STATE OF THE MARKETS
Stocks mixed as Dollar firm . US stocks closed mixed on Monday as investors continue to weigh earning reports from big tech and recession expectations from the IMF. S&P (-0.12%) and Nasdaq (-0.10%) drifted lower while Dow (+0.09%) and Russell (+1.01%) managed to eke minor gains as the Dollar index firm above the 106 handle. Flight to safety was noted as the longer dated treasuries were sought after, sending yields lower, with the 5Y (2.93%), 7Y (2.86%) and 10Y (2.77%) remained below 3% while the shorter dated 1Y (3.29%), 2Y (3.22%) and 3Y (3.15%) were above 3%. The 30Y was flat at 3%.
In the commodity markets, crude rebounded on short covering as global demand concerns continue to pressure the commodity. The black gold settled above $89.80/bl as New York closed. Fears of rising inflation continue to press gold higher as the metal persists to climb past the $1800/oz handle. Elsewhere, iron ore rebounded to $110.40/tn as short sellers took profits.
In the FX space, short and long term accounts seemed more bullish as Aussie and Kiwi were more in demand while Yen and Dollar were sent to offers. Medium term accounts however demanded more Dollar, Loonie and Euro while Kiwi, Sterling and Yen were offered.
On Tuesday, markets expect a cautious trading ahead of the inflation report on Wednesday while looking for earnings reports from Emerson Electric (EMR), Sysco Corp (SYY), Welltower (WELL), Roblox (RBLX), Trade Desk (TTD), Coinbase (COIN), Akamai Tech (AKAM) and Hyatt Hotels (H) as well as the latest numbers on US small business optimism index and productivity costs.
OUR PICK – No New Pick
We stay on the sideline for now. We see that markets await the inflation figure and the relief rally in stocks is running out of steam. Dollar is firm around the 106 handle with VIX approaching the 20 level as Fed Watch showed 67% probability of a 50 – 75 basis points hike in September. Rising inflation as a recent increase in non-farm hiring may suggest that 75 points are more likely. However, with 2 quarters of contraction in GDP, the Federal Reserve may have to reserve aggressive hikes to prevent severe recession.
Disclaimer:
This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.