Got your point easily. Best of luck and but don’t on luck 
That may be chocolate on the baby’s legs now, but later…
not true even if you believe it, the market moves as a result of price imbalances that are caused by a higher vol of longs than shorts, in which case price moves up, same thing for shorts when the vol or short orders way exceeds the buys then price goes down, there is no luck in this, the market moves exactly according to the pending orders.
If you imagine that luck has anything to do with how price moves, thats in error, forex is an auction market and pending orders are filled when price is going down, as price moves down the pending orders to buy are taken out like the top pancake from a stack of pancakes. you have to take the one on the top, all orders are arranged according to price and filled according to price levels.
I tried to get lucky breaks during my first 5 years of trading, I never got even ONE! HEH, even now I cant catch a lucky break! if you guess right, on the direction and hold your trade, that has nothing to do with luck, as luck is not what drives price its pending orders!
think of pending orders as Bill Williams does, the pending orders are the riverbed (controls where price CAN go) and market orders are the river! Only a fool enters an order at market.
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Surely guessing right is luck? I realise it isn’t luck that moves prices, but we traders do not know in advance which way it will go, so we use our skill and whatever tools we choose to assist us, and guess.
The skill and our knowledge increases our chances of being right and limits the consequences of being wrong.
I had a Euro trade on Jan 15th, 2015. No-one knew the Swiss were about to depeg from the Euro, but they did. I was on the right side of my trade, shorting the Euro, and made a huge amount of pips. That was pure luck, skill played little or no part. I invite you to persuade me otherwise
no need to, as Webster lost his mind with: a : a force that brings good fortune or adversity Luck was a big factor in the outcome.
b : the events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual The loser muttered something about bad luck.
the real definition of luck is that which happens “by chance”, luck is not a force thats a lie, humans label things as luck when they cannot or will not examine and identify the underlying causes of an action. And they tend to zero in on reactions and mistake them for the motivating action. It is a vicious circle, cause and effect cannot be separated, and even if we ignore the one and focus on the other, does not negate the ignored action. and action can be a reaction, and any reaction can be an action, and round and round we go.
Let not get silly, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction, we live in a cause and effect world, action - reaction, and no matter what you label or tag (associate) something as, does not change what it is!
the funny thing is this! the more I TRADE live and the more practice trading I do (in Demo) the LUCKIER I GET! LOL
funny how that works 
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Yeah, I’d heard you were in at that time - Congratulations ! That s one of the "Lucky breaks I was speakig of and there were plenty of others for whom the same event was a “Bad Beat”.
It was one of the “Black Swan events” to which Taleb refers.
I have little problem accepting the basis of @rrram2 ’ s statement about the movements, but we as ‘Retail’ do not have access to the information the “Market movers” do, so we have to try to construct directionality from experience, patterns and other resources.
For ‘Retail’ there will always be “an element of luck”.
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Using @rrram2 methodology… you can always trade the Market Sentiment (displayed in most Platforms). If 70% are on the Sell side of a pair you could safely assume that the’ll be a mix of at Market and Pending orders in that figure…
The real issue is knowing whether that percentage is factual or displayed for the _shee_p to follow…
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I take the attitude that the “sentiment” refers to ‘Retail’ - that is itself is a guide imo !
Gladly
ask yourself this
WHY WERE YOU ON THAT SIDE OF THE TRADE ?
i mean you basically answered it here
mate, when we GUESS it is based on our life experiences and what we believe is BEST as a result.
if you get to understand yourself better you willl realize your brain did that for a reason, it was not luck, it was calculated
if it wasn’t you wouldn’t have pressed the trade button because you would have been unsure.
we don’t randomnly guess
you just CAN’T EXPLAIN IT AND THEREFORE YOU JUSTIFY IT BY CALLING IT LUCK
because you can’t justify it any other way
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I would also want to know if the percentages were of traders or of value.
If 70% of traders were going long, I’d be inclined to go short, but if 70% of the money was long, I’d go long as well
Yes, I can.
Under normal circumstances I would have expected to gain a small number of pips.
It was pure luck that unforseen circumstances meant that I made several hundred times the profit that skill and judgment had led me to expect.
It was chance that I was in the right trade at the right time
Namaste
@eddieb
hi mate, first of all , before we go any further let me just say a few things ok
-
Firslty , when these conversations start and people are challenged, People have a tendency to take this personally and get offended. Just understand this is not my intention
-
Secondly , Your other comment said.[quote=“Martin_K, post:154, topic:68031”]
I invite you to persuade me otherwise
[/quote]
Now even though i responded, i should say this…
my intention was not to PERSUADE you, My intention was to offer you an idea
You see, trying to persuade someone as to whether luck exists or not is like trying to persuade someone whether god exists or not… YOU ARE CHALLENGING A PERSON’S CORE BELIEF,
and regardless of whether you are right or wrong, a person will not give in and admit to it , and thats’ fine
and it’s just easier to respect each other’s belief’s
- but , if you want to hear it… this is just an idea for you to consider
so now let me answer this… with all that being said
this part
so… you are then saying THESE WERE NOT NORMAL Circumstances .
ok… Fair enough
i would then post this question
WHAT MADE THEM ABNORMAL ?
SO… Why just jump to the conclusion of PURE LUCK, why is not just LUCK, why is it PURE LUCK
now i said
LET’S RECAP THIS…
You can’t explain it and therefore you justify it by calling it luck
and then what did you do but called it PURE LUCK
then this…
ok.
so let’s entertain this idea of LUCK for a second
and i imagine we can then agree that it doesn’t happen often… right
so… Are you then saying that MOST OF THE TIME YOU ARE NOT IN THE RIGHT PLACE AT THE RIGHT TIME ?
can you see how your theory of luck falls over very easily ?
What you believe is…
IT WAS LUCK THAT YOU HAD A LARGE PROFIT BECAUSE CHANCE PUT YOU IN THE RIGHT PLACE AT THE RIGHT TIME
hence, you didn’t plan it and something that YOU CANNOT EXPLAIN happened anyway.
you fail to be able to explain why… so YOU CALL IT PURE LUCK
that’s what i said before
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None taken, lifes too short.
That was a reply to rrram2, but no problem in you responding
Really? You don’t know what happened that day, that amazes me.
No, of course not, but as ive already said, I was extremely lucky to be in that trade, in that direction, at that time. I didn’t plan to make hundreds of pips, just a few, and at any other time that same day I wouldn’t have.
On a different matter, and I hope you don’t take offence, can you cut out the capitals please. I know you’ve said before that you use them to make your “important” points clear for newbies, but I’m not a newbie and find they turn me off reading your posts.
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Excellent, Just thought i’d check so i didn’t offend you in some way.
sorry , my bad[quote=“eddieb, post:158, topic:68031”]
Really? You don’t know what happened that day, that amazes me.
[/quote]
and this is MY POINT EXACTLY… EXACTLY
i don’t really need to know , do i ?
i just need to understand that it was some Amazing, Fantastic, 1 in a billion kind of thing.
so… Ok, i get that
and i still say it’s not luck
but here’s another thing for you to consider
I have found over the years of observing people that when you take say these 3 scenario’s
Scenario 1 - something happens , its like a 1 in 1,000 chance
Scenarios 2 - something happens it’s like a 1 in a Million
Scenario 3 - something happens it’s like a 1 in a Billion
Now… you will find the follow things to be true
Scenario 1 will have the least emotion
Scenario 2 will have more emotion
Scenario 3 will have the most emotion
1 will have confusion
2 will have more
3 will leave a person utterly confused
the person will believe that , in scenario 1 THEY WERE LUCKY
in Scenario 2 THEY WERE VERY LUCKY
in Scenario 3 THEY WERE EXTREMELY LUCKY
IT SEEMS TO BE A PATTERN THAT THE MORE INEXPLICABLE IT IS , THE MORE LUCKY YOU ARE AND THE MORE EMOTION THAT IS INVOLVED
Now, i’ll tell you something else about how the brain works (go and Research THE LYMBIC SYSTEM) of your brain.
simply stated, you have a logic part of your brain that is responsible for rational thought and problem solving
then you have your lymbic system which covers your logc part of your brain
YOUR LYMBIC SYSTEM is your Emotional part
Now IT IS A FACT that when you get overcome by emotions, SIGNAL THAT ENTER YOUR BRAIN GO TO THE LYMBIC SYSTEM FOR PROCESSING
IF THE LEVEL OF EMOTION IS REALLY HIGH THE SIGNALS CANNOT PASS TO THE LOGIC PART OF YOUR BRAIN FOR LOGICAL PROCESSING
SO… DID YOU GET THAT
THEY CANNOT PASS TO THE LYMBIC SYSTEM FOR LOGICAL PROCESSING
Meaning… YOU DO NOT THINK… YOU FEEL
so… More emotion = Less Logical Thought THAT’S A PSYCHOLOGICAL FACT
something to think about huh
Exactly, of course not
thus proving that your first statement was not true, but you thought it was.
and No you were not lucky to be IN THAT TRADE, IN THAT DIRECTION.
it’s a decision that you made, Give yourself credit mate, where credit is due… seriously
YOUR BRAIN MAKES DECISIONS THAT , MOST OF THE TIME YOU HAVE NO BLOODY IDEA HOW COMPLEX AND QUICK THEY ARE AND YOU BARELY FEEL THEM AT TIMES
This was one of those things… simply stated, YOUR BRAIN PUT IT TOGETHER ok
Listen…
when i was young … ONCE… My brain put together how to solve a rubiks cube
TO SAY I WAS SHOCKED IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT
these days i can do a cube in around a minute or so , and it doesn’t even phase me
now this…
i know … and what does this teach us
You put yourself in a position, YOUR BRAIN WORKED IT OUT
Number of pips are not important
POSITION IS IMPORTANT, if you are in a bad position, You are stuffed whichever way you look at it
TRUST ME MATE… YOUR BRAIN PUT IT TOGETHER AND THEN IT MADE THE DECISION TO HIT THE TRADE BUTTON.
You just don’t realize it, that’s all
sorry… i’ll try
that’s sort of a habit, i dod it when i emphasize something. it’s not yelling ok
i’ll try to minimize it… sorry
Oh… i don’t just do it to newbies… No No No
i do it with everyone
but ok, i’ll keep an eye on it… ok
no offense taken, don’t worry
It was all of that - the SNB removed their long standing peg on CHF and boom - not only did many traders find themselves with serious negative balances, but so too some bookies who were trading their punters.
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If my memory serves me right, fxcm lost $300m that day and other brokers, including Alpari UK (sponsors of Premier League team West Ham), went bust completely.
We had members on here who lost everything they had in a matter of minutes as prices flew miles past Stop points due to complete lack of Euro buyers
Yep I remember that, had an account with Alpari at the time that I wasn’t actively using, withdrew all my money a week before the incident because I needed it for something else, just about missed the circus completely by accident.
Aye I was lucky as well, was in a small CHF trade, would have mounted to a huge loss.
I applied a time stop - the trade was going nowhere due to the peg.
@eddieb… Pepperstone’s Meter refers to Clients (Traders) with Open Positions…so no Pending orders it would seem…Traders not Value… Posted 15th (4.36am GMT)
Sentiment appears to match the (1H - 200MA) Chart’s overall sentiment…
See where this pair goes in 24 hours…That will tell the story…
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