Starting to hear noises about USD/JPY ending the year on 115

Hi all…

Ok, so while watching Bloomberg TV on Thursday (?) I caught the back end of an article that stated 'another major company has predicted the USD/JPY pairing to reach 115 by the end of the year…
This obviously captured my attention, and as such I started to dig… Turns out that there are signs and enough major players kinda feeling the same thing, with the potential of 120 reached next year.

Now take into account the ‘sales tax hike effect’, the quadrillion yen debt, inevitable money easing by the BoJ, the fact that the Japanese government pension is investing more and more overseas, the strong dollar which is set to have a very strong 2015, and this all seems far too obvious and almost too good to be true.

Any thoughts or comments?

Sometimes the simplest trades are the best. Check out the Yen move in 2012 to 2013 from 78.00 to 100.00. That was pretty much on the Abe Effect, which was widely known ahead of time. Or the Yen rally during the 2008 financial crisis. Or even this year’s fall of the euro ahead and during the ECB rate cuts this year. But the hard part is that we don’t know how far the moves will go, or if there will be a new event coming that will change the entire story. That’s why trade/risk management is a more important skill than just picking direction. There’s no certainty in the markets, so the best thing to do is to focus on maximizing the times we’re right, and minimizing our losses during the times we’re wrong. My two pips.

BNPPARIBAS have bought USD/JPY at 108.12 and are taking profit at 112. I have also heard that USD/JPY is going to be at 120 early next year too.