STATE OF THE MARKETS
Dollar jumped as stocks sank further . US stocks tumbled further on Thursday after earnings for Qualcomm (QCOM) and Roku (ROKU) disappointed investors who also saw stronger than expected ADP job reports with easing claims and falling unemployment rate, which suggest that the Federal Reserve is not done hiking rates. Nasdaq (-1.73%) fell the most, followed by S&P (-1.06%), Russell (-0.53%) and Dow (-0.46%) as the Dollar index jumped back near the 113 handle. Bonds continued to be sold-off, sending yields higher, with the 10Y benchmark piercing 4.22% and the shorter term 2Y note reaching 4.75%.
In the commodity markets, Dollar strength pulled major commodities lower with crude oil settled below $87.35/bl and gold back below $1,630/oz as New York closed. Elsewhere, iron ore continues to flirt around $82.10/tn waiting for catalysts for the next move.
In the FX space, King Dollar continued to reign in the medium term accounts while demand pulled back in the short and long term accounts. Overall sentiments seemed bullish as demand for safe haven Yen pulled back across all horizons while Kiwi and Loonie returned to demand.
On Friday, markets expect a more choppy session as traders and investors continue to receive more release of the official employment situation in the US. Stronger jobs markets mean inflation is to persist and more Fed’s hikes to come, hence stronger Dollar and lower equities. Earnings to watch include Enbridge (ENB), Duke Energy (DUK), Dominion Energy (D), Hershey (HSY), Magna International (MGA) and Cardinal health (CAH).
OUR PICK – No New Picks
No new picks going into the weekend. Fed’s Chair Powell hawkish comments surprised investors who were hoping that rate hikes are near done. Investors continue to liquidate equities (-$6.0 billion) and bonds (-$4.1 billion) while moving more funds to short term money markets (+$35.8 billion) that yields higher. Dollar LIBOR 1Y rate is now 5.53% while the same tenure of US 1Y bill yields 4.84% on Thursday. This disparity signaled that Dollar strength is mostly fueled by international demands that we believe see the Dollar as an inflation hedge.
Trades updates:
Equities: WBA (19% undervalued, 5.37% yields), SQ (about fairly valued with 4.96 z-score), T (about fairly valued, 6.11% yields), CRON (28% undervalued with 23.21 z-score), M (44% undervalued, 3.19% yields) and AUY (22% undervalued, 2.94% yields) pulled back lower this week while VIPS (42% undervalued with 3.92 z-score) rebound as China announced the zero-Covid policy exit in March 2023.
FX & Commodities: AUD/CHF reached medium term TP2 and we updated Crude oil stop to $84.40.
Disclaimer:
This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.