Thanks for commenting. The Slingshot is a slow long term strategy which so far through back testing proves to be long term profitable, however there are those drawdown years which is why I am trading 11 pairs across 2 time frames so as to diversify. The live account is a forward test of this idea. Who knows how the year or years will play out. Meanwhile I shall consistently back test for more data evidence.
Now if I was a full time trader, then ideally the daily bars would be the way to go to diversify this strategy even further. Unfortunately I donât have the time to trade Daily bars consistently so thereâs no point for now. I will however back test more daily bars some time in the future once Iâve completed all my Weekly tests.
Plenty of setups & trade entries this month. Hereâs a few more setups with orders placed for the monthly & weekly bars.
Floating profit is looking good but itâs very early days and I donât take anything for granted. I could still end up with a loosing month. My emotion is completely detached with this strategy. I just follow the rules regardless.
Well Iâve was forward testing the last 5 years and got no where. Since back testing I made 35% with my supply & demand strategy. So this year I am back testing mechanical strategies whilst forward testing them on small accounts. Im only interested in long term profitable strategies. Ideally 3 proven strategies will diversify my portfolio. Early days but for me this is how I need to trade emotionally & confidently.
In answer to your questionâŚIf you find you keep changing rules or breaking your rules, then you have no confidence. Its catch 22. So back testing is important. However if you are profitable without back testing then your lucky to have found confidence & emotional control with your strategy & I wish you good yearly profits. Unfortunately im not so lucky.
One more thing I would like to say. There are many ways to make money trading. No one way is wrong. Its a matter of finding what suits you 100%. 99% is not good enough for me any more.
Thanks for question MoneyNVRSleeps.
Good post man! Iâm fortunate the one thing in life I am extremely well disciplined at is trading the foreign exchange. I do not take any non strategy based trades period. Just like you, I feel 99% confidence/ability to follow your own rules is not good enough. That 1% difference is what sets the proâs apart from the non successful. 100% confidence and discipline is the most difficult requirement one has to have and is the only way to continuously succeed in forex after one has found their own unique edge.
I was one of the worst traders in the world when I first started. Placed non system trades, got emotional, lost my account multiple times. Then something changed, Iâm not even sure what caused it. I went from a no system, emotional based trader to becoming a system pioneer freak! I became obsessed with creating systems, to this day Iâm still working on my new one ad constantly reflecting back on all the old ones I built along the way.
A good trading system consists of a set of rules that automatically cancel your bad characteristics/tendencies are as a trader, and not just a few, I mean ALL your bad tendencies. This means if you are following your system exactly as it was designed and with 100% compliance, you will not make any mistakes that actually cost you money outside a loss generated solely from the strategy.
My system is perfect for me for the exact reasons above. I used to over trade⌠My system now allows me to always be in the market because I get in at open on the daily and close my trade at the end of the day at dailey close. I used to watch price and trade off price movement due to emotions, now I only look at my statistics in excel and trade patterns, numbers donât have emotion in a spreadsheet with no color :). Those are only two examples and not necessarily great ones, but I hope you guys get the picture. Hope this helps those new traders!
Have just read most of your journal and have a better understanding of the reasons behind your whole approach to trading now. People brush over the personality thing and it becomes a standard 1 liner, but the fact is you have to be able to trade your strategy and you have to find a way around the hurdles which present themselves. I see the ways you are using backtesting in dealing with some of these hurdles.
Personally i believe at this point that in the right circumstances there is some value in discretionary trading, or perhaps more accurately described semi-discretionary trade management especially on the shorter time frames where the large amount of screen time has an effect on various pattern perception. However as previously mentioned you have to be able to trade your strategy optimally and that goes back to the personality thing etc.
On another note, have you done any backtesting on a system where you use multiple entry points or compounding as it were and compared that to the results of the same strategy executed without compounding. You know the old saying you need money to make money? Well i think you need to make money to make money. You make money on the winning trades, so can we make more off of those trades without exposing ourselves to excessive riskâŚwas just interested to know if you had any data?
Tyrone and i discuss concepts, you may notice i did not mention a single figure in my post.
He trades mechanically because of his experience with emotional trades etc. I feel there is a place for discretionary trading.
In his turtle thread he too thinks about compounding and its implications. I merely asked if he had any data.
Its not about greed d-pip its about being as efficient as possible. Cant remember who said it but âyou have to live in that place between fear and greedâ rings true.
I respect your knowledge and experience d-pip but question your motives in the clumsily veiled insults.
Great idea, i wont ask tyrone about his own thoughts on his own journal regarding concept or strategy or if he has any data on a subject he discusses elsewhere. Iâll read investopedia instead.
Genius!
I get your question. I do believe in compounding, but have only done some back testing of the Turtle strategy cross referencing against other trend strategies. I also done plenty of research which proves positive long term. As you can tell I need long term profitable strategies that are 100% mechanical. The live testâs are to see if I have the right aptitude to stick to the rules. So far so good.
There are many ways to compound without exposing risk too much, but at the end of the day your losses will add up more by compounding. The flip side is a much larger profit potential. The reason I mention this is to give understanding to compounding. Compounding works best on trend following strategies for obvious reasons. The secret to me is:
100% mechanical rules
Many years of back testing providing real evidence of survival.
Aptitude to follow plan (Belief)
Thatâs my philosophy in a nutshell.
I do believe that discretionary trading is possible. Iâve done it with Supply & Demand. Last year I made 35% which im very pleased about, however I want to keep my emotions out of trading 100% which for me is not possible unless itâs mechanical. This is where my experience & understanding has taken me so far. I know what path im walking & finally I can see a destination.
Hey d-pip, thanks for updating percentages. Saves me doing it lol.
One thing to remember is that im risking amything between 1% & 10% per pair traded across 11 pairs over 2 time frames so although my figures look good, its very high risk. This should be based on a $2000 account. Ideally I would only be risking anything from 0.1% to 1% per pair. So if we divided 38% by 10, I would be up by 3.8%. This is how I will trade when I decide to pump some of my savings into this strategy.
Thanks for update though
Glad you understood my question the way i posed it tyrone. It was in no way a critcism of your approach or methods and it didnt cross my mind that you could/ would take it as such. Obviously another member of the forum misunderstood my post resulting in the above posts.
Your backtesting regime is impressive and i thought you might have some data.
We all have different ways to essentially solving the same or similar problems. Its very interestimg talking to people who have found an approach that works for them that is different to my own. I think that exchanging ideas and working on strategies with such people is very beneficial to all of usâŚits a thought process diversification if you like.
I understand from your journal that youâve recently turned a corner in your trading having achieved profitability last year. Its not easy sticking it out through the ups and downs but with determination and hard work and all the rest of it progression is a nice feeling.
