Hi, this seems like the right thread to post live setups.
I learned forex late 2013 and I traded for months and lost my first two accounts on 5mins scalping indicators. I stopped trading for 6 months because I was busy and just started again. This time I use price action with support and resistance on daily charts. It’s hard to see trades so I put every forex chart on my platform.
The strategy works so far, I risk 5% of my account and take a win/loss ratio of 2.5:1.
It’s been scary successful for a month (70% wins) so I want to make sure it’s not a fluke, so I’ll trade with it for 2 months more and I’ll be posting live price action trades I’m using so that I keep a 2 month track record of my trades. And if I’m still as successful as I am now, I’ll certify the strategy as my best yet.
Hopefully it does well so some people can make some pips
Just placed a trade on EURCHF because of the pinbar after retracement. Got my entry signal a few minutes ago.
At 1.06023
Take profit 1.06922
Stop loss 1.5720
Win /loss ratio of 3:1, risking only 5% of my account. So I only need to win 25% of my trades to remain profitable. Hopefully it hits my target.
EURCHF is already up by 45 pips, if you’re the type that places two trades while taking 45 in one and 90 on the other you’ve already taken some profit like me. But it’s money managed to make sure only 5% of the account is risked.
Once it moves to 55pips, shift up your stop-loss to break even so you don’t lose. Good luck
That certainly sounds an incomparably safer method than “scalping with indicators”!
Watching with interest, and wishing you well with them.
A 70% win-rate with a return-to-risk ratio of 2.5/1 sounds absolutely unimaginable, to me: that’s a profit factor of a staggering [B]5.83[/B]!! (And at 3/1, it’s [B]7.0[/B]!!).
I might also be [I]tempted[/I] to risk 5% per trade, at that level, I suppose … but be aware that you can still easily have a losing run of 15 trades, and/or (b) a “patch” of 25 losing trades interspersed by only a couple of winners. I’d be much more comfortable with 2.5% position-sizes, myself, through worry about how long a method with an astonishing PF of 5.83 can [I]really[/I] be sustained??
I’m hoping it is a long-term working strategy because I practically almost doubled my account in July.
I’ll be shocked if I have 15 losses though, I have price action and support/resistance on my side to reduce my losses. I know I should risk only 2-3% but, I calculated how much I will make as profit and I’m comfortable with losing 5% as long as I get 50% wins a month.
Thanks for responding, the trick is in the entry of the trade
With a win-rate of 70%, you [B]will[/B] at some point have 15 consecutive losses, if you trade for long enough.
It’s a mathematical certainty, and there’s actually a higher than 50% probability of that happening within the first 600 trades (or within [I]any[/I] pre-specified period of 600 trades). This is irrefutable.
What you’ll [I]probably[/I] have before that, though, is a period of 25 losses separated by only a small number of winners, and that has exactly the same effect on your bankroll.
This is subjective, depending on your degree of risk-aversion, the extent to which it’s “experimental money you’re willing to lose”, and so on.
(Edited to add: I would probably be risking 2.5%, myself, but the fact that that’s right for me doesn’t necessarily make it right for you, which is of course one of the reasons why this is such a thorny subject! )
Please excuse my sounding a real skepchick, but I think of trading as being about 60% money-management and position-sizing, 30% psychology, 8% trade-management (stop-losses and exits) and only 2% entries, so whenever I see someone saying that “the trick is in the entries”, it gives me some vicarious foreboding. :8:
The day I have 15 straight losses is the day I dump my strategy. Any strategy that loses that consecutively is a terrible strategy, unless you consider break even as a loss. I never even lost that much when I started trading as a novice originally with 5mins chart scalping :lol:
I know I’ll have a bad patch where I’ll lose 75% of my trades and win only 25%. But that’s the beauty of my Risk/reward ratio, I’ll still be in profit using a 3:1 win/loss.
Entry point is very important too, I’ll never be able to keep up with a 30-35pip stop loss or come up with a good risk/reward ratio without a good entry point. In fact that is the strength of my strategy compared to other regular price action traders. Combine that with moving my stop loss to break-even after 50-55pips helps me to reduce losses drastically.
We’ll see if it’s a fluke and July was just a fantasy month, but I studied my charts as far back as 2011 and the signals were spot on baring a few losses.
Thanks for commenting though, I’ll take your advice and prepare for the losing streak period for every trader…
Then please excuse the observation that some basic-level knowledge of statistics and position-sizing would help you. To put it mildly, it wouldn’t be wise to dump a strategy with a 70% win-rate and a profit factor of 5.83!
Just be aware that if those figures are correct, there’s still a [U]more than 50% chance[/U] of hitting 15 consecutive losers within the first 600 trades. That [U]isn’t[/U] [I]in itself[/I] a reason to abandon a system; one simply needs to be aware that “such things happen”, [I]routinely and normally[/I], even with systems as profitable as your initial figures suggest yours is. That’s just part of trading, and one [B]has[/B] to use position-sizing that allows for it.
No; sorry to come across as argumentative (if I do), but that’s honestly just completely wrong.
You seem somehow to have it in your mind that if a strategy has a win-rate of 70% and PF of 5.83, it “shouldn’t” ever lose 15 consecutive trades; but this is simply mistaken!
That’s not the problem. The problem is that you’ll have a bad patch (of perhaps 30-ish trades in length) where you’ll lose [B]90%[/B] of your trades and win only 10%. That’s statistically inevitable, even with a system as successful as your initial figures suggest this is.
If you’re willing to “revisit” your beliefs about losing runs and so on, you’d [I]really[/I] find the explanations in this book, about win-rates and position-sizing [B][B]very[/B][/B] helpful indeed: “[I]Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom[/I]”, by Van K. Tharp.
I dont know how long the OP has been using this system in order to calculate his 70% success rate, but I trade a system wuth similar rates.
However, I’m with Lexys here.
While this rate implies 7 wins and 3 losses in every 10 trades, it doesn’t work like this. Every time he trades past results count for nothing, each trade stands on its own. A run of 3 losses doesn’t guarantee the next will win, he could well continue losing several more times, likewise he could go on a massive winning streak. The problem is, the losing streak could blow his account regardless of how much he accumulates in his winning streak. And some day that losing streak will come.
It doesn’t make the strategy wrong, it does bring the importance of money management to the fore
From quite a complicated formula - but I didn’t do that, in this case: I just happen to have a little table on my computer * (from a statistics textbook from my college days, i.e. a couple of years ago) which lists the percentage probabilities of having one or more series of “n” consecutive losers within a run of 600 trades (which was why I “arbitrarily” chose that number to offer in what I mentioned above :8: ), for loss-rates of 1% to 100%).
The “consecutive losers probability calculation” is explained in detail by Michael Harris is his book “[I]Profitability and Systematic Trading[/I]”, and you can actually see the relevant section here (look at around page 65/66-ish): isbn:0470369094 - Google Search
Note, though, that losing “patches” (in which losers heavily predominate over winners for much longer periods than pure losing runs), [I]having the same financial outcome[/I], are always [B]far[/B] more common than “straight losers”. It’s the “losing patch” that’s the enemy, in this context, not the “losing run”, so that the reality tends always to be quite a lot riskier and more to the downside than the “pure formula” (the source behind what I referred to above) suggests. Specifically, the mistake to avoid, in this context, is measuring the longest bad run seen over 500 or 1,000 backtested trades and thinking something like “Well, if I allow 50% more than that, I should be ok”. This approach [U]surprisingly often[/U] turns out to lead to a big disappointment.
(Edited to add: * it’s just as convenient as having your computer on a little table )
I don’t know why risking 5% seems so scary. I would never risk 5% on any strategy that doesn’t use price action trades with support and resistance levels.
That way I’ll make money while controlling my losses by pushing my stop-loss to break even.
In July I doubled my live account, and I actually lost only 2 out of 10 trades. That’s how I got the 70% win-rate Infact it’s even more. I wanted to test it for a couple more months and post my trades here.
The thing that confuses me is how I can lose 15 straight trades in a row. It’ll probably happen to my strategy once in 10 years, that’s how negligible I see that happening.
Please mods, I posted my signal hours ago but it hasn’t come up yet so I’m posting it again. Sorry if it seems like I’m spamming.
I just clinched 120pips on EURCHF after moving my take profit above the original 90 pips.
I took a sell on AUDUSD after the inside bar signal on the daily charts. I waited for the aud fundamental news at 1.30am Gmt to finish before taking the sell on the 4hr pinbar it formed.
Entry point is 0.73311
Take profit 1 is 0.72900
Take profit 2 is 0.72400
Stop loss is 0.73600
Combined risk of just 5% of my account.
Like I did for the EURCHF, I took 45 pips early and moved my stop-loss to break even and waited till my profit hit, I’m doing the same here for AUDUSD, after 55pips I’ll move my stop-loss to break even so that I control my losses.
If the trade is looking good (getting close to 75pips), I’ll increase my TP to 120pips and move my stop-loss 55pips close to current price.
I lost the last trade so I’m at +105pips now. I’m going to make full use of any setups that works in my favor by increasing my first takeprofit to 90 pips and 2nd to 200pips. This way I win 290 pips if I win and lose 60 pips if I lose.
I’m still risking only 5% combined for the two trades, and as usual I’ll move my stop-loss to break even after I’m 50-55pips up.
I’ve been sick for almost a week so I haven’t posted here in a while. But I’ve learned how to apply my strategy on the 4hr time-frame.
Just placed a trade using a signal on the 4hr chart. My signals on the daily charts are hard to come by, that’s why the winning rate is high. But I’m trying out the same price action strategy on the 4hr chart now but not lower than this.
EURUSD
Sell at 1.10520
Tp 1.10236
SL 1.10834
I used a risk reward ratio of 1:1 because it’s the only way my targets are hit more often on the smaller 4hr chart time-frame.
Goodluck
I’ve not been here for ages, but I’ll try to be back now. I’ve modernized my technical analysis to strictly support and resistance levels trades.
I took a buy 6 hours ago on the usdchf at 0.96922 and my Tp 0.97241, SL 0.96680 it’s about to hit the target this morning so I’ve pushed up my stop-loss by 15 pips.
Just minutes ago I took some trades
eurnzd- sell at 0.67142, Tp 0.6680, SL 0.67442.
Usdcad- buy at 1.28452, Tp 0.29160, SL 0.27980.
In the eurnzd, there was a bearish pinbar at the 4hr chart on the resistance level of 0.67300
And on the usdcad chart, there was a bullish pinbar on the daily time-frame at support level 1.27640
Hopefully the targets are hit without any fundamental news interference.
All my trades were wins today, and I got a cool 132pips in total. 30 pips for usdchf, 30pips for eurnzd and 72 for usdcad. Looks like I have some good money for the weekend ������ See you on Monday.
There was a pinbar at the resistance level of 0.68203 on both 4hr chart and 12hr chart so I placed two trades risking just 1 % each. I’m hoping that the profit for the 4hr chart pinbar hits TP1 and the 12hr chart hits TP2.
������ See you on Monday.