[B]CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report 18 June[/B], published 12 June 2013, [I]Technical Analysis[/I]. Speculators continued their massive selling of the USD, as they cover their shorts in the euro, pound, SF, the DI and the yen. Last week, the total long the USD and short another currency was 414.4K. It was reduced to 255.2K as the the specs bought aggressively. This is down from an all-time USD long of 540.4 back on the May 28 report.
The euro and the SF saw sufficient spec-buying that the specs flipped from a short to a small long position. Specs who flipped to the long side of the euro made the wrong move as the euro versus the USD has gone straight down since the cut-off for the report.
It is interesting to note there was heavy liquidation in both the yen and the pound - about 75K each. Bears held their positions in the yen but there was heavy short covering in the pound. The pound OI went lower than the OI in the C$. It now looks like it was short-covering that carried the pound above the 1.57 handle. Should any bear news show in the pound, there are probably some sold-out bears who are anxious to get some of their money back in the pound.
[B]US Dollar Index[/B]: June contract expiration resulted in the OI going down by 28.1K contracts and was mostly caused by the specs who reduced their position to 19.5K. It was 49.5 the prior week. The small spec remains a 3 ratio long but the large spec has gotten his position closer to even.
[B]Euro (EUR/USD)[/B]: This was another week for buying by the big specs as they flipped from a short to a long position in the euro. Small specs remain a small short. Late week market action hurt the new euro bulls. The total euro spec long was 10.6 compared to a 25.1K short in the prior week. This week again is a very big shift. Option trade is large, representing almost 14.3% of the total OI.