Statistical Arb/Pairs trading strategy!

Hello please can someone explain to me. If I draw two lines and see only one. Then later see two lines, how I begin to calculate this all? When i can put more orders when i see two lines instead one? Thanks and sorry for my English

I think somewhere in this thread there is a post saying the max divergence is about 7800,
But so far I havenā€™t been over 200 pips, well not that I have seen, but then I havenā€™t really been paying too much attention!

hi Oops hows your trades going?

Thanks for asking,
Itā€™s been going good!
I had a messy last week but that was my own fault, so Only 1 trade last week! (got the charts mixed up)
still came out in profit!!!
Iā€™m up 17.5% At the mo, although since last night I have a ā€œNull pointer exceptingā€ (java prob)
So I am unable to load Oandaā€™s platform!!!
Very frustrating,
Hope I dont need to reformat PC to fix it!!!

your using MetaTrader? click properties, common tab, click scale fix, then use the scroll to place the lines on top of each other

Thats funny im also having problems with both my brokers platforms, and i have to uninstall and reinstall every time i want to open metatrader, annoying.
Wow 17.5% are you playing with real money, and whatā€™s your strategy are you using a SL

and what time frame is that?

I pretty much trade sizes that when maxed out leave me 250-300 pips of headroom, and Iā€™ve only seen max 105 pip gap on 1 min Tā€¦no SL

Now, what about EU/GU today??? Great gaps, even grater moves! :slight_smile:

Measure the divergence with the measuring tool of your trading softwareā€¦ Kelton suggested 20 pips visual divergence to place new trade, 40 for second and 60 for third, no more.

I placed that post. That divergence is somewhere between September 1999 to May 2012ā€¦ I donā€™t stored the date of that divergence.

1 minute time frame

Yeah! I got 1.65% today! that was great!

Hi guys,

How do you trade this strategy with a SL and TP? Do you place it on both trades? Or do you use a basket EA thatā€™ll close your orders when the total reaches a certain point?

I know EAā€™s like that do exist - but I just want to find out practically how it works for you guys?

Also, how do you determine the pip distance? If I cross hair drag to determine on my charts I get 2 differing values eg. 20 pips on EG = 7 pips on EU chart (distance wise).

Thanks!

Iā€™m testing GBPCHF/USDCHF, they are also correlated pairs. Iā€™m trading it on European time, Iā€™m going to test it for at least 100 trades, and will post the results.

In addition Iā€™m testing EU/GU, AUDUSD/NZDUSD, AUDJPY/NZDJPY and CADJPY/AUDJPY

The same, I will post the results after 100 trades :).

The only one I had tested on real live account is EU/GU with pretty good results :), so I recommend to continue with it with Keltonā€™s method, it works and works pretty good :slight_smile:

I trade with a basket EA. You canā€™t trade it with fixed SL/TP if trading the synthetic pair. If trading the combined pair (like EURGBP for EU/GU) you can use SL/TP there.

And yes, that type of EAs existsā€¦ in this thread, I made it and shared it here :slight_smile: so check the thread for it :slight_smile:

Only measure on one of them. I use EU as a primary pair, and do the measures on it, overlayed with vitrite.

Hi there Medi,

Thank you for your response mate! Iā€™ve noticed that youā€™re probably the forerunner of this system. (Been following silently for quite a while now) Iā€™ll find your EA - thank you for sharing!

I have an idea that I would like to share with you - Iā€™ll send it to you in a PM.

Regards

Meh, tried to PM but I cant yetā€¦ I guess it wont hurt to just share it hereā€¦

Well, here goes.

On the FF thread that was loosely based on this system someone once mentioned about developing an EA that places ā€˜Phantomā€™ orders in order to determine a gap. For some reason that has stuck with me and I find myself often wondering about that concept. Right now we have to overlay 2 charts on top of each other in order to determine a gap - which has its benefits, but it has its DDā€™s as well eg. Eyes glued to charts, scaling problems etc.

Well, what I am proposing is the following:

To code an indicator/EA that places ā€˜Phantomā€™ trades at the moment its thrown on the chart. When do we place it on the chart? Well, we still use the overlaying method and when the gap is zero, or very close to it. The EA/indicator will place 2 phantom trades the same way weā€™re doing now. Once price widens between the 2 currencies by say 20 pips (externally editable) we get an alert. Now this can widen in any direction - whether the phantom trades nett -20 pips or +20 pips, regardless, thereā€™s a gap of 20 pips either way and MT4 alerts us and we can take a trade. It would be nice if the EA/indie does draw a line on the chart to show the ā€˜gapā€™ of 20+ pips as well as numerical display to accompany itā€¦

Iā€™m not sure if this would even work - the logic seems sound thou. Now, instead of only relying on a visual interpretation of the gap, we are using price itself to tell us.

What do you think? The EA/Indi would probably need to be reset after every trade/once a day - not sure yet, will need to test it. But I really do think that something like this could work as an alternate method of determining gaps (and probably more accurate tooā€¦)

Anyhow, fire away, could this work?

Kind regards,

Your logic is sound, I agree with you. But, I think that the problem with this EA/indi is that it would have to be able to collect data from two mt4 instances, the ones we use for overlay. I donā€™t know is it possibleā€¦

Hi there Marijan,

Well I think it shouldnt be a problem for the EA to gather the data from the same instance. Lets say you have 2 MT4 platforms. MT4A & MT4B.

We overlay MT4A & MT4B on top of each other and notice there is no gap. From there we apply the EA to MT4A. EA on MT4A places a phantom order for buy on EU and a phantom order for sell on GU on the same platform. From here Gap widens to +20 or -20 pips, that doesnt matter; all we know is there is a gap of 20 pips. EA gives us an alert (all still from MT4A) that there is a gap of 20 pips based on price. From here you could double check the gap on MT4B overlay if you want to. But actually, MT4B would only really need to be used at the start of the day/trading session to make sure the charts are aligned. Other than that - you should technically be able to trade based on the phantom orders alone (or price).