STATE OF THE MARKETS
Stocks jumped on strong earnings reports. US stocks jumped higher on Thursday after major banks reported stronger than estimated Q3 earnings. Major indexes from Dow (+1.56%) to S&P (+1.71%) and Nasdaq (+1.73%) to Russell (+1.44%) all in the green, though some flights to safety were seen as bond prices rose and yields fell. The US 10Y fell to 1.52% while the 30Y to 2.02% as the Dollar dipped to 93.75 before settled higher above the 94 handle.
In the commodities market, crude was back on bids after Saudi denied calls to increase OPEC supplies, though EIA reported increased US inventories. The black gold settled around $81.30/bl and still climbing to $82/bl at writing. Inflation fears sent gold higher, piercing the $1,800/oz barrier, before settling lower around $1,795.55/oz. Elsewhere, iron ore climbed higher to $122.80/tn as markets expect supply crunch due to global supply chain issues and mining slowdowns.
In the FX space, sentiments were seen more bullish than Wednesday as Kiwi, Aussie and Loonie led the demand in short, medium and long term accounts as Dollar and Yen were offered. Medium and long term investors remain cautious with Swiss remains in bids alongside Dollar and the Comdolls. Yen pairs were spinning higher as news hit the wires that Japan’s Finance Ministry will be issuing more longer dated JGBs to lift its economy. US consumer sentiments and retail sales will be in the spotlight on Friday.
OUR PICK – No New Pick
No new pick going into the weekend. It didn’t surprise us that the 3 months of consistent outflow from the US equities has finally expressed itself in the form of a downward motive wave in the Dow. At the same time, we saw heavy bids in gold/silver and mining ETFs have outpaced the demand in bonds ETFs. The Fed will have to announce its tapering plan next month to retain investors’ confidence as some parts of the markets are already hedged for tapering delay and/or later/no hike. With more than $28 trillion of liabilities in the Fed’s balance sheet, rate hike would spike the interest payments. But such is the price of investors’ confidence.
Trades updates:
Equities: Currently we are holding 8 stocks – 7 longs and 1 short. We are long AUY (21% undervalued) with dividends yielding 2.74%, T (20% undervalued) at 8.12% yields and COG (CTRA) (9% undervalued) yielding 2.12%. CLVS is currently 20% overvalued with -7.19 z-score but Tudor Investment had stepped in recently and we decided to hold. We remain bullish with VIPS (43% undervalued with 5.59 z-score), GT (47% undervalued with 1.28 z-score) and CRON (15% undervalued with 9.18 z-score) while bearish GE (26% overvalued with 1.36 z-score).
FX & Commodities: NZD/CHF has completed short term targets and AUD/CAD remains active.
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Disclaimer:
This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.