STATE OF THE MARKETS
Bearish breadth hit stocks again. US stocks lost bids on Thursday, alongside Dollar and US treasuries. Dow (-1.45%), Nasdaq (-3.74%), and S&P (-2.44%) including Russell (-1.90%) fell lower with bearish breadth as declining volume passed 80% on the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges. The 10Y bonds lost demand sending yields back above 1.85% as the Dollar fell to the 95.20 barrier.
In the commodities market, crude continued its upward trajectory, settling above $89/bl as markets digested OPEC’s recent move as bullish. Gold dipped to $1,788.58/oz before bidders emerged and settled the precious metal back at above $1,800/oz. Elsewhere, supply chain issues in China continue to drive iron ore higher, near $146/tn, the highest since August last year.
In the FX space, Euro seized the helm of demand across all horizons as Sterling retreated. Short and medium term traders seem to bid the oversold high beta trios – Aussie, Kiwi, Loonie. Long term sentiments turned bullish as Yen and Swiss were sent to offers while Dollar remained in demand territories.
On Friday, markets look for earnings reports from Johnson Outdoors (JOUT), Royal Caribbean (RCL), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) and Virtus Investments (VRTS) as well as the latest US NFP figures.
OUR PICK – No New Pick
No new pick going into the weekend. As we had anticipated last week, the Dollar surge was just stops hunting as the upside volume was light. However, the geopolitical risks in Russia-Ukraine tension could elevate Dollar demand in the near term. DXY pulled back and there was no support at 96. Trading at 95.20/30 at writing. Weaker employment numbers mean Feds would not be able to tighten as much as expected. With inflation rising, Feds would be in a dilemma. Dollar would be in uncertain and choppy territory. The path of least resistance is downward motive.
Trades updates:
Equities: Currently we are holding 8 stocks – 7 longs and 1 short. We are long AUY (21% undervalued) with dividends yielding 3.01%, COG (CTRA) (16% undervalued) yielding 2.18% and averaged down on T (15% undervalued) at 8.47% yields. CLVS is currently 24% overvalued with -8.20 z-score but recent SEC reports showed institutional net buying and we decided to hold. We remain bullish with VIPS (45% undervalued with 5.98 z-score), GT (38% undervalued with 1.40 z-score) and CRON (19% undervalued with 9.18 z-score) while bearish GE (15% overvalued with 1.43 z-score). We have also locked profits for GE, GT and CTRA.
FX & Commodities: No new positions
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Risk Disclaimer:
This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities/oz. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.