL @ 100pips
I will not trade when the candlestick is a doji / short body long tail.
I only do 1 trade at a time.
Things to note is that I only backtest from 11/3/2013 to today (13/11/2013) as that’s the Maximum data I have. Total trading made: 114 trades, 109 win, 5 lose.
Another thing to note is my lot size is different everyday. Lot size = capital/2/1,000.
Example if my current capital is 5,000, my lot size will be 5,000/2/1,000 = 2.5lot
Base on the record from 11/3/2013 - 13/11/2013 with a starting capital of 1,000 and with this strategy, the amount that I will be having now will be close to 100,000.
As my data is limited, so I would like to see if there is anybody who has a longer past data to backtest for the accuracy.
probably yes, buy at random level could get similar result. and i also understand the risk is too much compared to reward. That is why i need higher accuracy to compensate the risk
I’m pretty sure you could get more data from MT4 charts. Also, the risk:reward doesn’t leave much room for losses. You’ll have to win 10x to cover 1 full loss. Do you adjust your stop losses at any time during these trades? Thanks!
The other thing with extreme R:R ratios is that you need a much larger sample size to verify your system than if you used a more balanced R:R ratio like 1:1. With extreme R:R ratios, you’re much more sensitive to a string of bad (or good) events, which may not be detected in a small sample size.