State of The Markets | Dollar Firmed As Inflation Looms


Dollar firmed as inflation looms. As US stocks closed lower for the second day, Dollar firmed above the 94.50 mark ahead of inflation reading on Wednesday. Major indexes from Dow (-0.34%), S&P (-0.24%) to Nasdaq (-0.14%) trending lower after a choppy session, while small cap Russell (+0.61%) gained higher as investors seek some safety in bonds that saw the 10Y yielded lower to 1.57%

In the commodities market, crude rally was halted around $80.30/bl as traders book profits ahead of the FOMC minutes release. Gold firmed above $1,760/oz as bidders emerged speculating on inflation rise and Fed’s not ready to taper. Elsewhere, iron ore edged lower to $130/tn after the price may have found a floor around $120/tn – the price it was 12 months ago.

In the FX space, Loonie seized the helm of demand across all horizons at the back of Aussie and Kiwi weakness. Sterling was seen synching all horizons as Swiss retreated to the back burner in the short term accounts. Euro, Yen and Dollar were little changed as markets ready for inflation reading and FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

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No new stock picks as we are at maximum equities exposure. Currently we are holding 8 stocks – 7 longs and 1 short. We are long AUY (22% undervalued) with dividends yielding 2.95%, T (18% undervalued) at 7.99% yields and COG (17% undervalued) yielding 2.04%. CLVS is currently 20% overvalued with -7.19 z-score but Tudor Investment had stepped in recently and we decided to hold. We remain bullish with VIPS (43% undervalued with 5.59 z-score), GT (47% undervalued with 1.28 z-score) and CRON (15% undervalued with 9.18 z-score) while bearish GE (26% overvalued with 1.36 z-score).

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Note: Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) recently merged with Cimarex Energy to form Coterra Energy (CTRA).


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