Statistical Arb/Pairs trading strategy!

Here it is… I have read the entire thread and I havent seen this one posted before. Please forgive me if I’m wrong!

Thanks

MTF_OverLayChart(yyr).zip (2.08 KB)

I have that indicator. It has same problem as other overlay indicators. Resize.

I also have that indicator, and it does not work… It, as Marijan says, it has problems as other overlay indicators. Vitrite is the best way to do this yet.

I recommend you to do it on EU/GU from 0 hours to 6am CST and close all open trades at 8am CST, that is giving me very good results, low risk, good reward, and you have the rest of the day free, with a nice 1 % daily (or more if you risk more).

It is working good. I changed to a more symmetric measures: 50 SL 10.1 TP, and only place new trade from 0h to 6am CST and close all trades at 8am CST, no mater if they are in profit or in loss.

Thanks for the update and forgive me if you’ve already stated this; what’s the pip divergence that you look for when you enter a trade?
Do you use any other pairs or just eu & gu?
Do you trade this on Mondays and Fridays?
Is the 0 to 6am time window, only for convenience or is that the time that you have the optimal results? Do you still make good results outside of this time window?
So you never had a loss with the 100 SL, 5 TP and that’s why you tightened the stop to 50 pips?

NICE! I see that the strategy working fine for you. :slight_smile:

Hi, I noticed that correlation fails (pairs drift apart) after New York opens. Therefore, trading London session can be good time to trade. Any thoughts on this?

On a slightly related note, trading the correlation, and the general disacussion on this thread has really improved my general inter-currency awareness.

I’ve just taken a long AUDNZD position, not based on correlation, based on completely different setup. I also took a short AUDUSD position, again with different targets and based upon a different setup. However, those two together combine to create a synthetic short NZDUSD. I was comfortable taking these two trades because, when looking at the NZDUSD chart it has been broadly trending down since the end of April (although it has retraced a little recently), but I am happy with that.

My point is, I was aware of the synthetic position (as a result of trading the correlation) and used that information in my analysis which eventually gave me the decision to take the trade. I was simply not considering this type of analysis a year ago, and even if I’m not actually trading this strategy, the knowledge can still be used whilst taking other trading decisions.

I guess that’s a very wordy way of saying, the ideas presented here are always worth considering when taking several different positions…

I look for 10 pip divergence. I do martingale but not on the next 10 divergence, but 10+100.272 and the third is 10+(10+100.272)*0.272 (the 0.272 is the fibonacci extension, just a number I like hehehe)

I’m trading just eu/gu, on the european time.

I trade all days.

The 0-6am CST is because I found when there is more liquidity and the price tends to reverse to the mean better than when there are less liquidity. And yes, I was generating profit everyday some days more than 2 %, some other days about 0.25 %.

I had no loss with 100 SL, but the lot size was very small, and the profits are also very small. Also, one single loss could wipe 20 winners, and about 4 trades daily, that is a complete week. I reduced the stop to increase lot size, and that one single loss only wipes 1 trading day. And yes, I had some loses with the smaller stop loss, but the profits are a lot higher because the increased lot size. The latest measures for TP and SL are not 5/50 but 7/28, or a risk:reward of 4:1, the average trades per day are 4, so one loss only requires 4 profits to recover, or a single trading day.

That’s the reason I’m trading only on London’s time. I’m testing UJ/CadJPY on the American’s time, but is too soon for my tests, also AJ/NJ for Asian/Pacific time.

I do that also :slight_smile: I use harmonic patterns for trading, and after reading this thread of statarb I started looking for correlated pairs trend, and also for deviations from the mean to increase the probability of the trades.

I did a little job on harmonic, because I’m fully dedicated to statarb, but the results for the small trades I did were very good :slight_smile:

Someone with good knowledge of statistics here?

If I want to determine the TP and SL of my trades using a sample of trades, measuring from the open time to the max time I permit the trades to be open all the moves, marking the peaks and valleys of profit and loss (peaks are when the profit was at a max value and returns to zero, valleys when the price is when the price was at a min value and then returns to zero).

What I want to know is if is correct to calculate the average profits and loss separately using all the positive results for the median value of the profit and the negative results for the median value of the loss, and then use the same values for the standard deviations, or I should be using all the data including all the peaks and valleys to calculate the median and then get the standard deviation on that set of data.

Thanks.

If you’re attempting to determine the median open time for profits and losses separately then you’ll have to calculate them separately. If you want to determine total median open time, then you’ll combine the two and just calculate a single number for all open times. It sounds like you’re looking to do the first of these.

Thanks Medisoft for the thorough response. Your new TP of 7 pips. Does that include the spreads?

yes, 7 pips of net profit after the spreads. I limit the spread to 4 pips for each pair. Of course, less is better.

I am currently using the trading pairs GBP and AUD. I was trying to avoid the EUR. What pairs are ya’ll using? Is there a pair that is better to use then others. I did check the correlation tables.

Thanks

I have been avoiding eur too, as well as chf

Anyone notice that everything seems to be really correlated today? as in not many opportunities ?

I’ve been trading EU/GU constantly. Had no problems, all trades ended in profits. Today I traded only late NY session, I’ve been busy earlier, but I still made 7 pips.

Yes it is. :frowning:

Pipcompounder did you end up trying that out?