Hi there,
There is a thing I dont exactly get,
As I can see, there are many systems published, and most authors claim their system makes money in the long run. The thing is, why is it impossible to find a working EA then? I mean, all systems can be automated. And a robot is more accurate than the human eye, when it comes down to trading systems.
Would like to hear your take on this,
Regards, Alexey
Perhaps the message is that a system that can be automated doesn’t work?
Well there is a difference between the authors’ statement and the reality. You cannot copy a 100 % someone else’s system and expect to work out perfectly. At least this is my opinion. Especially if the authors who claim that their devices or systems will always work for a certain amount of a monthly fee or at a specific price. I don’t know…it’s just doesn’t seem believable to me. I am sure that there are such working systems but I don’t think they are available for the public or if they are, they will not work so long as the author claims.
Or maybe it is just because soon or later the market (e.g. Brokers) gets adapted to every profitable EA and learn how to counter it.
You cannot match up with live situation with book or forums. You can follow anyone suggestion. But when you are going to apply those you have to use your brain. Also you can follow same system but others review. Also you can follow different popular trading forum like BabyPips. Then finally which system you like to use choose that in a demo trading platform. Then finally take your decision and trade.
Exactly. Don’t try to learning at random, it just wasting of time nothing without it. First of all follow the message which is best according to you. and by using that suggestion the knowledge you have acquired , try to use in a demo or micro account to see the performance how it works.
The problem with most automated systems is that they can not adjust to changing market conditions. For example, they can not look at an upcoming news announcement and determine how likely it is or is not that it will create dangerous volatility. They also can not easily (ever) change trading strategy in choppy vs non choppy markets or trending vs non trending markets.
Why you suggest micro account for practicing?
Hi @forexprofittrader I am new to Forex, but I have a degree in computer science and have been programming about 10 years now. What I can say is that a robot/software application is not more accurate than the human eye. A robot or piece of software must be programmed by a another human. This means that there are inevitably going to be mistakes and the robot can only be as intelligent as the person who programmed it.
An application is basically just a set of instructions and computers follow instructions, extremely well. They can’t read between the lines and interpret what you may have been thinking when you wrote a specific instruction, they will just execute it exactly as you have written it.
With a human eye for example we can see patterns, such as triangles, head and shoulders, etc…, but a computer cannot see these patterns, they don’t see a graph, they just see numbers. You’d have to figure out a way to program your bot so that it just doesn’t appear to look like a random set of numbers, but that it actually forms some pattern. This is much more difficult than one may think. Let’s say I feed it all the numbers from a triangle pattern and tell it that if it ever see’s these numbers again and in this order to perform some strategy. It will only perform it, if those exact numbers fall in the same exact pattern at the same exact location. Problem is that will rarely if ever happen. A triangle may form again, but the numbers will be different and in a different location.
You’d have to develop some kind of machine learning algorithm and feed it hundreds or even thousands of triangles and teach it to calculate the slight variations in patterns. It’s not impossible, but it’s a lot of work and very time consuming.
This next statement is my opinion, but I’m willing to bet that a developer that has been able to put in a lot of time, effort and money into developing a successful EA is not going to sell it on the open market, but use it for him/herself. People that sell EA’s are people looking to make money off of simple EA’s that were easy to develop and were successful over a short period of back test. My guess is the ones that tend to fail over time haven’t been tested well enough and haven’t been optimized with each variation of back test.
Market conditions are unpredictable because of the cumulative decisions of all the people participating. People are unpredictable, but there are behaviors that we tend to do as a group - we tend to react a certain way at certain levels, etc. That’s why using statistical probability you can figure out which are the highest ‘win’ trades based on repeating patterns. But it’s never 100% certain. A highly skilled chartist can read the chart in real time and adapt to the conditions that are unfolding, but an automated system? It’s not capable of turning on a dime. In some conditions that would make it more profitable, because it’s not second guessing itself like a human would. But in other conditions that would make it less profitable because sometimes a change in plan is necessary and it wouldn’t be able to do that.
Hi there,
Thank you for this clear answer, now I understand why good EA’s are hard to find and manual trading by humans is important.
You can teach yourself to program in the MQL4 language and develop your own EA’s in the MT4 platform. I think EA’s can be valuable in triggering alerts for you. For example if two specific indicators cross path’s or you want an EA to recognize divergence. You can have an EA trigger an alert allowing you to respond and trade when the conditions are right.
I don’t think, profitable trading systems are available here and there! Making consistent money is not easy actually! I see, pro traders have a huge knowledge on technical and fundamental analysis! Besides, I have enough doubt on automatic trading.
I have also very bad experience on EA trading! Don’t believe any Holy Grail trading EA or strategy, Holy Grail doesn’t exist here!
I look at it the other way around, and would be amazed to find one that really works, because I don’t understand why anyone would ever want to sell one that really works?
It’s a common thing that demo account is best place for practicing. But traders trade here at all seriously? For that reason it is more appropriate for practicing micro account instead of demo. Thank you
It’s your choice peter. You can . but newcomer must avoid first of all to trade with real money . it can make them greedy and emotional. So I always prefer demo.
Exactly, same opinion here! Scammers mainly sell their trading EAs and systems.
ea is not a very effective instrument as the market is constantly changing. what worked once, won’t work within some time
that is the reason why I prefer manual trading
Absolutely, manual trading is much reliable than automatic trading! I have seen, a number of pro traders trade manually. That inspires me to do manual trading.