State of The Markets | Relief Rally Continues Amid Rising Yields


Relief rally continues amid rising yields . US stocks continue to rally as more companies reported better than expected earnings while bonds continue to lose demand, sending yields higher. The small caps Russell (+1.59%) climbed the most, followed by Nasdaq (+1.58%), S&P (+0.59%) and Dow (+0.15%) while the 10Y (3.04%) benchmark yields below the short term 1Y (3.22%) and 2Y (3.24%) notes. The Dollar index rebounded to settle above the 107 handle as New York closed.

In the commodity markets, crude slipped lower after the EIA reported lower gasoline demand amid the peak summer driving season. The black gold settled below $99.40/bl and continued to fall to $94.80/bl at writing. Gold continues to lose demand as investors expect higher rates coming in the next FOMC meeting. The metal closed below the $1,700/oz handle for the first time in 11 months. Elsewhere, iron ore slipped further to $104.50/tn as demand concerns continue to weigh on major commodities.

In the FX space, short term traders were quick to sell Euro prior the ECB meeting while demanding more Loonie and Dollar. Medium term traders seemed more bullish as Swiss flipped to offer while Aussie and Kiwi advanced further in the demand territories. Long term investors however seemed more cautious as Swiss led the demand with Loonie and Aussie while King Dollar retreated in demand.

On Thursday, markets expect a higher volatility as more earnings reports come in from Danaher (DHR), AT&T (T), Philip Morris (PM), Union Pacific (UNP), Blackstone (BX), SAP SE (SAP), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Snap (SNAP) and Mattel (MAT) as well as the latest US jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index and leading indicators.


At a juncture. The Aussie seemed to be turning around as our sentiment model shows the pair is bullish medium and long term while looking to pullback in the short term. The motive wave structure points to upside move if 0.6680 remained supported. Deeper pullback to 61.8% circa 0.6780 or near the weekly pivot is possible.


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