STATE OF THE MARKETS
Stocks on relief rally. US stocks were on a relief rally Thursday after investors scooped up the oversold travel stocks in airlines, hotels and casinos. Dow (+1.82%), Nasdaq (+0.83%), and S&P (+1.42%) including Russell (+2.74%) pared earlier losses as bond purchases slowed down and yields ticked higher. The 10Y benchmark rebounded to 1.45% as the Dollar (DXY) regained the 96.20 barrier at writing.
In the commodities market, crude fell sharply close to $62.40/bl before bidders emerged to close the black gold higher around $66.50/bl after OPEC decided to keep production quota. Gold was fixed lower to $1,762.70/oz in New York afternoon as Dollar strength continued to weigh on the yellow metal. Elsewhere iron ore continued its upward trajectory, settling at $103/tn as New York closed after congress approved new spending bills, averting shutdown.
In the FX space, Sterling and Loonie seized the helm of demand from Dollar and Yen in the short term accounts as traders continued to scoop oversold currencies. Medium and long term accounts were little changed. On Friday, markets look for earnings reports from Bank of Montreal (BMO), Big Lots (BIG), Dole (DOLE) and Hibbett (HIBB) as well as the latest US employment figures.
OUR PICK – No New Picks
No new pick going into the weekend. The sell-off from the last two days really did some damage to the charts. The blue chip Dow is now flirting with the 200D moving average (MA) while the Nasdaq and S&P remain above their 50D MA. Short term now look bearish with underlying market breadth deteriorating showing most stocks were under distribution. This is of course not a surprise as outflows have been the trend for the past 20 weeks. With VIX elevated close to the 28 mark and 0.12 put/call ratio in SQQQ, it all shows that investors are cautious and expect further weakness in the near term.
Trades updates:
Equities: Currently we are holding 8 stocks – 7 longs and 1 short. We are long AUY (21% undervalued) with dividends yielding 3.08%, T (20% undervalued) at 9.02% yields and COG (CTRA) (10% undervalued) yielding 2.47%. CLVS is currently 21% overvalued with -7.19 z-score but Tudor Investment had stepped in recently and we decided to hold. We remain bullish with VIPS (42% undervalued with 5.59 z-score), GT (39% undervalued with 1.28 z-score) and CRON (13% undervalued with 9.18 z-score) while bearish GE (14% overvalued with 1.43 z-score).
FX & Commodities: No new trades.
Risk Disclaimer:
This article is for general information purpose only. It is not an investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities/oz. Opinions expressed are of the authors and not necessarily of MFM Securities Limited or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.