Slingshot Strategy revisited

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
21

I’ve just started 2nd test of GBPUSD Weekly Slingshot with new filters to reduce losses.

  1. I will only take one entry per week. If stopped out then that’s it for the week. Wait for new setup bar.
  2. If the open bar’s range equals or exceeds the setup bar’s range before entry, then the setup bar becomes invalid.

So far I’ve done 3 years back testing.
The results so far:
2001 - 72% profit - Down by 3% from 1st test.
2002 - 16.5% Loss - Up 2% - Slingshot GBPUSD 2001 & 2002 - 2nd test - 56% total profit - YouTube
2003 - 25% Profit - Up 35.5% - Slingshot GBPUSD 2003 - 2nd test - 24.5% Profit - YouTube

So far profit is up by 34.5% than 1st test.
Still early days to draw any conclusion.

22

I like your approach to trading and testing. You’re very thorough.

23

Thanks Borden.

24

Mon 10 Mar 2014
Live Account:

Balance $335
Floating profit $330
Closed for another profit this week. Plenty of setups this week in all the pairs - Slingshot live account update 10 Mar 2014 - YouTube

25

2004 - 180% Profit - up 7% - Slingshot GBPUSD 2004 2nd test 180% Profit - YouTube

Overall up by 41.5% end 2004

26

2005 - 123% Loss - up by 39% - Slingshot GBPUSD 2005 2nd test 123% Loss - YouTube

Overall up by 80.5% by end 2005

27

2006 - 74% Profit - down by 19% - Slingshot GBPUSD 2006 2nd test 74% Profit - YouTube

Overall up by 61.5% by end 2006

28

2007 - 7% Profit - down by 78% - Slingshot GBPUSD 2007 2nd test 7% Profit - YouTube

Overall down by 16.5% by end of 2007

This was a massive hit this year as the new filters kept me out of 3 big winners. Still another 5 years to do before any final conclusion can be drawn.

This is why its so important to back test a minimum of 10 years to see how robust any rules can be. Think about the hoover quality control test. It needs to take a bashing & still survive in the long run before starting mass production. Its no different to a trading strategy.

29

[B]UPDATE:Tue 11 mar 2014[/B] - 20 20 Trend Strategy.

So far im not happy with the results. I have back tested more data than I’ve uploaded to you tube & noticed that this does not help with diversifying the slingshot strategy. T

I have to keep with my aim to diversify the slingshot strategy.

What I have come up with is a way to trade Supply & Demand with mechanical rules which I am currently starting to back test this week. So far the results are promising.

Now I’ve been trading supply & demand for many years I would like to be the person responsible for creating the supply & demand as opposed to waiting for the retracement into previous supply or demand levels (which doesn’t happen most of the time…very frustrating to say the least) to buy or sell.

Basically I have simplified a price driven strategy into 3 steps:

  1. Higher time frame bias (buys/sells)
  2. Entry criteria (that never misses big trend/winners)
  3. Trade management that lets price (the market) tell me when to take profits & losses.

This is the most Simple Mechanical approach I have come up with for such a complicated multiple time frame strategy. I will post results with back tested video’s in the near future. I do not want to get a head of my self but I do feel I’ve had a break through for diversifying the Slingshot strategy.

Thanks again for those who are following & supporting my efforts. Im sure we will all be rewarded in the near future.

Safe trading
Tyrone

30

Hi fellow traders

I know this is the slingshot journal, but I want to post the rules & journal of my Mechanical Supply & Demand strategy on this thread. The reason is to keep this only to those who are following my work & because this may also be part of my overall portfolio along side the slingshot strategy. Again this is to diversify my portfolio & to smooth my yearly profits. I can then trade my large savings account using both of these strategies with 100% confidence & belief.
[B]This is my one & only goal.[/B]
All other goals will naturally fall into place.

This Mechanical strategy has nothing to do with actually analysing supply & demand levels, but it does however allow me to be part of the creation of the supply & demand levels which is where the big boys are buying/selling. In a nutshell, I ride all trends with the HTF bias without fail. Unfortunately there will be losses, but that’s part of trading & can not be avoided. So far the results are promising especially when compared next to the slingshot data.
As an example:
2005 slingshot produced 162% Loss.
2005 Mechanical S & D produced 76% profit. This was why I wanted to diversify strategies.

This now means my average yearly profit is up overall till end 2005.
I have plenty more work to do before conclusive results can posted & should take me another week to complete.

[B]Right…the rules are very simple:[/B]

1 - HTF (Monthly chart) - Plot a 20EMA. This is your buy/sell line. If price has closed above, only look for longs. If price has close below, only look for shorts.

2 - Entry (Daily chart) - If going long, the daily bars must break previous day/s low to become a setup bar. Entry order is 5 pips above closed setup bar. Stop is 20 pips below setup bar or recent swing low. Adjust order at every new setup bar until entry is initiated.
This is reversed for shorts. The only difference is stop will be 23 pips above setup bar.

3 - Trade management (Weekly chart) - Once entry is initiated, there is nothing to do until either you get stopped out or the weekly bar closes. Once the weekly bar/s is closed you will trail stop 10 pips below & continue trailing every future closed Weekly bar until stopped out (whether profit or loss). Price will tell you when to get out. For shorts stop will be 13 pips above Weekly closed bar.

There is nothing else to add or take away. [B]KISS - keep it simple stupid[/B].

[B]My back testing journal:[/B]
All percentage based on 1 lot size to keep scientific & in line with the Slingshot results.

Forex tester 2 starting balance $10000
2003 - Profit 132% Balance $16600 - Mechanical supply & demand strategy GBPUSD 2003 132% profit - YouTube
2004 - profit 64% Balance $19800 - Mechanical supply & demand strategy GBPUSD 2004 64% profit - YouTube
2005 - profit 76% Balance $23600 - Mechanical supply & demand strategy GBPUSD 2005 76% profit - YouTube

[B]Note: I have a small live account to forward test my Mechanical S & D Strategy.[/B]
I will post both the LIVE Slingshot & Mech S & D trading account updates to this thread. All youtube video links for both strategies will be posted on this journal too.

Safe trading all

31

Tyrone,

Did the YouTube video load all the way? When I click on it, it brings me to a page that says the video is being processed.

thanks,

32

Hi Brutus2.
I didn’t expect someone to read my post so soon. Its fully uploaded now.

Kind regards
Tyrone

33

[QUOTE=“Tyrone Archer;611500”] Hi Brutus2. I didn’t expect someone to read my post so soon. Its fully uploaded now. Kind regards Tyrone[/QUOTE]

Nice video. Interested in the strategy. Please continue to post updates n let us know how live accounts r doing.

Thanks

34

Will do my friend.

35

I was trying to learn Alfonso’s material cause I like price action approach but, as an engineer, I’m not confident with too much subjectivity exactely as you.
Love your system, especially the S&D mechanical cause of the smoothing of the equity curve.

Will follow and contribute with great interest.

36

Hi lucariga.
Thanks for comment. As an engineer, you know the importance of being mechanical. Im not ready to play big until there is no subjectivity in my trading. I personally know I have to be 100% mechanical to trade live. The only way is years of statistics with back testing data. I then have belief in my strategy. Glad to see your on board with the idea. Looking forward to your contributions.

Safe trading
Tyrone

37

Thur 13 Mar 2014

Two more back test’s of the Mech S & D Strategy plus a quick look at both my live accounts. One for the Slingshot. Second for the Mech S & D.

Previous data:
Forex tester 2 starting balance $10000
2003 - Profit 132% Balance $16600
2004 - profit 64% Balance $19800
2005 - profit 76% Balance $23600

New Data:
2006 - Loss 12% Balance $23000 - I made a mistake on the youtube video saying it was only 6% Loss. It would be 12% Loss based on 1 lot size. Link - Mechanical supply & demand strategy GBPUSD 2006 6% Loss - YouTube
2007 - Profit 38% Balance $24900 - I made a mistake on the youtube video saying it was 19% Profit. It would be 38% Profit based on 1 lot size. Link - Mechanical supply & demand strategy GBPUSD 2007 19% Profit - YouTube

Good results so far. More to do yet.

Tyrone

38

Two more years of data.

2008 - Profit 64% Balance $28100 - Important - Mechanical supply & demand strategy GBPUSD 2008 64% Profit - YouTube
2009 - Loss 96% Balance $ 23300 - Mechanical supply & demand strategy GBPUSD 2009 96% Loss - YouTube

Four more years to test but looking strong so far for this strategy.

Compare above data with the slingshot data so far:

SlingShot
2001 - 75% Profit
2002 - 18.25% Loss
2003 - 10.5% Loss
2004 - 173% Profit
2005 - 162% Loss
2006 - 93% Profit
2007 - 85% Profit
2008 - 66% Loss
2009 - 171% Profit
2010 - 51% Loss
2011 - 78% Loss
2012 - 49% Loss
2013 - 44% Win - END OF DATA - 31 oct 2013.

Mech S & D
2003 - Profit 132%Balance $16600
2004 - profit 64% Balance $19800
2005 - profit 76% Balance $23600
2006 - Loss 12% Balance $23000
2007 - Profit 38% Balance $24900
2008 - Profit 64% Balance $28100
2009 - Loss 96% Balance $23300

39

Mon 17 Mar 2014 - Slingshot & Mech S & D Live account update.

[B]Slingshot:[/B]
Balance $304
Floating profit $ 297
Drawdowns kicked in last week.

[B]Mech S & D:[/B] - Started from £100 last week.
Balance £77
Floating Proft £111
Video link - Slingshot live account update 17 Mar 2014 - YouTube

40

2010 - Loss 214% This is much to high a loss especially when im looking to diversify the sling shot.Mechanical supply & demand strategy GBPUSD 2010 214% Loss - YouTube
2011 - Wiped the account out. This has been similar to all trend following strategies I have back tested in the past, but I will have to cross check different pairs for these two loosing years. Mechanical supply & demand strategy GBPUSD 2011 Wiped account out - YouTube

My general thoughts are that this account would have been wiped out with an average 10% risk, compared to the Slingshot strategy which proved profitable on the long run.
I will spend more time in developing this Mech S & D strategy then retest theses loosing years first before starting from 2003. I have a few ideas to improve the Bias when markets are ranging or extremely volatile. Again KISS is my aim.