Hi all!
I have had extended discussions with my friends on whether retail Forex trading done by individuals like us is like playing chess (skill) vs. playing slots (luck).
Where would you put Forex trading a scale from 1 (slots) to 10 (chess)? Why?
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Forex Is Forex ,You either got what it takes to be a trader or you don’t.
you could be the most skilled mathematician and know everything about the economy still dosent mean you will be successful in trading, same goes for luck you can be the luckiest person in the world and still not be profitable,
Mostly an understanding of price action developed over time. I gained this understanding by meticulously building a strategy via backtesting for 3 years. 9000 hours of this is what it took for me. If you think you have this kind of patience and ambition then trading is for you.
Yes you have to be lucky in forex trading but even the luck has to get some push, so the skill is the base of your success and there is little part of luck too, so be skillful and luck will follow.
When you get an opportunity to watch an experienced and skilled trader trading. After he opens and closes another profitable trade. If you ask him: how are you doing it? How did you know that you have to open your trade exactly here?
In many cases, you will hear an answer like this one: “oh… probably i’m just lucky” :54:
p.s.: I voted - 10.
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You need to develop skills, to put you in the draw to get lucky. Comprehensive trade method, a money management plan that protects your capital while building it and the patience and discipline to execute your trading method, money management plan consistently.
Off topic: ‘making’ it when you start with a $100 account, for example, is not the same as someone starting with a $250,000 account… One trader’s glory is another’s misery; one trader’s success by skill is another’s success by luck…
Helping one’s luck with skill is as important as helping one’s skill with luck… But a bad losing streak won’t deter a seasoned trader as much as a newbie…
I used to believe I WILL make ENOUGH money WHEN I have the skill. After 1.5year of full-time trading as a newbie, I now believe I MAY make SOME money SOMETIMES because of a mix of skill & LUCK. Forex now feels like playing slot for me, as so far my strategy is simily beaten by the market most of the time. However, I still believe that my skills can grow and one day Forex can indeed feel a bit like playing chess, which is much more interesting than pure gambling. What I will change now is trading on the side line rather than full time.
It’s a metric that is extremely difficult to measure in reality.
Good luck is just a circumstance that benefited you where you did not have control over how it played out. It’s purely your interpretation of an event. Same with bad luck.
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The reality is that ‘we’ never have control over the market, and it’s important to realise that this is a business of probabilities.
This is one reason why it’s important to have a large enough sample size of trades to eliminate ‘luck’, thus working from statistics.
I would say its more complex then chess and more simple to play with only one rule just win.
In chess game is over when you checkmate or stalemate , but in forex you cannot end game it just continues and you can never win over market , you need to adjust your self with it.
I like to rely on the Forex Trading with the help of skills, without skills even luck won’t work in Forex.
I think it’s somewhere between 7 and 8. You need a lot of skill and knowledge to be successful, and just a little bit of luck so you don’t get caught in random spike and whipsaw events. Still, luck is not something a trader should or can rely on.
Yes, I think there is a mixture - a certain amount of skill is required to deal with the fact that some of it is down to luck. We cannot control what sort of a market we are facing asnt there is a certain amount of being in the right place at the right time.
In a coin flip, probability of a coin turning up head or tail is 50%.
Keyword here is “probability”.
Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur.
Another keyword here is “measure”.
Measure is define as ascertaining the size, amount, or degree of (something) by using an instrument or device marked in standard units.
In Forex, trader attempt to project a future price using one or many metrics.
End of the day, the truth is that we trader are actually trying to be a fortune teller.
Henceforth, comes the question, is the future forcastable?
The sad answer is “NO”. However, traders are self motivated by their desire for the money to succeed.
We trader have choosen to place ourself in our current path of playing the GUESSING game.
Trader who have got the future right more times than wrong are skillful.
They are people who can make clever guesses using some form of metrics.
Traders who have gotten the future wrong more times than right but still make money end of the day are LUCKY.
They must have manipulated the lot sizing and have gotten it right when they traded a huge amount.
Then there are traders who got it right more times than wrong but still loses money.
They must have traded a huge amount when they are wrong.
So, skill can be define as
- ability to make clever guesses using certain metrics,
- ability to follow good money management rules to mitigate risk.
Luck can be define as
- making money when you are wrong
- losing money when you are right
Now this is a confusing situation. Is forex more skill or luck?
I think it is a paradoxical situation. And relative question.
It seems that forex can be EITHER more skill or more luck for different individuals.
Therefore i conclude that whether forex is more skill or luck depends on individual perception on the matter.
It depends on their belief. My personal take is that if you are making money, Forex is both skill 100% and luck 100%.
And if you are losing money, Forex is both skill 0% and luck 0%. It can only be 0% or 100%, there is no in between.
Its a bit of both, but you move the odds to your favour by watching and learning… (I voted 8)
Perfect example… Market Direction… I was clueless when I started… even resorted to rolling dice to chose the direction I was going to trade… I now get this correct approx. 91% when I trade…
HOW… Use a Heikin Hashi Candle Indicator or Chart… set to the 4h/8h/12h time frame… (1h absolute minimum) Just checked and it also works on the 5min TF as well although I wouldn’t recommend.
Estimate the next candle (market direction) by copying the preceding candle’s colour/direction and mark down 1 for each correct direction and 0 for every incorrect colour/direction ie: change. Repeat for 20, 30, 40 candles and then calculate the percentage of 0 to 1’s (correct / incorrect)…
That’s nearly 50% of the guessing game out of the way… Check!
Yeah, we need both skill and luck to survive, but to rely on the totally on the Luck would be a very dangerous decision.
I voted (10)
I’ve been trading over 11 years, I have a high probability success rate % but my trading plan is not simple. it is very complicated.
It took alot of effort on my part to get here, 5 hours + a day studying these markets.
It is alot like chess on my level, with little room for error.
I disagree with most of the posts on this site, but I’ll still come here to see what people think.
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You need to have both, skill and luck in Forex. As the market is unpredictable, thus it will be over luck to get us that situations.
The whole point of trading is being able to predict the market in order to profit. If a person is relying on luck they’re not trading, they’re gambling, and gamblers generally can’t profit over a long period of time.