STATE OF THE MARKETS
Negative yield curve is here. US stocks pared earlier losses on Wednesday after stronger than expected jobless claims, signaling better labor markets. Dow (+1.01%), Nasdaq (+1.90%) and S&P (+1.43%), including Russell (+1.12%) rebounded to close in the green as the Dollar index continued to hold the bids in 98.50 territories.
At writing, negative yield curves were noted in the 5, 7, and 10Y US treasuries with the 3Y matched the 10Y at 237 basis points. The 5Y and 7Y were at 2.40% and 2.42% respectively.
In the commodities market, crude dipped to $110.40/bl on profit taking while gold climbed higher to $1,957.50/oz as markets continue to bid the precious metal in anticipation of a prolonged Russia-Ukraine war. Elsewhere, iron ore continues to stall at $149.60-65/tn as markets await the next catalysts.
In the FX space, sentiments turned bearish in the short and medium term accounts as the safe-haven Swiss advanced further into the demand territories while the comdolls trio continued to be on bids across all horizons. News of potential Russia exclusion from the G-20 didn’t bode well with markets.
On Friday, the war will continue to be in the spotlight while markets look for earnings reports from BRP Inc (DOOO), Trinity Biotech (TRIB) and Elbit Systems (ESLT) as well as the latest figures in the US consumer sentiments and pending home sales.
OUR PICK – No New Pick
No new pick going into the weekend. Outflows from the capital markets has become a norm these days and we have no doubts that money is chasing real and commodity linked assets as markets expect inflation to continue to rise given the new variable of Russia-Ukraine war that is adding fuel to the already massive Fed’s inflation induced money supply. Inflation may flatten for a while, but only for a while in our view.
Trades updates:
Equities: AUY (17% undervalued, 2.12% yields) was well bid and only break below $5 would suggest further pullback to $4.50, we remain bullish CTRA (COG) (23% undervalued) yielding 2.22%, T (19% undervalued) at 8.92% yields, MO (19% undervalued) at 6.86% yields, VIPS (46% undervalued with 4.79 z-score), CRON (21% undervalued with 27.69 z-score) and WBA (32% undervalued, 4.06% yields).
FX & Commodities: Crude reached all targets and we are bullish silver.
Risk Disclaimer:
This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities/oz. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.