Simple trading versus complicated trading

I’ve been reading a lot of stuff about simple easy ways to make money in the markets, Forex, Futures, Stocks, by uncomplicated trading methods. By using few as possible if any indicators and judging the trends and setups by simply knowing time frames and when to enter the trend. Of course there is a cost, some not to expensive to downright thousands of dollars, which I can’t afford anyway. But short of having a personnel coach or mentor are these courses valid or are these methods something you just pickup along the way while learning your own style of trading.

I can’t speak for an specific courses, but generally speaking, the simpler the method, the better the chance of it working. When I see a system with a ton of indicators, I run.

@Pingback: DONT DO IT D:! and by that i mean dont pay any money for any system, indicator, or ea. ever. seriously :l

I have bought two courses in the past:
Market Traders Institute Ultimate Traders Package: $6,000
Nial Fuller’s Price Action Trading Methods (comes with access to his forums and daily trades): $400

I can tell you from personal experience that these two courses have a wide array of awesome information, strategies, fundamental theory, market psychology training etc. And i can also tell you that you can find literally everything in both of these courses within the Baby Pips School of Pipsology, i’m not kidding :l

There is quite literally an infinite amount of ways one can trade the market profitably, different indicators, different strategies, different types of analysis, it all depends on the trader who is trading that system, I think when people go out and buy a system or training course all they are looking for is the strategy that professionals use, because then it has to work right?

WRONG!! :stuck_out_tongue:

If you could just take someones strategy and trade it yourself and be profitable then everyone who tries out the forex would be rich, so then why isnt that so? Because in the same way price moves by market psychology, the most difficult part of trading is controlling your own psychology and emotions, most people cant do it, otherwise you could go into the forums right now and look at someones strategy and be profitable starting tomorrow, but that isnt the case…

Because all of this is true you can assume A) That it is not the system or method you trade that makes you directly profitable; therefore you don’t need to pay for a trading system when you have access to an unlimited amount of profitable strategies online and B) Because controlling my own psychology to trade like a machine is what makes me directly profitable (good traders can make money trading any decent strategy) then what i need to do is pick a strategy and learn it like the back of my hand, and then train myself to trade it to the letter

I can personally recommend my own system, it has no indicators, is very simple to those with a basic knowledge of the forex, and is extremely profitable to those who can trade it properly: 301 Moved Permanently

"The basic idea behind this system is simple, when there is indecision in the market there are only three things that can happen

  1. The price will continue in the same direction
  2. The price will reverse and go the opposite way
  3. The price will stay indecisive

So all this system does is find the signs of indecision then decide where it is most probable the market will go"

I also prefer to simple trading strategies as these strategies are easy to follow and implement as well.

A trading strategy that has less number of Indicators and other factors which makes us decide whether to do the trades or not is the best approach.

This will also let us take the advantage of short trading opportunities when they do come.

I guess we can profit from both approch simple and complicated, but too much complication complicates the outcome :slight_smile: unless you really know what you are doing, i always go back to basic and basic is simple and more helpful :slight_smile:

Finding a system that suits your personality is more important than anything else. Does not matter if it is simple or complicated (assuming you fully understand how it works of course).

Find a system that matches your goals, objectives, time frame and risk attitude and you will be well on your way to profitability.

P.S. This is why most people create their own system, but they do tend to take the foundation from another system they came across.

Naked chart

I agree with SithJawa. The info you can find in courses can be readily found for free on the internet. But I guess the benefit of a course is that they package all the relevant information, so it’s a convenient way to learn. You can also have access to tutors, mentors, other people using the same system/course etc. However, if you buy a system or course that clashes with your personality, you’re out of luck. These days I prefer to design my own systems. And generally-speaking, the fewer indicators you use, the “better”. What you want is quality information, not quantity. Too much information can become noise, or different indicators can give conflicting signals etc etc etc.

First you must understand how price moves.

There might be a few variations on WHY it moves the way it does, but that is not important.

Understand HOW it moves on different TFs and how they all interlock together. ( trust me they got nothing to do with Indicators. )

Than figure out how to statistically give yourself a little edge so that your chances of winning on the long run is increased.

The rest my friend is just logic 101.

I have a RSI, ATR, Parabolic SAR, MACD, Relative Vigor Index, Fractals, Alligators and a Temperature indicator for the third moon of Saturn.

I wait for all these to line up, usually get one trade per decade if im really lucky, but I risk my entire account on this trade.

The simplest strategy is totally related to the one you understand.

I met the Director of Leverate when i was in Israel last year and we had a big chat. He became one the best arbitrage traders in the world. He developed a computer model and something something something that I don’t understand. Some how his programme was able to make a trades based on the fact that it new what the price of the broker was going to be since not all brokers offer the same price. Basically in abitratge trading your a hacker. He somehow developed the fastest forex feed in the world. Some brokers can be 10+ pips off the real price and need to catch up. I don’t really know exactly how he done it since this guy was a computer wiz bang maniac. It was like knowing the lottery numbers before they came out.

He asked me how I trade. I’m basically a price action breakout trader, i look for levels of significance in the market (major psychological support and resistance levels) where there is an extreme bias, when that level is broken and the bias is extremely evident and obvious I make the trade. I showed him and he got very confused about how I trade.

Bottom line is, i think my method of trading is very simple and it’s easy for me to follow since i developed the method and the style myself. I now its strong points its week points. Its almost become a part of me and we are one. Just like you would know your spouse intimately i know my method intimately and we’ve been together for years. The director of Leverate could tell me exactly the same thing about the way he trades. Yet to me it was the most complicated and most extreme trading method in the whole entire world. Yet he thought it was simple. LOl.

I know the above example is an extreme example but i’m trying to prove a point.

May you would like to know that all the 9 planets align this year around November. Maybe you can get a loan from the bank as well and use 1:500 leverage. :wink: hahahaha

Thats when the world will end, at least Greece wont have worry any longer about pis*ing off their neighbours!

Re: paying to learn to trade…well I’ve been through a lot of courses (some very expensive)…luckily not on my dime as financial information, trading, risk and algo systems is an area I have been dealing with and working with many of the well known global name brand professional financial institutions for over 17 years (who pay for such training), and in my opinion, the best way to learn how to trade isn’t from someone who hasn’t made a substantial amount from trading, nor is it focusing on learning to use a brand new indicator or some very simple approach which possibly will combine a number of indicators.

Now I’d like to make a distinction…I do believe education is very important and if you would like to learn a method or an indicator or how fib levels work, that’s great…you are learning some basic information that is nice to know. But please realize you are learning a topic, not learning how to trade profitably. If you really wish to know how to trade profitably, I believe a starting point is first knowing what the pros do and don’t do and more importantly know when to act.

So, while I have no doubt that there are many ways to be a successful trader, at least what I’ve seen, at minimum what I don’t see professional institutional traders do is relying on multiple fancy indicators to become successful.

With the risk of repeating myself and some other comments on this above, what I do see them do is have :
a. A consistent trading approach with a clear demonstrable edge. The problem with most strategies, systems, approaches, etc., most say there’s a high probability, or an edge, but unless it’s clearly quantified that’s backed up by historical and actual trades, it’s not that useful. At minimum, you need a model with an edge that YOU can execute consistently on. The problem of being too complicated is either : (1) too many variables for you to execute consistently and/or (2) the model is over optimized using back data rendering it useless in real life

In a way, this is quite related to Daniel’s comment above…which I usually like to explain as…simple…not simpler. ie. simple relative to your own style and understanding and ability to consistently execute…however, if too simple of an approach, I doubt this will work either without some serious risk…if you are considering to buy or learn a system and they claim to have a high probability or edge, then I suggest ask them to show you quantifiable evidence of track record of at least 200 sequential trades; also ask if any part of their buy or sell is subjective and see if you can follow it (if it is too subjective or has too much risk, it will be very difficult to execute consistently on) and also ask if others have actually replicated what they are teaching that can also show a quantified edge to you. With this information, it will give you a better idea if there is indeed an edge and if it is realistic for you to execute on it.

b. A money management approach to maximize a proven quantifiable positive expectation. You don’t need to have the most brilliant system as long as it has a positive expectation. If you don’t know what your systems’ expectation is or don’t know your own, in the long run you can assume your sunk as you will slowly bleed out your hard earned money if you don’t at least have a model with a slight positive expectation (ie. edge). However, assuming you have a bare minimum edge (with a positive expectation), you can certainly make a lot if you know how to manage the risk first and then second, figure out how to scale your ‘bets’. Most believe having a 3 to 1 risk to reward and clear stop is your money management approach…if it is…then you will need to work harder on this as most beginners I’ve seen focus way too much time on learning a new entry or worse the latest new indicator (ie. flavor of the month)

c. Ability to know the Trend is Your Friend or Not…ie. recognizing the type of environment that favors your approach : computer models which look at market maker price arbitrage approach normally relies on high volume with relatively low volatility situations in order for it to work…this means this model won’t work when the market is trending. This approach is actually similar to how I trade, but I have two computer models…one is useful when trending, while the other isn’t and vice versa. The modelsapply a totally different methodology. Also some approaches are best used with certain instruments. eg. based on my own studies, from a longer term perspective the Swiss Franc trends actually quite well, but other markets, eg. ES (S&P500) or Euro doesn’t usually trend as smooth / well from a longer term perspective

e. Ability to know when you are wrong & revise your game plan - which is more about both having a plan and psychology to deal with issues that may or may not be anticipated

Thus, at least from my own view, I think learning any indicator you typically get on your platform is something you should have some basic knowledge on, but if learning indicators actually had an edge in trading, everyone would be millionaires. Also, if there’s a trading school out there, perhaps you can learn something, but in my view, using an analogy if I want to learn poker (or if you prefer…learn law, medicine, etc.), I’ll go to school, but that doesn’t make me a professional poker player (lawyer, doctor, etc) …for that I really need to either work under a real professional or at least be informally coached and try to replicate a system with an edge (and all of the above) in a real environment in a consistent way.

In any case, I can say that at least from what I’ve seen large tier financial institutions, hedge funds, big whale traders…most don’t really use 99% of the indicators nor do many use them as a primary way to trade. The rationale is simple…there’s virtually no hard research/evidence that can quantify and demonstrate an actual consistent edge with an indicator or set of indicators. If they use indicators it’s typically along with extensive research to indicate which days have a higher probability of it working, etc.

So for beginners starting out, perhaps it would be good to start by learning from babypips first, and though I am sure there will not be many takers…try to understand price action/reaction based on dow theory and wyckoff (use a free resource), then perhaps take into considerations the above points if wishing to learn someone else’s ‘system’ before making it your own.

Hope some of this helps.

Happy Trading

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See, that’s where you are going wrong, The third moon in Saturn is way too out there, just stick to Blue moons, I promise by next decade you will make 10 times as much profit.

But seriously, simpler the better, it’s de facto!

the simpler the system, the less prone to make a mistake.

You guys make this way to hard just email me I will sell you the gravity indicator for a small sum of a million or 2 depending on what day it is. Its all you will ever need. When gravity is strong markets go down when gravity is not strong markets go up. Simple as that.

Now you tell me, no wonder my esoteric indicator doesn’t work!

In my humble opinion you answered your question when asking your question! To be exact : "But short of having a personnel coach or mentor are these courses valid or [B]are these methods something you just pickup along the way while learning your own style of trading[/B]."
YES, these are just pieces of the puzzle that is, actually will become, YOUR trading method!
I never paid for a course, only did the various ‘schools’ of trading available free of charge on the web, there are quite a few, and literally read thousands of pages and watched hundreds of videos from different sites, blogs, forums, etc. After one year of research, I’m also a newbie, I finally began to understand the basics of what will become my method, which, btw, it has only the most basic concepts of trading: support/resistance, psychological price levels, different TFs analysis, Fibonacci levels and the Momentum indicator, which I’m not yet 100% convinced I’ll use. Like I said, it’s still a work in progress, but so far it seems to work more often than not.
So, while I’m not an advocate for ‘not paying’ (I will donate/buy something to/from the sites that really helped me, like babypips, when I’ll start winning), maybe you’re the type that understands better from structured paid lessons or courses, or maybe you feel they have more ‘value’ if they’re not free, I only say DON’T EXPECT MIRACLES, and more important DON’T RISK YOUR HARD EARNED MONEY ON SOMETHING YOU DON’T FULLY UNDERSTAND!!
I remember reading a post on babypips about a guy that was complaining about buying an EA that blew 1/4 of his 30 years savings in a few hours… no comments needed, just [B]DON’T DO IT!!![/B]
Another thing is: start with a demo account, play with it, but don’t take ages until going live, even if you lose at first (which you will). You’ll see that they have nothing in common. Winning or losing $100.000 ‘play’ money is ok, relatively no feelings involved, however when dealing with real money you’ll hit the ‘panic button’ as soon as the first trade starts going south $1.

Hope it helps.