Slingshot Strategy revisited

Hi traders. Welcome to my channel - YouTube

[B]I have updated post to clarify the Slingshot strategy & filters I use.[/B]

I have only recently found out about the Slingshot strategy on youtube. Please watch this video first before reading my rules/filters I’ve added to this strategy - Forex Trading - SlingShot 30M 100% Mechanical Scalping Forex System Part 1 - YouTube. After some research I found a thread on Babypips & also forex factory which eventually died of death. For some reason I was intrigued by this strategy because of its mechanical simplicity & contrarian approach to trading the markets. Now we all know that around 95% of traders loose money give or take a few per cent & most of these follow the trend. Well isn’t that what you’ve all been taught “The trend is your friend”. So why are the loss percentage’s so high? Its got to be something to do with the crowd of novice traders falling into the same trap. Now I wont go into detail about this but what I want is to find a way to trade the markets that does not follow the crowd (hence “Contrarian”), that has no emotional control & is 100% mechanical.This doesn’t mean counter trend either, but something different to what everyone else uses & more importantly…Believes in.

[B]Lets talk briefly about belief.[/B]

For Me, belief is the most important trait to successfully following your strategy & becoming a professional trader. Without belief you wall fall at the first sign of a drawdown. So how do we really believe in our strategies, or someone else’s for that matter?

[B]For me there is only two ways.[/B]

  1. [B]Faith[/B]…but that doesn’t seem to work, well not for long. I would say 95% of trader go by faith. Sounds familiar, ummm 95%.

  2. [B]Belief[/B]…by putting your strategy through a rigorous back test (or possibly a forward test) which could take years to know for sure) to see how robust it is over hundreds of trades over many years of data proving that following the rules of your strategy through wins & losses builds your account up over time. Two step forward, one step backwards. I call this the Hoover test. Think about it…

I’ve personally tried forward testing but I do believe this also comes into the category of ‘Faith’ too.

So the only way to know for sure if a strategy is profitable is to make a scientific journal of my live account & also to record all back testing data so I can see if this is consistently profitable over time. This will take time & effort. Once the data has been recorded & proven to be profitable, I can then have the belief to follow my rules. I will also have plenty of recorded data to cross reference any new rule’s or filter’s I may add, before using them live.

So far I’ve recorded some initial back testing using Daily, Weekly & Monthly bars to see if there is an Edge to this strategy. So far the answer is YES. Even though this strategy is extremely simple & originaly used for scalping using a 30 min time frame, many have added rules & tinkered with the strategy but with no back tested data for credibility. I saw potential in the original Slingshot & wanted to add my own rule’s/filter’s to increase the edge.
The rule’s added so far are:

1/ I only take setup bars that close within the 40% of the top/bottom of the bar/candle. Any close within the 40 to 60% will be a void setup bar.

2/ If price opens & moves to the opposite high/low of setup bar or breaks the opposite high/low of the setup bar before valid entry has initiated, then that bar is invalid.

There are two trade management’s that im currently back testing:

1/ Exit only where the entry candle closes. (Original)

2/ Use trade management which again is explained on one of my video’s. Slingshot Live account 14 FEB 2014 - YouTube

So far there does not seem to be a great deal between either but I have plenty more back testing to complete before coming to a final conclusions. The main thing is both seem to be profitable.

Currently I am trading my live account - using original exit (close of entry bar).
I did use trade management for a week on my live account but I could not get to my charts due to work so have now gone back to original exit to keep my trading 100% mechanical.

As for back tested data:

I done an initial back test on the weekly bars Slingshot GBPUSD 2001 to 2002 Weekly bar back test - Trade management applied - 69 5% profit - YouTube to see how well this strategy performs over the long period & to my excitement it worked very well.

I dont believe in trying to filter out all losses as this is part of the game, but I do intend on maybe tweaking to squeeze a better overal yearly profit, but that will come in time with experimenting & plenty of cross reference back testing.

Im currently live trading all the majors & four cross pairs, a total of eleven pairs, across Weekly & Monthly time frames. This has enabled me to take the full advantage of this incredible & simple strategy by smoothing my overal profit/loss without the human emotion or ego taking control. I get plenty of trades to satisfy my thirst of trading & also allows me to continue my full time job.

Please feel free to contribute or ask any questions.


Safe trading.

Due to my job, its been difficult to keep track of the daily bars so I will only trade weekly & monthly bars as of now (swing only). The live account is up this week by a few pips but nothing certain until Sunday night candle close.
I shall continue recording back test video’s & uploading them to my youtube channel for proof & data and also to use for cross checking results if I choose to add or alter any rule. That’s it for this week. Safe trading.

End of week 15th feb 2014.

Balance $215
Floating profit $262
Slingshot Live account 14 FEB 2014 - YouTube

I have added in a trade management rule to this strategy which will get back tested next week and then cross checked against the same period without the rule. The rule is in place on my live account to lock in profit on major moves.
I have made a video update of my live account to explain in detail the new rule which is uploaded on my youtube channel.
I will not post rules here as this is just my journal.
I shall post another update Sunday open/Monday morning on potential set ups next week. A video will also be uploaded to my youtube channel showing set ups.
Have a good weekend

1 Like

Start of week 17th Feb
Closed all weekly trades
Monthly trades on going
Looking for this weekly set ups
Balance $211
Floating profit $269

I have scanned for this weeks weekly bar set ups & have posted a video on youtube. Link Slingshot Live account 17 FEB 2014 - YouTube

Also I have finished GPBUSD 2001 to 2002 back test using multiple time frames (Daily, weekly & monthly bars) and also weekly bars individual test.
First test with trade management rule which produced 69.5% profit for 2001 to 2002 - Slingshot GBPUSD 2001 to 2002 Weekly bar back test - Trade management applied - 69 5% profit - YouTube
Second test without trade management which produced 75% profit for 2001 to 2002 - Slingshot GBPUSD 2001 to 2002 Weekly bar back test Without trade management 75% profit - YouTube

I have plenty more test to do on the Weekly for 2002 onwards as I need many years of data to find which yields most profit overall. These will be done during the week when I have more time. So far results are positive for this strategy.

Trade safe fellow traders.

Mid Week Update: Tuesday 18th 23:32

Just got in from a night out with friends & noticed the daily candle will close soon so I’ve updated my trade management & noticed my balance has had some profits taken from previous positions that were managed to lock in profit.

Balance $229
Floating profit $297

Two new order’s have been placed on the eurusd & the usdchf if they come back to break close of last weeks bar. I’ve already had a loss with these two pairs but the rules state I take another entry if price reaches the close of last weeks bar.

Here’s the link to my youtube channel with detailed analysis. P.S. I forgot to place the eurusd trade on the video but it is valid so I have placed it now. Slingshot live account update 18 feb 14 - YouTube

I also trade the weekly candles in a “keep it simple stupid” fashion. I’m subscribed to the thread, and will look into the strategy and your YouTube channel… Thanks for posting the thread, and best of luck.

I also have to check out forex tester 2

Hi abrsive.
So you are more of a swing/position trader too. Could I ask if your strategy is posted here on baby pips? If so is it 100% mechanical or are you more of a discretional trader? I love testing other mechanical strategies but unfortunately it takes hard work & lots of time. Nothing comes easy with trading. Obviously one project at a time.

As for forex tester 2. All I can say is its the best investment I’ve made so far. I will not trade anything live until I’ve back tested it over many years of data as I have with the SlingShot strategy. Forex tester 2 is very similar to mt4 so not too hard to grasp. I wish I bought this software many years ago but I suppose we all have to go through a similar process before we find what’s best for our personality & beliefs. I used to think forward testing was the way to go, but I was wrong big time, well for me anyway. Back testing has given me the belief & understanding I need to become a confident successful trader.
This is why I am sharing this info through this journal. Maybe other’s are experiencing what I have just been through & need new direction to make them consistently profitable. Maybe other successful traders could also provide some of there wisdom to this thread. All is welcome as we all have one goal…To be consistently profitable. The other goals will follow with ease.
Thanks for commenting

Wed 19th update:
Live account
Balance $229.08
Floating balance $302.54

Not much to do except adjusted a few stops using the trade management on winning pairs. Still waiting on eurusd, usdchf & cadchf for entries.

I’ve just done another two back test’s of the GBPUSD from 2002 to 2003 With & without trade management.

Without trade management I had a loss of 18.25% - Slingshot GBPUSD 2002 to 2003 Weekly bar back test - Without trade management - 18 - YouTube
With trade management I had a loss of 10.6% - Slingshot GBPUSD 2002 to 2003 Weekly bar back test With trade management 10 6% loss - YouTube

So over the two years from 2001 to 2003 the trade management has saved me 2.5% overall.
Much more back testing to be done before any conclusion can be drawn.

Thur 20 Feb

After stop outs in the eurusd & usdchf early this week, price has made a 2nd valid entry in these two pairs. Just following rules so no thought process or emotion involved.
Cadchf still not made entry.
Some more profits taken.
I will update live account balance after midnight.

Fri 21 Feb 02.00hrs
Balance $236
Floating profit $300

Just got in from work.
Adjusted all stops as per trade management to reduce risk on new entries & to lock in profits on runners.
Now I shall continue my back testing on the GBPUSD & upload my video’s to youtube.

Im amazed…

I have just completed GBPUSD back test for 2004 & what a result. This strategy without any trade management produced 173% for the year with just under 50% win rate.
Results so far without trade management:

2001 - 75% Profit - Slingshot GBPUSD 2001 Weekly bar back test - Without trade management - 75% profit - YouTube
2002 - 18.25% Loss - Slingshot GBPUSD 2002 Weekly bar back test - Without trade management - 18.25% loss - YouTube
2003 - 10.5% Loss - Slingshot GBPUSD 2003 Weekly bar back test Without trade management 10 5% loss - YouTube
2004 - 173% Profit - Slingshot GBPUSD 2004 Weekly bar back test - Without trade management - 173% profit - YouTube

This means that if over the years this strategy has an edge, then trading many pairs should smooth the yearly results out to a nice steady profit (Some pairs small losses other pairs larger wins). This is my overall aim & maybe, just maybe I have finally found a 100% mechanical strategy that can do this. Early days but so far my back testing research has only showed promising results for the SlingShot strategy on Higher time frames. All my testing will be uploaded to youtube & nothing hidden as im not trying to fool anyone especially myself.
Right I must continue to stay calm & focused so as not to be disappointed if this turns out to be another dead end. Personally I cant see that happening but we’ve all been in similar positions where we think we’ve found a profitable strategy that’s right for us as individuals, only turning out to fail in the long run. This looks good in the long run so far, so fingers crossed guys.

Monday 24 Feb 2014 - Analysis - Slingshot Live account weekly analysis 24 FEB 2014 - YouTube
Balance $269
Floating profit $301

I’ve just completed my weekly analysis & posted link above.
So far looking very good. Profit rising each week, but this is a long term strategy so sooner or later I will have some kind of drawdown. I am hoping that trading these 11 pairs should have a steady increase in profit every month, but only time will tell.
Right its time for 2005 back test on the GBPUSD. Video will be uploaded this week some time.

I’ve just completed GBPUSD 2005, 2006 & 2007 back test. Results are below with links to the video’s.

2005 - 162% Loss - Slingshot GBPUSD 2005 Weekly bar back test Without trade management 162% loss - YouTube
2006 - 93% Profit - Slingshot GBPUSD 2006 Weekly bar back test Without trade management 93% win - YouTube
2007 - 86% Profit - Slingshot GBPUSD 2007 Weekly bar back test Without trade management 86% win - YouTube

GBPUSD - Weekly bars - Without trade management.
2001 - 75% Profit
2002 - 18.25% Loss
2003 - 10.5% Loss
2004 - 173% Profit
2005 - 162% Loss
2006 - 93% Profit
2007 - 85% Profit

Overall so far over 7 years using only weekly bars - 235% Profit
Average per year - 33.5% profit

Having problems uploading to youtube but links will be available soon.

Note: On my back testing, I have been trading 1 lot size roughly $10 per pip, so my risk could range from 3% to 20%. On average risk is around 8% to 10%… I have now dropped this to 0.5 lot size to tolerate loosing streaks. I will double my results to coincide with the previous back test data to keep an accurate percentage journal.

I only risk around 1% to 5% (0.01 lot size) on my live account so therefore the above yearly profit should be divided between 4 to give a more realistic yearly profit percentage of 8%. I am trading 11 pairs on my live account so if on average I make 8% for one pair per year, then 11 pairs x 8% would be 88% average profit per year. Again this is an estimate but proof is slowly building through my back testing.This would explain why my live account is making profit each week even with plenty of loosing trades. Im diversifying my live account with 11 pairs & monthly bar trades, to smooth yearly win/loss percentage. This is unknown territory for me but I am pleased with the results up to now.

Update on back testing:

GBPUSD - Weekly bars - Without trade management.
2001 - 75% Profit
2002 - 18.25% Loss
2003 - 10.5% Loss
2004 - 173% Profit
2005 - 162% Loss
2006 - 93% Profit
2007 - 85% Profit
2008 - 66% Loss - Slingshot GBPUSD 2008 Weekly bar back test Without trade management 66% Loss - YouTube
2009 - 171% Profit - Slingshot GBPUSD 2009 Weekly bar back test Without trade management 171% profit - YouTube

Overall so far over 9 years using only weekly bars - 340% Profit
Average per year - 37.7% Profit

As you can see the yearly average is increasing.

Thursday 27 Feb 2014 - Mid week update - Slingshot live account update 27 feb 14 - YouTube
Live account:
Balance $264
Floating profit $313

Another GBPUSD back test complete:
2010 - 51% Loss - Slingshot GBPUSD 2010 Weekly bar back test Without trade management 51% Loss - YouTube

Friday 28 Feb 14 - End of month update
Live account: Slingshot live account end of month 28 feb 14 - YouTube
Balance $303
Floating profit $309

I’ve closed all monthly bar trades with a good profit. So far the live account has made just under 50% profit this month. Still early days as this is the first live test using 11 pairs & weekly/monthly trade setups together.
Next update Sunday 2nd March with video looking at new monthly potential setups & the week ahead setups.
Have a nice weekend.

Hi fellow traders. I’ve completed all GBPUSD weekly bar test’s without trade management. Conclusive results below.

BASED ON RISK BETWEEN 5% TO 25% AVERAGE. (This would not be a realistic amount to risk. This risk was to keep it scientific)

2001 - 75% Profit
2002 - 18.25% Loss
2003 - 10.5% Loss
2004 - 173% Profit
2005 - 162% Loss
2006 - 93% Profit
2007 - 85% Profit
2008 - 66% Loss
2009 - 171% Profit
2010 - 51% Loss
2011 - 78% Loss - Slingshot GBPUSD 2011 Weekly bar back test Without trade management 78% Loss - YouTube
2012 - 49% Loss - Slingshot GBPUSD 2012 Weekly bar back test Without trade management 49% Loss - YouTube
2013 - 44% Profit - END OF DATA - 31 oct 2013. Slingshot GBPUSD 2013 Weekly bar back test Without trade management 44% Win - YouTube


REALISTIC RISK OF 0.5% TO 2.5% (Above result divided between 10) PER TRADE WOULD RESULT IN:

This data is based on one pair.

Eleven pairs Average would be (1.3% x 11 pairs): 14.3% PER YEAR.


Next step: Re analyse all video data & look for possible tweaks to:-
Reduce loss size or reduce loosing trade ratio, without affecting winning trades (if at all possible).

Re test with new rule for recorded data to cross reference above data.

Brand new Month & Weekly live account analysis -
Slingshot live account analysis 3 Mar 2014 - YouTube

Live account balance $308

Mid week update: Slingshot live account update 4 Mar 2014 - YouTube
Live account:
Balance $308
Floating profit $326

Got 3 setups with entries on the weekly bars. So far floating profit is up but its only Tuesday so anything could happen by Sunday night close. Still waiting on monthly bar’s to give me some setups. Video link above goes into detail.

Im working on a trend trading strategy (20 20 Trend strategy) that I will be back testing on the GBPUSD from 2001 to 2013 to see if this can smooth out the Slingshot loosing years. If this strategy proves to be consistently profitable over the 13 years then this strategy will be added to my Live account to diversify my portfolio of 11 currency pairs. My aim to build consistent profits every year whilst following 100% mechanical rules. No exceptions.
I will post the rules to the “20 20 trend strategy” once im satisfied its consistently profitable. Again simplicity is key to my personal trading without emotional interference. Proof is in the pudding & the pudding is the hard work of back testing.

I shall update the live account on Sunday eve/Monday morning whilst analysing new setups. Video link will be uploaded soon after.

Wed 5 mar 2014

NZDUSD has now broken last Weeks high & last Months high so I have 2 setups waiting to short if price drops to relevant sell stop orders.
Still 3 trades running as per video above.
Floating profit $323