Why are so many people convinced that even though they don’t know anything about trading they can plug in a highly suspect piece of software and hope to make fortunes?
Why do so many people keep looking for the very most complex strategies they can think of when it’s quite obvious from the most experienced traders on here that the more simple strategies are best?
Why do people think they can master a skill that will earn them a mega living working from home a few hours week in a few months, when it takes 3 years to earn a university qualification so that you can have the chance to get a mediocre job where you have to work your but off?
Why do people ask questions in the first place if the only answer they take notice of is the one they want to hear in the first place?
There are probably more questions, and I’m not looking for answers, I think the initiated know the answers, I just want to highlight the point really.
People think forex is “the easy way out”. People are lazy and think they will sit at home and play games and make money. Trading is an absolute passion and skill and takes many hard earned hours to master.
I think I’ve seen it quoted in one of the market wizards books, IIRC someone being interviewed claimed that he was given this information from a futures broker, and the rumour has spead.
The recent figures released by brokers seam to put the figure up at around 75% non profitable, but I think thats over a 3 month period, the real failure rate would probably be much higher.
Take a look at the results of automated trading competitions. What % end up profitable, what are total gains v total losses for everyone taking part. It tends to support the 95% rumour.
Take a look at the statistics from a network such as curencee, the people participating dont tend to do that well. Take a look at their trade leader program, out of the thousands registered there are a handful doing OK (significantly less than you might expect just by random chance !)
Take a look at the returns from traders offering managed accounts with retail brokers. Alpari are a good example, they have more than 4500 PAMM account holders, gow many are positive (discount the ones trading for 2 weeks with 6000% returns)
Take a look at collective 2, zulu trade, rent a signal, zip signals. What % are profitable v non profitable. Compare total gains v total losses.
There’s an awful lot of evidence out there when you start looking that supports the fact that this game is a little more difficult than it first appears.
I’m not even sure people do focus on this 95% losers thing, from what I see most have totally unrealistic expectatons that they’ll be in the minority
newbies hear about the 4trillion dollars going through the market and think of it as their personal pot of gold, while the pros know that the 4trillion dollars is their competition, so they know to tread carefully with all trades. Especially since the markets trade 24 hours a day, you’re basically competing against a non-sleeping, non-eating abominable beast of a market!
Just for the record, the Currensee Trade Leader program isn’t just “these are the members with the best performance”. Currensee actually has a process by which they screen potential Trade Leaders - who I believe have to actually “apply” for the position in the first place. As such, this isn’t a good group on which to do a statistical analysis.
The thing I’d toss into the discussion is the fact that a large percentage of those who start just about anything - businesses, athletic careers, etc. - fail to make anything of it. Trading most definitely isn’t alone in that.
The great thing about the forex market is that you will always have so many people who THINK they are good enough losing their money to so few who actually ARE good enough
I agree, its often the case that when a traders doing well, they attract additional capital, so when the drawdown inevitably hits them, their dollar losses can be large. Nervous investors withdraw, and further gains are made on reduced amounts. Its possible to make good returns for the year on your own capital, but actually report a large dollar losses.
CTA’s tend to suffer from these sorts of issues as their track record tends to get set in stone.
I’m sure its not possible to draw statistically valid conclusions from the sources of figures that I’ve quoted, but they do provide some indication of the difficulties people experience.
I also agree with you that its largely irelevant what other people can or cannot achieve
How does Dale make any money when he spends so much time on this forum?
LOL!!!
Believe it not: the forum keeps me from ‘messing’ with trades (you know the saying about ‘idle hands’)??? LOL!!! It used to be a big downfall of mine. Now I’m quite at ease with placing orders the previous day or night and forgetting about them i.e. ‘what will be will be’ (either I’m going to get stopped out or I’m not)!!! (I cannot lie to you i.e. I check on positions more often than I should but I think that’s a combination of ‘old habits die hard’ and ‘obsessive compulsive behaviour’ but I STILL do not ‘mess’ with the trades)!!! (And alright: I have to also admit that I have SMS alerts turned on so that I know whether to place a stop or move a stop or if an order of any type has been executed. So I’m not perfect YET)!!! LOL!!!
Edit:
Come to think of it: it was a RHETORICAL question!!! LOL!!!
I should stop all of this ‘frivolity’ before I ‘land myself in trouble’!!! So on a SERIOUS note: I find myself asking the same questions as ‘purplepatchforex’ more and more often. The funny thing is: in my case it was ‘none of the above’ i.e. I never saw it as a ‘get rich quick scheme’ or anything like that (I was doing quite well in my previous business and, well, you know of the ‘love / hate’ relationship that I’ve developed with THIS business over the years)!!! Yes: due to a ‘not too accurate’ demo account (you know of THOSE types of demo accounts) I made a few USD in a short space of time but nothing that gave me the idea that I would be retiring in a month or two!!! So GO FIGURE!!! LOL!!! It’s just something I always wanted to do I guess (and thought that with the money that I had back then that there is just NO WAY a person could fail). I of course have to admit that the ‘spin’ that Hollywood puts on this business doesn’t help anybody either (of course here I’m talking more about equities and the like than forex). And of course there’s the ‘usual suspects’ i.e. the ‘scammers with empty promises’. I fear that I fell into that category once although I really did (and possible still do believe) that 100% PER ANNUM gain on an account is by no means impossible even while observing conservative money managment rules (and all the other ‘usual stuff’ that we all talk about every week). But I’ve seen ‘guaranteed returns’ of 2 500% cited in a few days / weeks and for SOME reason or the other these people still find ‘clients’ (and what many people don’t realise is that Bernie Madoff was only APPARANTELY ‘doing’ something like 2% per month ‘without fail’ and had most of Wall Street ‘up in arms’ on 2% per month)!!! LOL!!! I mean: I received some or the other list of awards that were presented the other day and (I forget the guy’s name but) the TOP Hedge Fund Manager (managing BILLIONS of dollars) won the competition with an annual return for the fund of something like 29%. So where everybody gets the idea they’re going to treble the value of an account ‘every other week’ escapes me!!!
(And BY THE WAY: my reference to ‘gambling’ was a bit of a ‘private joke’ between a few of us around here. I thought I’d better mention this before this becomes yet ANOTHER thread that runs for a few hundred pages arguing the same topic)!!! LOL!!!
And if that software really did work, why isn’t the developer of the software using it to make his millions instead of setting up a website to sell the software?
This kind of attitude is the difference between a good trader and a great trader. There is a saying that “millionaires do not use astrology only billionaires” : )
Whilst unfounded stats are being banded about, I’ve read it takes about 10,000 hours to achieve excellence in a field/sport. So I’m 2% there on forex:)
Most gamblers who are introduced to forex will be attracted to give it a go. After all it’s a line on a chart, if you can guess if it’s going to go up or down you win money YeeHaw.
Now some people say you can tell which way the line will goes next by looking where the line has been and some people say you can tell where the line will go next by watching the news. And some say a bit of both. I mean how hard can it be.
I suspect that the true statistic is a familiar/repeated one. It applies to any business that people want to “get rich quick” without trying to work hard. I can think of a few other avenues where this is applicable. I’m sure the stats can’t be too far off.
But my question is why go on about it, it shouldn’t even be a consideration to anyone who wants to succeed, you shouldn’t need to care about anyone else’s success, just your own, forget about the 95%,75% or whatever on earth it might be.
You’re ‘up and about’ early ‘purplepatchforex’??? LOL!!! What: it must be 06h00 in the morning there now???
Welcome back ‘Viper5’: you’ve not been around these parts for a while. Best wishes for the coming year to you (I spent an entire day ‘wishing’ everybody else last year and ‘throwing my name away’ but you were not around at the time)!!!
