STATE OF THE MARKETS
Markets mixed as the bond market closed. US stocks managed to rebound from earlier losses as the bond market was closed for the US Veteran’s Day. Dow (-0.44%) slipped lower while Nasdaq (+0.52%) and S&P (+0.06%) edged higher as Dollar continued to rally past the 95 handle on cash demand.
In the commodities market, crude was little changed, trading around Wednesday close, circa $80.15/bl, on Dollar strength. Gold continued its upward trajectory for the sixth day, settling around $1,861.50/oz as inflation concerns escalated. Elsewhere, iron ore rebounded back to $93.63/tn as China reported a reduction in inventories of 3.3% from last week.
In the FX space, flights to safety continue in short and medium term accounts as Yen, Swiss and Dollar led the demand while Aussie, Kiwi, Loonie and Sterling were offered. Long term sentiments were less bullish as Swiss advanced further in the demand territories. Markets looked for consumer sentiment reports as well as earnings reports from AstraZeneca (AZN), Spectrum (SPB) and Target Hospitality (TH) to name a few.
OUR PICK – No New Pick
No new pick going into the weekend. With rising annual inflation, from 5.4% to 6.2%, markets speculated that the Federal Reserves may have to taper more and even hike rates sooner than later, hence the Dollar rally. Since that was only speculation, precious metals rallied too as an inflation hedge. For all we know, this week, equities continue their outflow (-$2.71b) while bonds (+$10.08b) and money markets (+$11.02b) continue their inflows. At this point, investors are searching for ways to overcome inflation. Higher yielding currencies and stocks may see further demand in our views.
Trades updates:
Equities: Currently we are holding 8 stocks – 7 longs and 1 short. We are long AUY (18% undervalued) with dividends yielding 2.67%, T (19% undervalued) at 8.35% yields and COG (CTRA) (15% undervalued) yielding 2.40%. CLVS is currently 20% overvalued with -7.19 z-score but Tudor Investment had stepped in recently and we decided to hold. We remain bullish with VIPS (44% undervalued with 5.59 z-score), GT (47% undervalued with 1.28 z-score) and CRON (15% undervalued with 9.18 z-score) while bearish GE (16% overvalued with 1.43 z-score).
FX & Commodities: Our second attempt to long Crude didn’t quite work as planned.
Disclaimer:
This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.