Statistical Arb/Pairs trading strategy!

I’m inside EU/GU. Have 5 baskets, and waiting for the convergence of the pairs.

The worst right now has 171 pip loss, and with all the baskets in loss, I’m only with 3.64 % drawdown. This method is a system that requires patience and endurance hehehehe

And avoid swap interest! with a swapfree account, to allow the trades to be open for loooong time.

I’m in it with you!!! I have 4.5% DD All in loss! :slight_smile:
I also have AJ NJ
good news though,
Look at daily EU GU
And 8hr AJ NJ! Salvation lies within!

wish i avoided swap interest!!!

here are my 2 positions

top is 1 day eur gbp/usd

bottom is 8hr audnzd/usd



Has anyone actually tried this strategy for a sustained period of time? ie more than a year?

At face value, it seems like a faultless strategy, and it definitely got me excited. I’ve already downloaded the opacity software, and installed another mt4 to superimpose.

However, I am concerned that profit from strings of successful orders achieved through this method will be wiped out with one big loss.

You see, although the charts always come back together at some point, that’s because the y-axis scale is constantly changing every 15 minutes, which actually help the pairs coincide. Granted, there is some close relationship between the pairs, but there may be times where the pairs have drifted further apart, but actually appear closer on the superimposed charts due to the changing y-axis.

Therefore i’m questioning whether anyone has used this method consistently making month to month profits with no significant loss wiping out profits?

Just now saw this thread and instantly got interested in it. Based on some initial pages, I went thru, below is how you guys enter trade. Someone please correct if its otherwise:

  1. On EURUSD chart overlay GBPUSD (or any arbitrage pair).
  2. When relative difference is equal to 20 then sell the higher pair and buy the lower pair.
  3. Cash in when total profit reaches your desired level.
  4. If trade goes on loss and relative difference is more than 40, then again sell the higher pair and buy the lower one.
  5. Keep on doing it if relative difference increases.
  6. Cash in on total profit.

I already have such indicator which shows relative movement of 2/3 pairs but have never thought of trading like arbitrage hedging. Let me find out that indicator and will post it here soon…

Exactly right, although I open my second trades at -120! Doesn’t happen very often but I,m trying to reduce draw down…

Thanks. How its going so far…how much drawdown you see.??? do you see it profitable./?
Where you open your first pair positions.?? at relative difference 20.?? and how you calculate the relative difference.?? How its going so far…do you see itprofitable./?

Been ok for 3 months, got 5% DD at the mo, but hey ho that’s trading!!! (2 positions open)
Worst DD was 30% totally my fault … Forgot NFP!
I just overlay the 2 charts in MT4 then count the pips between the gap.
When I’m in a trade I just look to see how many pips down I. Am then add accordingly.

Myfxbook account is posted in newbie island in post your fx book thread.

OOP can you give a link to your FX book on here? Can’t find the thread you mentioned.

Thanks!

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/thr66/won-ton-soup/293826.

Not at my pc ATM so link might be a bit dodgy!

I’m in the process of doing exactly that. I found that with good MM you can resist the most extreme divergences and still get out with a profit, but that is going to give you a patience game… some times the trades will last for days, weeks or even months.

Like the ones we are in at the mo! 7 days of not much!

Wow med! Just saw how many trades you got open!!! Really loaded the boat there!!!

How do you account for daily roll over fees when you are holding positions for that long?

you just have to pay them i suppose!
I haven’t had a situation where I have closed in profit, but lost because of fees!

If you are committed to holding them for a long as a month, or even longer, roll over fees (depending on broker) for multiple positions will be surprisingly hefty… Just an FYI

Thanks rof eht sdaeh pu, (too tired to put it right)
But I haven’t had a problem yet!

also I have been thinking about this trading style some more…

What I have been doing is just trading 1 pair at a time with the max number of units i am happy with…

I am thinking of cutting down the units a lot, but concentrate on more pairs to spread the risk about a bit.
so i don’t have all my eggs in 1 basket…

heres a chart Eur/jpy cad/sgd.

400 pip divergence on the 1 day chart,
it’s not on my list of charts to trade, but hey! why not open a small position!


When you say you count the pips between both pairs is that not like comparing apples to oranges. Perhaps its my overlay indicator that I use. But the price quoted is always of the base chart for which the overlay indicator is attached to. So counting the pips between both pais exclusively using the drag and hold crosshairs option will always differ depending on just how zoomed out or in you are on the chart. Just a thought.

On mt4 I count them manually! always fully zoomed out,
But you are right sometimes the pip value of the underlying chart is slightly different from the overlying chart, but so far I haven’t had an issue with it.

Really keen on getting involved in this method, but i have a full time job.

Do you literally have to keep checking the charts every 15-30mins for coincidence? If not, it could easily be missed very quickly.