Hi, norwegian oil companys have declared a lockout of oil workers, so all the oil exports to europe will stop(about 20%)…
I was wondering, what do you think the Nok will do since it is heavily correlated to oil, and the oil price would surely rise?
I am thinking the nok would not follow the oil price, but the second we start ezport again it nok would rise fast?
what do you guys think?
(Assuming the norwegian government doesn’t interveen)
From the fundamental point of view, the price of the oil should have been already around $100, but it is struggling to rise due to the concerns of new recession. From the technical analysis point of view, on the last 3-4 time the oil reached $80 it rose more than 25% and I believe it is going to be the case again. If it breaks through the strong resistance at $86.50 it will jump above $90 and continue to $100. However, as stated, there are strong concerns from recession and therefore the oil might slide eventually. in this case I will open a short position if it slides under $84, although it is not my favorite option.
Hi, thanks for your reply, and sorry for my late one…
I like your strategy, but I was more interested in what happend to NOK(since it is so higly correlated to oil) when it stopped exporting for a small time period. unfortunatly the goverment interveened so I could se the reaction(Im guessing its a good thing tho, it would been a high price to pay for my curiosity 
)
I am Bullish on the Oil but as MaxGold said that the recession issues in the world might dampen the demand of oil so it could be back below 80$.